Hello everyone, welcome to “News Talk,” I’m Fu Yao. Today is February 24th, Monday.
Today’s focus: Russia launches largest-scale attack! Trump mediates ceasefire or escalation? Zelensky to resign? German election changes, where will the European situation go?
Our guests for this episode are: Mark, host of the military channel “Mark’s Space-Time;” Mr. Qin Peng, current affairs commentator and senior political and economic analyst. In addition, earlier, Ms. Liao Tianqi, President of European Voice and Chair of the Independent Chinese Pen Society, also granted us an interview.
The Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, with Russia launching its largest-scale drone attack since the full invasion, deploying 267 drones, setting a single attack record. Ukrainian anti-aircraft forces intercepted 138 drones, but 119 broke through the defense line, accompanied by 3 ballistic missile attacks. Central Ukrainian cities have suffered heavy damage, resulting in 1 death and 5 injuries, with five other regions sustaining war damages.
Ukrainian President Zelensky posted a video on social platform X, showcasing the ruins under the war.
He revealed that in just the past week, Russia has launched nearly 1150 drones, over 1400 guided aerial bombs, and 35 various missiles at Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump have recently initiated a “hopeful” dialogue, emphasizing that Russia will “never” abandon the occupied territory in eastern Ukraine.
As the U.S. actively promotes peace talks, will Russia’s move draw a line? And what about Ukraine?
Zelensky recently stated that if Ukraine could ensure joining NATO, he would “immediately” resign from the presidency. However, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagues has explicitly stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO member is “unrealistic.” At the same time, due to the war impact, Ukraine’s scheduled election last year has been indefinitely postponed.
Both Russia and Ukraine are putting forth seemingly “completely unacceptable” chips to the other.
It’s worth noting that the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Stepan Choo, recently changed his stance, revealing Ukraine’s plans to negotiate a crucial mineral agreement with the U.S. According to a proposal put forward by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bennett, the U.S. would acquire a 50% stake in Ukraine’s natural resources through a joint investment fund to support Kyiv. However, the agreement does not include future security guarantees or commitments to ongoing U.S. military assistance.
However, White House spokesperson Levitt stated that the President and his team are actively promoting negotiations, maintaining communication between the warring parties in hopes of reaching an agreement.
1. Mr. Mark, the U.S. is actively pushing for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, but Russia insists on not relinquishing Eastern Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine vows to join NATO at all costs. Will such opposing stances render U.S. negotiation efforts in vain?
Secretary of State Rubio, National Security Advisor Waltz, and Middle East envoy Vitkov recently held talks in Saudi Arabia with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Kremlin advisor Ushakov. However, this meeting did not involve Ukraine and European countries, sparking strong dissatisfaction from Zelensky, who demanded formal negotiations to include Ukraine and Europe.
In response to the U.S.-Russia talks, Europe is very anxious, not only holding emergency meetings, but NATO Secretary-General Mark Lutt also stated, “Prepared and willing to invest massively in enhancing our security.” Europe will “lead in providing security forces for Ukraine.”
Currently, European leaders are devising a military aid plan of at least 20 billion to support Ukraine. Today, several European leaders are visiting Ukraine to express their support.
2. Mr. Qin Peng, in this context, can Russia and Ukraine truly achieve a ceasefire this week? How far are we from substantive negotiations?
On Sunday, the results of the German election were announced. This election set a new high in voter turnout since the reunification of East and West Germany, with a participation rate of 84%. The conservative “Christian Democratic Union” (CDU/CSU) emerged victorious, with the right-wing party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) coming second. Union party leader Friedrich Merz is poised to become the next Chancellor.
Germany is the largest economy in the European Union and, alongside France, is known as the “twin engine” of European economy. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany has become the second largest arms supplier to Ukraine after the U.S.
Therefore, this German election has garnered significant attention in Europe. EU allies hope this election will bring a more unified government that can promote domestic and EU policies.
Which party CDU might ally with currently and the future direction of German politics, let’s hear the observations of Liao Tianqi, President of European Voice and Chair of the Independent Chinese Pen Society.
Regardless, the future direction of German politics seems poised to differ from the present and shift. In the current mediation of the Russia-Ukraine war, the viewpoints of the EU and the U.S. do not entirely align, and as the newly formed German political landscape navigates, will it lean closer or further from the U.S. in the future?
And what role will Germany play in the EU moving forward?
3. Mr. Mark, two weeks ago, U.S. Vice President Vance attended the Munich Security Conference and gave a tough speech. At that time, Vance did not meet then-German Chancellor Schultz but met with Merz, the current CDU Chairman who is likely to become the new German Chancellor. This move by Vance has sparked discussions. Do you predict a shift in Germany’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict under a future German government?
However, winning the majority of votes in this German election, the “Christian Democratic Union” is currently in a bind. If they form a coalition with the outgoing ruling authority “Social Democratic Party” or “Green Party,” they risk repeating the same mistakes and following the current trajectory.
But the problem is, the CDU is also reluctant to cooperate with the “Alternative for Germany” party. In theory, the “Alternative for Germany” now has support from nearly 20% of voters. While the CDU and AfD have similar stances on the “refugee policy issue,” the CDU disagrees with the AfD’s desire to exit the EU. This is because the CDU has long been wary of right-wing parties seizing power and has frequently criticized the AfD.
Therefore, the current situation in Germany is unprecedented, simultaneously anti-Russia and anti-Trump. Germany naturally hopes to have a significant role in international politics and aspires to be distinct on the international stage. However, in the high-tech field, based on the current situation, Germany is completely unable to compete with China and the U.S.
Amid the German election, several European leaders also attended the U.S. CPAC Conservative National Conference. Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated that defending traditional values is a common challenge faced by the entire Western camp.
4. Mr. Qin Peng, in terms of international relations, will Germany change its policies towards the U.S., Russia, and China with the CDU in power? What role will Germany play within the EU in the future?
Currently, many are interpreting Trump’s peace negotiation plan. Some believe that Trump’s diplomatic strategy is taking a “reverse Nixon” route, engaging in “united against communism with Russia.”
However, some experts caution that this strategy might backfire, with Trump’s moves potentially allowing Russia to form alliances with both the U.S. and China, causing a split in the Western camp.
5. Mr. Mark, from a military perspective, which side do you lean towards in terms of opinions?
6. Mr. Qin Peng, in the 1970s, Sino-Soviet relations had cracks and conflicts, which the U.S. exploited to weaken Soviet influence by teaming up with China. While currently China and Russia maintain a friendly facade and even have “unlimited” agreements, do you think Trump’s “reverse Nixon” move is the right one?
At the CPAC Conservative National Conference held over the weekend, Trump delivered a lengthy speech and emphasized at the end: “Everything that has happened over the past month is just the beginning.”
7. Mr. Qin Peng, President Trump stated at the end of his speech that everything that has happened over the past month is just the beginning…
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