Recently, Xi Jinping made an inspection tour in Chongqing. According to official media reports, on April 23, Xi Jinping visited the Army Medical University to inspect the university’s basic situation, the key disciplines of battlefield medical treatment, and observe demonstrations of combat first aid equipment and trainees’ operations. He emphasized the need to “face the battlefield, face the troops, and face the future” and to “effectively serve the combat effectiveness of the forces.” The report also mentioned that the Army Medical University has developed distinct characteristics and advantages in high-altitude military medicine, war trauma medicine, and burn medicine through long-term education practices, and it adheres to the principle of “military-oriented education”.
Xi’s actions undoubtedly once again convey a message of “preparation for war.” In recent years, the top leadership in Beijing has continuously signaled preparations for war, suggesting that the Chinese Communist Party may launch a war in the Taiwan Strait at some point. On April 19, during the establishment ceremony of the CCP’s Information Support Forces, Xi emphasized the need to “focus on preparing for war, in accordance with the strategic requirements of systematic integration and comprehensive support.”
In a high-level national security meeting in May 2023, Xi instructed the CCP to prepare for “extreme” situations, including potential conflicts with the West.
In January 2021, in Order No. 1 signed by Xi, a training mobilization order was issued to the entire military, instructing them to “focus on preparing for war,” “comprehensively improve training to enhance combat capabilities,” promote exercises from the aspects of real combat training, joint operations and training, strong technological training, and law-based training, and to “ensure readiness for combat at all times and be able to fight at any moment.”
A study report released by the Australian think tank “China Matters” also pointed out that Xi Jinping, unlike past Chinese leaders, is determined to resolve the Taiwan issue during his term. In January 2023, General Michael Minihan, head of the U.S. Air Mobility Command, also indicated on social media the possibility of a U.S.-China conflict in 2025.
Xi’s latest “prepare for war” moves indicate that Beijing has not abandoned its intentions to use force against Taiwan. What does this mean for U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, who is currently visiting China?
According to foreign media reports, Blinken, who arrived in Shanghai on the 24th, will discuss issues such as the Taiwan Strait, countering the spread of fentanyl, CCP assistance to Russia, the South China Sea, and more with Chinese officials during his three-day visit. From the cold treatment Blinken has received from the CCP, the analysis and comments by official media, as well as Xi’s war-preparation signals, it can be inferred that Blinken’s trip, like his visit last year, may not yield significant results.
Last June, when Blinken arrived in Beijing, he was greeted by Yang Tao, Director of the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs North America and Oceania Division, and U.S. Ambassador Branstad. There was no red carpet prepared, and no welcoming ceremony arranged. This year was no different, and the CCP officials welcoming him were downgraded once again, with Shanghai’s Foreign Affairs Office Director Kong Fu’an receiving him.
Beijing’s actions not only demonstrate its indifference towards Blinken but also reveal its pettiness in lacking diplomatic etiquette. Perhaps Beijing intends to express dissatisfaction with the U.S. government through this “humiliation” of senior U.S. officials, warning the U.S. to not cross the red line and also garnering public support at home for the CCP’s “tough stance.”
An analysis article in the official media Global Times on the 25th suggested that there is still a considerable “temperature difference” in the issues and demands focused on during this visit between China and the U.S. Beijing believes that both countries have a mutual “recent goal” in maintaining the basic stability of U.S.-China relations before the end of Biden’s term, so the U.S. needs to maintain communication with Beijing, manage basic disagreements, but further progress poses significant challenges.
Russian news agency TASS cited Qian Yaxu, a researcher at the Southwest Jiaotong University’s Regional and National Studies Center, who believes that the U.S. adopts a strategy of “carrot and stick,” often exerting pressure before negotiations in the hopes of gaining more benefits during the talks. He believes that the Chinese authorities will not accommodate possible “strategic shows” from the U.S.
The author believes that Chinese experts, even those in Zhongnanhai, have a misconception that, although there are significant differences between the U.S. and China, Biden is unlikely to act harshly against the CCP before the election, as it is necessary to maintain U.S.-China relations. However, the passage of major legislation by both legislative chambers in the U.S., including provisions for funding Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and imposing sanctions on China for its aid to Russia, along with the persistently negative public perception of the CCP in the U.S. reflect the possibility that Biden, to appeal to voters, may take a tough stance against China.
So, what kind of confidence does Zhongnanhai have to believe that the U.S. will not act decisively? Particularly as Blinken and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen continue to issue severe warnings regarding CCP aid to Russia, with the U.S. considering sanctions against Chinese banks aiding Russia, and preparing to implement further trade measures against China, including raising import tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products.
Evidently, the CCP’s “humiliation” of Blinken has not achieved its intended purpose. There is a rumor online that Blinken declared upon his arrival in Beijing: “There is only a 1% chance, but I will make 100% effort!” Whether this statement is true or not, it is clear that the U.S. does not hold high hopes for reaching consensus with the CCP on issues concerning the Taiwan Strait, combating fentanyl proliferation, CCP assistance to Russia, the South China Sea, etc. Blinken’s visit to Beijing should be considered the last effort by the U.S. If senior CCP officials in Zhongnanhai do not heed advice, continue military support for Russia, and intensify war preparations, the likelihood of the U.S. unleashing its ultimate weapon is high.