A recent leading indicator suggests that the United States may see a decrease in job opportunities in the coming months, as weakening employment data was revealed in January.
According to data released by The Conference Board on February 10, the Employment Trends Index (ETI) dropped from 109.23 in December 2024 to 108.35 in January this year. This decline in the index indicates a potential slowdown in employment trends.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on February 7 showed that the U.S. added 143,000 new jobs in January, which not only fell below expectations but also marked a decrease from the 307,000 new positions added in December last year.
On a positive note, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4%, surpassing investor expectations. Wage growth and labor force participation also increased.
Bryce Doty, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Vice President at Sit Investment Associates, told the Epoch Times, “While the employment situation isn’t stellar, the decline in the unemployment rate and strong wage growth indicate that the labor market remains healthy.”
Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that while employment growth may be slowing, January is typically a “noisy month” due to the holiday season’s temporary hiring surge subsiding.
“We are cautiously optimistic about early 2025, but we believe there is much more downside potential this year compared to the past two years, and now is the time to be cautious and reduce risk,” he said.
Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board, noted that despite the dip in the Employment Trends Index (ETI) last month, this decline followed “three consecutive months of increase.”
“Although the labor market has cooled from the pace of 2022, the indicators as of January are broadly consistent with the labor market pre-pandemic,” he said. “Overall, the data for January once again reflects a stable labor market.”
“The high levels of employment, continued real wage growth, and stable labor demand continue to support the momentum of economic development.”
The U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) is a leading indicator of the job market, summarizing eight labor market indicators from various institutions. In January, five out of the eight indicators were negative.
The percentage of people reporting “jobs hard to find” rose for the first time in four months. The proportion of small businesses reporting “positions currently unfilled” remained stable.
According to the latest report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. employers announced 49,795 job cuts in January, a 28% increase from December. However, this figure was down by 40% compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest January job cut count since 2022.
“While the announcement of job cuts was relatively subdued in January,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of the firm, “we have seen some significant layoffs in early February, so this calmness seems unlikely to continue.”
For the entire year, the number of announced job cuts increased by 5.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 761,358, the second-highest annual total since 2009, just behind 2020.
Challenger noted that many companies experienced “unusual changes” last year due to shifts in the economic environment and rapid technological advancements.
“Most employers anticipated increased uncertainty with the new administration, leading to a slowdown in hiring and increased layoffs across industries in the short term,” he said.
Employers’ hiring plans announced in January decreased by 24% compared to the previous month but increased by 13% compared to the same period last year. It was the lowest January value on record.
According to a recent survey by education research site Intelligent.com, recent college graduates may face more challenges in job hunting this year, as many hiring managers hold negative views about them.
The survey conducted at the end of December 2024 polled 1,000 U.S. hiring managers responsible for entry-level positions.
One in eight managers stated they planned to avoid hiring recent college graduates as much as possible. One-third of managers mentioned that these graduates lacked work ethics, while 24% believed they were not prepared for the workplace.
Managers noted that many graduates lacked eye contact during interviews and dressed inappropriately. Last year, 55% of managers regretted hiring recent graduates.
“Recent college graduates need to be aware of the negative perceptions and biases held against them,” said Huy Nguyen, Chief Education and Career Development Consultant at Intelligent.com.
“By understanding what most troubles hiring managers and consciously taking action during interviews, job seekers can increase their chances of leaving a positive impression and standing out among the many applicants.”
Andrew Moran contributed to this report.