On November 21, 2024, when it comes to Thanksgiving food, Americans seem to have caught a break on their food bills this year after enduring several years of rising prices. According to a report by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the cost of a “classic” Thanksgiving dinner for ten people is estimated to be $58.08, marking a 5% decrease from 2023 and a 9% drop from 2022.
Economists attribute the price drop to various supply and demand factors that have driven down the prices of key Thanksgiving foods, most notably turkeys, as well as an overall decrease in food inflation rates in the United States.
However, despite the decline, the cost of the classic Thanksgiving dinner is still 19% higher than it was in 2019 according to data from the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Economist Bernt Nelson from the American Farm Bureau Federation noted that the fluctuation in turkey prices has had the “single largest impact” on the total cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner. He explained that a 16-pound turkey accounts for 44% of the total grocery bill for Thanksgiving food.
Statistics from the American Farm Bureau Federation show that the national average price of a 16-pound turkey has decreased by 6% compared to 2023. The overall price of turkeys has declined by approximately 4% over the past year according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Nelson mentioned that there has been a significant decrease in the supply of turkeys this year. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that around 205 million turkeys were raised by farmers in 2024, a 6% decline from 2023, marking the lowest figure since 1985 mainly due to the impact of avian influenza.
Due to the reduced supply, prices tend to increase under unchanged conditions. However, consumer demand has also decreased. As a result, the average per capita turkey consumption has decreased by around a pound this year.
Overall, the reduced turkey supply has contributed to the decrease in turkey prices. Nelson also pointed out that the price of whole milk has significantly dropped by 14%, as it is a primary ingredient in pies and other recipes.
However, not everything has become cheaper. The American Farm Bureau Federation reported that prices of processed foods such as stuffing mixes and pie shells have risen by over 8% since 2023.
Robin Wenzel, the head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, suggested that in order to lower the cost of Thanksgiving food, consumers looking to save money on their 2024 Thanksgiving dinner could consider switching to store brands and generic products for certain grocery items.
According to analysis from Wells Fargo, opting for a ten-person meal comprised entirely of store brands and generic food items could save consumers $17.