In recent days, the A-share market has been experiencing intense volatility, causing a stir in the stock analysis community. The debate over the saying “rapid rise must come with a rapid fall” has led to a continued exchange of words between Ren Zeping, former chief economist of Evergrande Group, and prominent private equity investor and chairman of Eastern Harbor, Dan Bin. On October 15, the official accounts of Ren Zeping and Dan Bin on various social media platforms were banned from posting.
According to reports from “Daily Economic News” and “21st Century Economic Report,” on October 15, the WeChat public account “Ze Ping Macro” and related video accounts of Ren Zeping displayed messages stating that the accounts were in violation of regulations and not available for follow or read.
Ren Zeping’s latest Weibo post was on the night of October 13, where he emphasized the importance of boosting confidence in the private economy and highlighted the immediate effects of central fiscal expenditures.
Previously, Ren Zeping had deleted tweets engaging in a back-and-forth with Dan Bin as well as all related posts questioning performance metrics. The remaining posts on his Weibo are mostly aligned with official positions. On October 10, he wrote, “It’s surprising that there are still bears on China. I believe that such viewpoints carry significant risks.”
At the same time, Dan Bin’s WeChat public account also faced restrictions and was labeled as “unavailable for follow.”
Furthermore, Dan Bin, who used to post over ten Weibo updates daily, had not posted after interacting with netizens on the morning of October 14. In the early hours of October 14, Dan Bin responded to economist Ren Zeping’s criticisms, stating, “Ren Zeping disregards facts, distorts information, and lacks the objective spirit of an economist! This ‘exchange’ with Mr. Ren ends here. The clear one stays clear…” It’s noted that this tweet was deleted on the 15th.
Additionally, Dan Bin revealed on his social media circle that his Weibo account was banned from posting for 15 days.
Previously, the Cyberspace Administration of China had launched a crackdown on financial information from “self-media,” accusing them of distorting the interpretation of China’s economic policies and spreading negative sentiments about the economy.
In anticipation of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, which falls on October 1, the central bank announced significant monetary stimulation and support measures for the real estate market starting September 24. This led to a rapid surge in China’s three major stock indices, reaching new highs seen in months.
On October 2, Dan Bin bluntly commented on the A-share surge, stating, “With such rapid growth, there will be a rapid decline. If trapped again this time, all mobilization efforts will be in vain, and there will be no prospect of relief.” These remarks drew strong criticism from industry insiders and supporters, including Ren Zeping, who was previously hired as the chief economist of Evergrande.
On October 11, Ren Zeping posted on Weibo criticizing unconventional viewpoints that not only missed the mark but also bet against the Chinese economy and public policies at a critical time, terming it as “eating the Chinese’s food while smashing their bowls” and warning against being a “traitor.” Commenters speculated that Ren Zeping’s comments were directly aimed at Dan Bin, with one user suggesting a clash between the two and alleging that Ren had sent the message directly to Dan.
On the morning of October 12, Dan Bin responded to Ren Zeping’s statements, emphasizing that as an economist, one should be rational and objective rather than resorting to conspiracy theories or populism to divert attention. Later that afternoon, Ren Zeping, in a separate tweet, criticized the performance of Eastern Harbor and advised individuals not to bear a negative outlook on the Chinese market.
According to Chinese media reports, the A-share market continued to surge until October 8, followed by sudden fluctuations, leading to ongoing market turbulence. On October 9, more than 5000 stocks across the board plummeted, with over 3000 stocks falling by over 9%, and shares of 854 companies hitting the limit down.
On October 11, the A-share market experienced another general drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index plunging by over 2.5% and momentarily slipping below the 3200-point mark, while the Growth Enterprise Market plummeted by over 5.5%. Trading volume across the two markets significantly declined. On October 15, all three major stock indices in the A-share market collectively nosedived, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 2.53% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index falling by 3.22% at the close.
Regarding the rare surge in the A-share market, Xu Zhen, a seasoned participant in China’s capital market, shared with Da Ji Yuan that the authorities alone cannot rescue the stock market through policies. Looking at the fundamentals of the economy and employment, given the current situation, there is no strong foundation for the stock market to thrive, as listed companies’ performances are continuously declining, lacking the capacity to sustain prolonged high stock prices.