In the final days of the US presidential campaign, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and her Republican opponent Trump are making a final weekend push before the election. Both candidates are heading to several swing states, hoping to secure more supporters in a last effort to sway undecided voters. The latest election dynamics in these swing states have drawn significant attention from the public and experts alike.
In the closing days of any election, every move of the candidates garners extra scrutiny. The final campaign activities of Clinton and Trump are no exception. Trump plans to hold four rallies in North Carolina on Saturday, Sunday, and the following Monday.
According to The Hill, on the surface, this decision seems unusual as North Carolina is considered one of the swing states where Trump performs strongly. Apart from North Carolina, Trump may also visit Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Georgia before the election.
Clinton will also hold a rally in North Carolina on Saturday. This will mark the fourth consecutive day that both candidates are visiting the same state, underscoring the crucial role of swing states in the election. Clinton is also planning to visit Georgia and Michigan in the final days before the election.
As of now, the election remains extremely tight with multiple swing states showing results within a margin of error. The polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ indicates that neither candidate leads by more than two percentage points in any of the seven swing states.
In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the difference between the two candidates is less than one percentage point, the race is especially intense. These three states are part of the so-called “blue wall” states, traditionally Democratic strongholds that Trump narrowly won in the previous election.
In terms of early voting, over 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots, adding an element of unpredictability to the outcome. Despite efforts by political observers to analyze early voting data for clues, definitive predictions remain elusive due to the unpredictable nature of this election.
Summary based on The Hill analysis reveals that the election outcome in the seven swing states remains highly competitive. Various polling averages from DDHQ, FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, and The New York Times show differing results, with Trump leading in more swing states according to DDHQ.
However, the narrow national polling lead for Clinton does not guarantee her victory in terms of electoral votes. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over two percentage points but lost the election to Trump due to the electoral college system.
Forecasts from DDHQ and FiveThirtyEight indicate a 54% and 51% chance of Trump winning, respectively, which underscores the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of the election.
Several key dividing lines have emerged in the swing states in recent weeks, separating the sunny and southern states from the blue wall states. Trump has shown stronger performance in the sunny and southern swing states, while Clinton is more competitive in the blue wall swing states.
Among all swing states, Trump holds the largest lead in Arizona, followed by Georgia and North Carolina. The prediction models suggest that Trump has a 65% chance of winning Georgia but less than 53% chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If Clinton wins all three blue wall states, she would secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency even if Trump wins the other swing states, replicating the scenario of the 2020 election with a razor-thin margin.
In the past six days, two October surprises have unfolded, one involving a comedian’s controversial joke at a Trump rally and another sparked by Biden’s disparaging remarks about Trump supporters. The subsequent reactions and controversies surrounding these incidents have added further layers of tension to the already heated campaign.
As the election draws near, uncertainties loom over the accuracy of the polls and the potential impact of recent events on the final outcome. The results on Election Day will ultimately determine who will emerge victorious and claim the presidency, with both candidates vigorously campaigning to secure every possible vote in these crucial final days.