Audience friends, hello everyone, and welcome to “Epoch Focus.” What are the major events worth paying attention to today?
Today’s focus: The US-Ukraine rare earth agreement pays back US investment, Russia follows suit, and China is anxious; Urban sprawl into rural areas, state-owned and private enterprises seizing farmland, farmers left with no way out, “Rural Revitalization” shattered.
February 24 marked the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is still ongoing. President Trump brought about a significant turnaround in the war within a month of taking office in January this year. We see that, with active involvement from the US, Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky have taken substantive steps towards peace talks. Despite recent online exchanges between Trump and Zelensky, it has not affected the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. New updates continue to be announced.
On February 24, Trump stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky could visit the US in the next few days, and the two countries are “very close” to reaching an agreement on rare earth minerals.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna confirmed on X on Monday that an agreement between the two sides is imminent. She stated that signing the agreement would “demonstrate our commitment for the coming decades.” Ukrainian officials believe that the agreement will help avoid deteriorating relations with the Trump administration and is a way to establish a long-term partnership with the US.
Trump has mentioned that Ukraine holds significant untapped mineral resources, and this rare earth agreement is a form of US investment in Ukraine. It is expected that the US and Ukraine will soon reach a rare earth agreement worth billions of dollars.
According to media reports, the final draft of the US-Ukraine rare earth agreement has been submitted to the Trump administration. The core of the agreement is to provide a framework for a reconstruction fund for Ukraine, stipulating that Ukraine must contribute $500 billion to the reconstruction fund, but there is no requirement to pay this money to the US. The draft agreement requires Ukraine to pay 50% of the income (minus operating expenses) from “exploitable materials” – including minerals, oil, and natural gas – to this fund.
Details regarding providing security guarantees for Ukraine and other challenging technologies will be discussed later.
On the same day, French President Macron, after meeting with Trump at the White House, stated that both Russia and Ukraine should first cease fire before entering into peace talks. During the ceasefire, Russia, Ukraine, and the West can negotiate Ukraine’s security guarantees. Subsequently, they can sign a peace treaty.
Trump emphasized that the cost and burden of ensuring peace in Ukraine should be borne by European countries, not the US. Macron also indicated that Europe understands the necessity of “fairly sharing security burdens” and is willing to deploy British and French troops in Ukraine for peacekeeping if needed.
On that day, Russian President Putin stated that ultimately, Europe will need to join peace talks, but before that, Russia and the US need to engage in multiple bilateral dialogues to establish trust between the two countries.
Moreover, Putin publicly stated that Russia is willing to cooperate with the US in mining rare earth minerals in Russia and the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia. He is open to reaching energy agreements with the US.
Putin also mentioned agreeing to reduce military spending, suggesting that both Russia and the US cut their military budgets by up to half. He proposed that if China is willing, they could also join the proposal to reduce military arms in the future.
While high-level contacts between the US and Russia are frequent and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are heating up, China has not been invited to participate by either side. Also, on the 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Putin, emphasizing the special relationship of mutual assistance and shared difficulties between China and Russia.
Chen Shimin, a professor of political science at Taiwan University, told Epoch Times that in the Russia-Ukraine war, in front, China is buying Russian oil and gas cheaply or secretly providing Russia with military equipment and advanced semiconductor chips, playing a negative role in assisting Russia against Ukraine.
Long-time political commentator Tang Jingyuan believes that Xi’s call with Putin at this sensitive moment reflects his deep anxiety. He analyzed that Xi Jinping’s anxiety stems from several factors. First, China has been completely excluded from the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Second, China hopes to participate in promoting the peace plan in accordance with the requirements of the parties concerned. Furthermore, China has always viewed rare earths as a key card in the technological war against the US, but Russia is willing to cooperate with the US in developing rare earths. So for Xi Jinping, there is a lot of fear.
He believes that the changes in relations between the US and Russia, especially the smooth dialogue between the two sides, are also reasons that China cannot contain. In the past, China and the US jointly contained the Soviet Union and later Russia, but in recent years, China and Russia have begun to challenge American authority together. With the opportunity of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, China may again be faced with a situation where the US and Russia join forces to contain China. The outcome of this grand drama involving the three major powers will depend on who can take the lead. However, it is more likely that Russia will move closer to the US.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun believes that the solutions proposed by Trump are acceptable to Putin. So China must step in and play a role, but to a large extent, it is a disruptive role aiming to further divide and weaken the US-Europe alliance through the conditions presented by Russia and Ukraine.
Now, let’s look at the situation in rural areas under the governance of China. On February 23, the Central Committee and the State Council of the Communist Party of China jointly issued this year’s first central government document titled “Opinions on Further Deepening Rural Reform and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization,” marking the fifth consecutive year centered around “Rural Revitalization” and related to the “Three Rural Issues,” i.e., agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Commentators believe that what the CCP is doing in practice is just creating chaos. Rural revitalization has become a failure, with state-owned interest groups grabbing farmland and farmers having no way out.
This document includes six sections covering important agricultural products supply guarantees like food, “consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation,” “strengthening county-level industries that enrich the people,” and focusing on rural construction, among others.
The document points out that the international environment is complex and severe, with increasing uncertainties and unpredictabilities facing China’s development, necessitating stronger implementation of work related to the “Three Rural Issues.”
王赫, a China issues specialist, told Epoch Times that China’s current economic situation is quite dire, coupled with the various heavy blows from the US Trump administration. The uncertainty for China’s economy in 2025 is very high, and it is difficult to say whether the “Three Rural Issues” policy outlined in the first central government document can be effectively implemented.
Commentator Li Linyi believes that over the past few years, the CCP has been promoting the so-called “Rural Revitalization.” Continuing this concept this year indicates that past measures have been ineffective, with money being embezzled layer by layer and achieving nothing. Under the manipulation of various levels of government, “Rural Revitalization” has turned into a farce, essentially ending in failure.
The CCP’s implementation of rural revitalization has led to many jokes. For example, in 2020, it was announced that the entire country had lifted itself out of poverty, but the Rural Revitalization Bureau of Shanxi Province spent nearly 9 million RMB the following year to purchase a monitoring system for preventing a return to poverty, sparking ridicule online.
Before the concept of “Rural Revitalization” emerged, Xi Jinping had personally promoted the “Toilet Revolution.” Villages across the country began a frenzy of “Toilet Revolution,” consuming huge sums of money, with many toilets ending up abandoned. Xinhua News Agency in 2021 criticized the “Toilet Revolution” saying it was a “face project.”
Tang Renjian, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs within the CCP who was taken down in May last year, had led controversial initiatives during his tenure, such as the “Rice Grown on Mountains” and the much-criticized “Farm Management Teams.”
A blogger stated that the once-popular “Rice Grown on Mountains” project, which cost billions at the time, now lies in ruins. The billions in funds for rural revitalization have all been embezzled into the pockets of a few people, with no connection to farmers.