Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has ordered an investigation into imposing tariffs on imported copper. US government officials stated that the copper manufacturing industry should return to the United States to curb the strategic expansion of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China has the largest production of copper processing materials in the world, and the CCP controls many copper resources globally, attempting to increase its international influence. Experts have remarked that this move by the US will have broad implications as part of the comprehensive strategic competition between the US and China.
President Trump signed an executive order on February 25th, initiating an investigation into the possibility of imposing tariffs on imported copper, indicating that this policy will have “significant implications”. The investigation will be conducted under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act, granting the president broad powers to implement trade restrictions based on national security. Trump previously used this authority to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, set to take effect in March. This latest action demonstrates the White House’s ongoing efforts to impose tariffs on a wide range of imported goods and reshape the global supply chain.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that implementing tariffs will help rebuild the US copper industry and enhance national defense. The US industry relies on copper, and copper should be manufactured in the United States. The priority of the US is to create American jobs and safeguard national security. “It is time for copper to come home,” Lutnick emphasized.
Trade and manufacturing industry advisor Peter Navarro stated to the media that this measure aims to prevent the CCP from using the copper industry to expand its influence and address broader national security concerns. Considering potential military and technological needs, the US also aims to revitalize domestic copper exploration, smelting, and refining.
Economist David Huang commented to Dajiyuan that Trump’s actions are clearly targeted at the CCP as China is the world’s largest copper refining country, with China’s refined copper production ranking first in the world in 2024. “This move will have various impacts on the future US-China relationship,” Huang said.
Huang added that this initiative is more of a geopolitical signal, which will lead to the restructuring of global supply chains and strategic materials like copper, intensifying the strategic competition between the US and China.
On February 12th, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with 11 other departments, issued the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027)”, aiming to enhance the resilience of the copper industry supply chain by 2027 and increase domestic copper ore reserves by 5% to 10%.
The plan positions copper as a “strategic resource”, supporting the development of “strategic emerging industries” to establish “international competitiveness”. However, it also acknowledges issues such as insufficient resource security and the need for optimization in the industry structure.
Navarro pointed out that the CCP has long used excess capacity and dumping as economic weapons, dominating the global market, systematically undermining competitors, and driving opponents’ industries into bankruptcy. By heavily subsidizing key industries and exporting products below cost internationally, the CCP gains control once competitors collapse.
Navarro emphasized that the CCP has expanded its economic influence in various sectors using these tactics, including steel, aluminum, solar panels, electric vehicles, and now seeks to gain control of the global copper market using similar means.
Huang stated that the CCP’s actions in the copper market, like in steel and aluminum markets, involve massive control and export to the US below cost, considered as unfair trade practices by the US, provoking the nation.
Huang highlighted that the CCP has control over more than 50% of the global copper industry chain and possesses the most copper mines worldwide. By using low-priced exports and national resources, the CCP aims to dominate the global copper supply chain, expanding its global economic, military, and political influence.
He noted that the US measures aim to “short-term protection of the US copper industry, reducing external dependence, especially in terms of economic, military, and national security protection.” In the medium to long term, “the US seeks to reshape the global copper market layout” to weaken the CCP’s hegemonic position in global resources, particularly in terms of national security resources.
Copper is a vital basic raw material in the world today and a critical strategic resource.
China is the world’s largest refined copper consumer, ranking first in the production of copper processing materials. In 2024, China produced 13.64 million tons of refined copper, accounting for about 49% of the global production; their production of copper processing materials reached 23.50 million tons, ranking first in the world.
Despite this, China’s copper industry faces inherent deficiencies. China’s known copper ore reserves are about 4% of the global total. In 2024, China’s copper concentrate production was 1.72 million tons, accounting for only about 9% of global production, while during the same period, China’s import of copper concentrate reached a record high of 28.11 million tons, with a high dependence rate of 94%.
In recent years, China’s copper industry has continuously expanded overseas. Enterprises like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum Mining, and Minmetals Resources own multiple equity copper mines in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, among others. Zijin Mining, which controls the largest copper reserves and production overseas, has mining operations in 12 countries, with the majority being along the Belt and Road Initiative countries.
Data from the General Administration of Customs of China on February 13th showed that in 2024, China imported 5.684 million tons of unwrought copper and copper materials, a 3.4% increase from the previous year, and imported 28.114 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, indicating a 2.1% increase compared to the previous year. From January to October 2024, China’s major copper ore importing countries were Chile, Peru, and Kazakhstan.
Based on current data, China’s copper industry has not yet established a monopoly position internationally. However, reflecting Navarro’s remarks, the CCP is strategically seeking absolute control over copper in the international market, just like in the field of solar panels and electric vehicles.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned that the US copper industry has been severely impacted by external attacks, leading to significant production losses domestically. “To rebuild our copper industry, I will investigate the possibility of implementing tariffs,” Lutnick stated.
Navarro further explained that Commerce Secretary Lutnick will act on “Trump time” and promptly present the investigation results to the president’s desk, “to take possible actions”.
If the US were to implement tariffs or other trade measures, it could not only affect the CCP regime but also potentially impact major copper supplying countries to the US like Chile, Canada, Mexico, among others.
Huang stated that Trump views copper as a core national security interest since manufacturing weapons, communications, and all electronics require copper. Trump is naturally considering economic and military factors but is primarily focusing on strategic and security concerns, aiming to regain control of copper from the CCP.
He explained that in 1991, the US not only did not require imports of copper but was also an exporter. In just over 30 years, nearly half of the US’s copper relies on imports. Trump’s America First policy aims to protect domestic industries through tariffs, creating new job opportunities.
According to the US Geological Survey, in 2024, the US consumed around 1.6 million tons of refined copper. Data from Morgan Stanley indicates that the US’s net copper imports account for 36% of demand. Chile is the US’s largest copper importer, representing 38% of total imports, followed by Canada (28%) and Mexico (8%). The US is also a major copper producer, with primary copper production reaching around 850,000 tons in 2024.
Some Chinese media outlets have mentioned that due to US actions, the copper industry holds geopolitical risks, prompting companies to expand internationally, enhance international competitiveness, positioning themselves advantageously in the future copper industry landscape.
Huang believes that the US’s tough stance on the copper industry could lead to the following consequences in the future:
First, further decoupling of US-China trade and technology, increasing barriers. The US will limit China’s entry into the global market in critical resources and technology, prompting allies like the EU, Japan, and others to reduce reliance on China.
Second, a global competition for strategic resources. Copper could be a pivotal point, prompting the US to take similar actions regarding other strategic resources like rare earths, lithium, and other metals to compete with China globally for control.
Third, simultaneous military and competitive actions. By increasing US copper production by 70%, the US is also preparing for military contingencies such as in the Indo-Pacific region. The CCP may accelerate military resource reserves; tensions could escalate in the military domain between the two parties.
Fourth, multilateral alliances against unilateral hegemony. The US will inevitably cooperate with allied countries to build a coalition against the CCP; meanwhile, the CCP may consolidate their supply chains through the Belt and Road Initiative and in countries they control in Africa and South America.
Trump’s order to impose tariffs on imported copper has immediately sparked reactions in the international market.
Encouraged by Trump’s plan to bring the copper industry back to the US, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange surged by 2.4%, marking the most significant intraday rise since February 12th. Share prices of listed US copper mining companies were bolstered, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rising over 6% after trading hours.
Huang believes that the US’s measures will impose substantial costs on the CCP, including industry losses due to tariffs, market contraction, potential joint actions by US allies, intensification of US-China conflicts, and more.
“In the short term, the US-China trade war will enter a new phase due to tariffs, leading to increasing trade barriers. In the medium to long term, the US and China’s struggle will become a battle for becoming the world’s economic, military, and political order makers,” Huang concluded.