In the final stages of the US presidential election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Trump have support rates of 44% and 43% respectively. Harris’ lead has narrowed to just 1 percentage point.
The three-day poll showed that the support rates for both candidates were neck and neck, with a margin of error of about plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Since entering the race in July, Vice President Harris has consistently led former President Trump in every poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos among registered voters. However, her lead has been shrinking since late September. In the previous poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos from October 16 to 21, Harris led Trump by two percentage points.
The survey covered 1,150 American adults, including 975 registered voters. Results indicated that on several pressing issues, Trump was notably ahead of Harris in the eyes of the voters.
When asked which of the two candidates they believed would be more capable in handling economic, unemployment, and employment matters, 47% of the respondents chose Trump, while 37% chose Harris.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has maintained an advantage on economic matters. In the latest poll, 26% of respondents considered employment and the economy to be the most pressing issue in the US, while the proportions of respondents seeing political extremism and immigration as the most pressing were 24% and 18% respectively.
One of Trump’s biggest advantages may lie in his immigration policy. He has proposed stringent measures, including large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants. In the recent poll, about 48% of voters deemed Trump’s immigration policy better, compared to 33% who favored Harris.
The poll also suggested that Harris’ lead on political extremism issues is diminishing. Around 40% of respondents believed she would handle political extremism and threats to democracy better, while 38% of Trump’s supporters chose him. In the previous poll, Harris led Trump by 7 percentage points on extremism issues.
On Tuesday night, Harris delivered what her campaign team referred to as the “final important pre-election speech” at an outdoor rally near the White House. During the event, she emphasized Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 Capitol incident, stating that Trump supporters sought to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Trump retaliated by stating that Harris’ views were extremely radical, likening them to handing over the US government to socialists.
Even if Harris manages to maintain a slight lead, it may not be enough to win the election on November 5.
While national polls reflect voter sentiments, the key to victory lies in the electoral college votes of individual states, with seven crucial swing states potentially tipping the balance. The polls indicate that in these battleground states, the support for Harris and Trump is evenly split.
In the 2016 election, Trump secured 304 electoral votes, surpassing Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s 227 votes, despite Clinton leading in the national popular vote by a margin of two votes.
Given the close competition between the two candidates, ensuring that supporters actually vote could be crucial in determining the outcome.
According to estimates from the US Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center, two-thirds of American adults voted in the 2020 election, marking the highest voter turnout in over a century.
The latest poll shows that about 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans say they will definitely vote. This suggests that voter enthusiasm may be higher this year compared to four years ago.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late October 2020, 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans indicated that they would definitely vote.
In the most recent poll, among the most likely voters, Harris leads Trump by 47% to 46%, a margin of 1 percentage point.