Xi’s high-ranking military officer arrested: Political situation may change.

Hello to the audience! Welcome to watch “Century Truths”.

Recently, the detention of Mi Hua, the “closest confidant of Xi Jinping” and the “political commissar among political commissars” of the Chinese Communist Party, has become a major news story that has rocked the world.

On November 28, 2024, Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian announced at a regular press conference: “Central Military Commission member and Director-General of the Department of Political Affairs Mi Hua is suspected of serious violations of discipline. After research by the Central Committee, it has been decided to suspend Mi Hua for inspection.”

The arrest of Mi Hua had several eerie aspects. In this episode, let’s take a look at these eerie aspects along with the reasons behind them, combined with domestic and international news reports.

The first eerie aspect is that news of Mi Hua’s arrest first surfaced abroad before the Chinese Communist Party confirmed it. Once again, “rumors” have proven to be ahead of confirmed news.

On November 11, 2024, independent commentator Cai Shenkun, living in the United States, posted a message on Platform X: Central Military Commission member and Director of the Political Work Department Mi Hua was taken away for investigation on November 9.

China’s former media person Zhao Lanjian later revealed: “In the Beijing red second-generation circle, rumors about Mi Hua’s arrest were circulating wildly, as Mi Hua was taken away by several soldiers wearing hoods, and many residents of the neighborhood witnessed it.”

The news of Mi Hua’s arrest surfaced overseas more than ten days before the Chinese Ministry of National Defense confirmed it.

Mi Hua’s arrest was made public by the Chinese Communist Party just 19 days after the incident. This was an unusual move and can be described as eerie. Why?

From the time Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 until Mi Hua’s arrest in 2024, six members of the Central Military Commission were investigated. They were former Central Committee members and Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, Zhang Yang, Fang Fenghui, Liang Guanglie, and Wei Fenghe.

After the investigation of these six individuals, the Chinese Communist Party did not immediately release any information. Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, Fang Fenghui, Liang Guanglie, and Wei Fenghe were only announced to be investigated and transferred to judicial authorities by Xinhua News Agency after being expelled from the party; Zhang Yang’s investigation was made public by Xinhua News Agency after his suicide.

The time between their investigation and the official announcement varied: Xu Caihou’s announcement came 2.5 months later; Guo Boxiong’s announcement came 3 months and 21 days later; Zhang Yang’s announcement came 3 months later; Fang Fenghui’s announcement came 9 months and 7 days later; Liang Guanglie’s announcement came 9 months and 27 days later; Wei Fenghe’s announcement came 9 months and 6 days later.

If Mi Hua was indeed arrested on November 9 as mentioned by Cai Shenkun, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced it just 19 days after his arrest.

In addition to the lightning-fast public announcement of Mi Hua’s arrest, the department through which the information was released was also very unusual. The news was not authorized by Xinhua News Agency, the Discipline Inspection Commission, or the Supervisory Committee, but rather by the Ministry of National Defense spokesperson.

Why is it considered eerie that the Ministry of National Defense released the information? Because Mi Hua was both a member of the Central Military Commission and a member of the State Central Military Commission, his rank was higher than deputy national level but lower than provincial or ministerial level.

The rank of the Minister of National Defense is lower than that of a member of the Central Military Commission. Announcing Mi Hua’s investigation from the Ministry of National Defense is equivalent to a lower-level unit announcing the investigation of a higher-level leader, which seems improper and inappropriate.

Furthermore, when the Ministry of National Defense released the news, it stated that Mi Hua was “suspected of serious violations of discipline,” not that a case was under review but rather that he was placed on suspension for inspection.

Previously, when high-ranking officials of deputy ministerial level or higher in the Chinese Communist Party were suspected of serious violations of discipline, the Discipline Inspection Commission or the Military Discipline Commission would “open a case for investigation,” not “suspend for inspection.”

So, why the swift and eerie confirmation process of Mi Hua’s arrest and investigation?

Looking at the fact that the news was first leaked by foreign media makes it easier to understand. Starting from the investigation of Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao in 2022, a group of senior military leaders personally promoted by Xi Jinping have fallen from power, with news first surfacing abroad and later confirmed by the Chinese Communist Party.

Why is this the case? Since Xi came to power and initiated anti-corruption campaigns and military reforms, he has offended many people. If the senior military leaders he personally promoted get into trouble, even though the Xi administration might not immediately make it public for various reasons, dissatisfied individuals within the red second-generation, the military, and high-ranking officials of the Chinese Communist Party will immediately leak the news abroad.

However, in Mi Hua’s case, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced it just 19 days after his arrest. This speed exceeded that of all high-ranking military leaders investigated and dealt with in the 11 years prior.

Why did the Chinese Communist Party accelerate the process? Wang Youqun, former member of the Central Political Bureau and Secretary of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission, believes it may be due to the leadership of Zhang Yuxia, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Since the 20th Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party in 2024, following Xi’s sudden illness, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Yuxia has become a key figure influencing the Chinese Communist Party’s political situation. Under Zhang’s leadership, the power of Xi’s faction within the military has significantly diminished. This is evident from:

(1) Xi’s two key confidants within the military, Zhong Shaojun, Director of the General Office of the Central Military Commission, and Chen Guoqiang, Deputy Secretary of the Central Military Commission Discipline Inspection, were transferred away from the core of the Military Commission.

(2) In three out of the five major military regions of the Chinese Communist Party, the Commanders of the Northern, Central, and Southern Theater Commands were replaced with individuals closely connected to Zhang Yuxia.

(3) Since the summer of 2024, Xi’s promotions, ideological mandates, the Chairmanship of the Military Commission, the “two establishes, two maintains,” and other propaganda closely related to Xi have significantly decreased in circulation, with some reports not even mentioning Xi.

(4) Mi Hua had significant authority over military personnel matters, serving as Xi Jinping’s Minister of Military Organization. Many insider details regarding the appointment of high-ranking military leaders were shared between Xi and Mi. It is unlikely that Xi would actively investigate Mi. It is more likely that Zhang Yuxia had obtained evidence of Mi’s serious violations and pressed Xi to agree to the investigation.

(5) Mi Hua was a key figure in assisting Xi in wielding military power. Through the Ministry of National Defense, Zhang Yuxia quickly made Mi’s investigation public worldwide, dealing a heavy blow to Xi’s influence within the military and sending a serious warning to Xi’s close associates promoted through Mi.

So, why was it decided that the Ministry of National Defense would announce Mi Hua’s investigation?

Dr. Wang Youqun speculates that this decision was related to the current Minister of National Defense Dong Jun’s urgent need to distance himself from Mi Hua.

In August 2023, just five months after assuming office, Li Shangfu, a member of the Central Military Commission, State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense, was investigated for serious violations of discipline and law. On October 24, Li was removed from his position as a member of the Military Commission, State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense. In December, Navy Commander Dong Jun was promoted to Minister of National Defense.

It is likely that Mi Hua recommended Dong Jun for the promotion. Previously serving as the Navy Political Commissar, Dong Jun was subordinate to Mi Hua. After Mi Hua was promoted to Director of the Military Commission’s Political Work Department in 2017, Dong Jun successively rose to Deputy Commander and Navy Commander. Dong Jun’s two promotions were both recommendations made by Mi to Xi Jinping. Dong Jun’s appointment as Minister of National Defense was also recommended by Mi.

Since Mi Hua’s arrest, officials associated with him, such as Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, former Navy Political Commissar Qin Shengxiang, former Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Wang Houbin, who moved from Deputy Commander of the Navy to Commander of the Rocket Force, as well as Minister of National Defense Dong Jun, have all been called in for special questioning. Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang supposedly “committed suicide.”

Throughout history, power struggles within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party, particularly those involving military power, have always been intense battles of survival. It is unlikely that Mi Hua will receive a lenient punishment.

In conclusion, the mysterious circumstances of Mi Hua’s investigation actually reflect the strange nature of the Chinese Communist Party’s political situation. Because Mi Hua was considered the “closest confidant of Xi Jinping” and the “political commissar among political commissars” in the Chinese military at a crucial position, Mi’s downfall may signal significant changes within the Chinese Communist Party’s political landscape.

That’s it for today’s episode. Thank you for watching, and we will see you next time. ◇