During a NATO summit in Washington, DC, where member countries gathered, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Belarusian military initiated a joint military exercise in Europe. Renowned China expert Gordon Chang warned that this signifies a new threat from the CCP towards Europe, and NATO must be cautious of Beijing’s further involvement in European conflicts.
Chang, a senior researcher at the Gatestone Institute in New York, penned an article for Newsweek on Friday, analyzing the CCP’s latest military movements and the international security landscape.
“Since the conflict began, China has provided everything except troops to Russia,” Chang warned in his article, suggesting that if Russian forces face defeat in Ukraine, the CCP might potentially deploy troops, akin to Mao Zedong’s intervention in the Korean War.
“Everyone believes that China has brought threats to Asia. Now, it appears to be the case for Europe as well,” Chang stated.
The 11-day joint exercise, dubbed “Eagle Assault-2024,” has raised concerns as both sides claim it to be an “anti-terrorism drill”, yet signs indicate that they are practicing large-scale formation operations. The exercise location is less than two miles from the border of NATO member country Poland and only 17 miles from Ukraine.
Chang admitted that the likelihood of the People’s Liberation Army of China fighting alongside Russian forces is low at present, and there is no friendship between Chinese and Russian leaders. The CCP’s deployment of troops to Belarus, potentially irking Moscow and seen as diminishing Belarus’s reliance on Russia, highlights the complexity of the situation.
However, the ongoing exercise serves as a signal that the CCP may be willing to encourage Belarus’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“Belarus is essentially a belligerent in the Ukraine war,” Chang pointed out. At the start of the conflict, Belarus allowed Russian forces to use its territory to launch attacks on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
Moreover, to showcase a close relationship with Belarus, Putin transferred the Iskander missile system with portable nuclear warheads before the end of 2022. Last year, Russia also delivered tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“As stated in NATO’s ‘Washington Summit Declaration’ on the 10th of this month, China has become a decisive driver for Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Chang believes. NATO’s view is correct that “Since the conflict began, China has provided everything except troops to Russia.”
North Korea is the CCP’s sole formal military ally, and there have been reports suggesting that North Korea may dispatch combat engineers to assist Russian forces stationed in Ukraine. Last month, North Korea and Russia signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” which includes mutual defense clauses.
Chang believes that North Korea heavily relies on Beijing’s support, surpassing the levels seen since the mid-1990s. Therefore, at least the CCP does not oppose North Korea’s alignment with Russia.
“If the situation necessitates, China can also deploy troops,” Chang noted. Despite tense relations between Beijing and Moscow, Xi Jinping evidently believes he cannot let Russia fail. After all, Putin is his partner in overthrowing the international order led by the West.
Chang suggests that the CCP prefers others to take a stand for them, making Russia crucial to its expansion plans. In light of this, NATO and the United States must be prepared for potential further CCP involvement in the Russia-led conflicts in Europe in the future.