In comparison to a few weeks ago, Americans are now spending almost twice as much on eggs. The ongoing cases of avian flu continue to impact the supply chain, with frozen egg storage levels remaining below last year’s levels.
The price of a dozen eggs has risen from $2.11 in early October to the current $4.16, marking an increase of over 97% in less than two months.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated on Friday, November 29th, that “in the past week, California experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu, leading to the deaths of 1.5 million egg-laying chickens, causing supply shortages and driving market prices higher.”
Data from the agency shows a 3% decrease in the number of egg-laying hens in October compared to last year, amounting to 377 million hens. The reduction in hen numbers translates to fewer eggs produced, resulting in price hikes. Frozen egg storage levels have decreased by 22% compared to November 2023, reaching the lowest levels since spring 2023.
The USDA noted that Thanksgiving egg demand was at its lowest level since 2015. However, due to one less week between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, wholesale demand is expected to remain stable.
The agency explained, “Typically, there is a brief dip in wholesale demand shortly after Thanksgiving as people anticipate the start of cookie baking season in December.”
The latest wave of avian flu is disrupting the supply of cage-free eggs. States like California, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon require eggs sold within the state to be from cage-free hens.
Emily Metz, Chair of the American Egg Board, stated, “We need to transfer eggs from other regions that raise cage-free hens domestically to make up for the shortage in these states that only allow the sale of cage-free eggs.”
Chad Hart, professor of agricultural economics at Iowa State University, mentioned that the egg industry is working to rebuild flocks, but this also limits supply since farmers need to preserve some eggs for hatching new chicks.
There is some positive news for US poultry farms, as the cost of chicken feed, which accounts for 70% of farmers’ expenses, has significantly decreased after doubling between 2020 and 2022.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), within the last 30 days up to November 29th, 6.26 million poultry have been affected by the flu. California is the most severely affected state, with over 5.12 million poultry infected.
APHIS stated on November 18th, “Whether a small backyard operation or a large commercial producer, anyone involved in poultry production should review their biosecurity measures to ensure the health of poultry.”
“The US has the most robust artificial intelligence monitoring program in the world, and the USDA is actively working with its partners to detect cases of this disease in commercial poultry operations, live bird markets, and wild bird populations.”
A recent report from the USDA indicated that egg-laying hen flocks are still recovering from the losses suffered in October, with mother hens still being culled in early November.
“The increase in egg prices in 2024 is driven by recent pricing and supply constraints. As supply recovers, egg price forecasts for the first and second quarters of 2025 have also been adjusted upward.”
CDC data shows that since January 2022, over 111 million poultry have been affected by avian flu in the US. 547 counties reported 1,242 outbreaks.
The largest outbreak so far this year occurred in May in Sioux County, Iowa, affecting over 4.28 million poultry. It was followed by an outbreak in Ionia County, Michigan in April, involving 2.42 million poultry.
Avian flu has also spread to humans, with the CDC reporting 55 confirmed cases to date. Among the states, California has reported the highest number of infections at 29, followed by Washington, Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon, and Texas.
While the current public health risk remains low, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation and collaborating with states to monitor individuals who have contact with animals.
(Adapted from Associated Press reporting)