The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. has released a report stating that the 12,000 North Korean soldiers dispatched to participate in the Russia-Ukraine war have suffered heavy casualties. By mid-April this year, they are expected to be almost entirely incapacitated, either through death or injury.
According to the report published on January 16th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated at the beginning of January that in the Kursk region of Russia, 3,800 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov mentioned on November 5th last year that there were minor clashes between North Korean and Ukrainian forces, but Russian military blogs have reported since December 6th that North Korean troops are now involved in larger-scale operations.
The institute stated that since North Korean soldiers joined large-scale operations in early December last year, the daily casualty rate could reach up to 92 individuals.
Currently, there are approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers deployed in the Kursk region. If the high casualty rates persist, all of these soldiers could be dead or injured within 12 weeks, around mid-April.
On January 13th, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported that 300 North Korean soldiers have died in combat in the Kursk region, with another 2,700 wounded.
The analysis from the institute suggests that the number of injuries among North Korean soldiers may continue to exceed the number of deaths, but it remains unclear when or if the wounded soldiers will return to the battlefield.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko stated on January 18th on social media platform Telegram that the first group of North Korean troops began participating in combat in the Kursk region from late October to early November last year. The peak of their involvement occurred in December.
Kovalenko mentioned that the majority of casualties among North Korean troops occurred in December last year and the first half of January this year. According to his estimates, North Korean soldiers are losing between 80 to 90 individuals per day, roughly equivalent to a company’s strength.
He highlighted that within just two months, North Korean forces have suffered a 30% loss in combat capability. Russia has not experienced such significant losses within such a short period.
He believes that before the 12,000 soldiers are all killed in action, North Korea will inevitably send a second wave of troops to assist Russia.
Previous reports from media outlets indicated that North Korean troops were utilized as frontline assault teams in unfamiliar battlefield environments and lacked adequate defense against drone attacks, leading to heavy casualties and being perceived as a burden by the Russian military.