In Myanmar, the United States and China are at odds, with Beijing both funding the Myanmar military government and supporting some anti-government armed groups to ensure the safety of its investments and unrestricted access to resources. In contrast, Washington supports Myanmar’s democratic movement. The competition between the US and China covers military, diplomatic, and economic domains, as well as the oceans, the Arctic, the seven continents, and outer space.
Myanmar has been embroiled in civil war since 1948, serving as another front for the US to promote democracy in order to counter China’s interest-driven influence. China is trying to court this vulnerable nation and bring it into Beijing’s orbit.
The conflict in Myanmar is extremely complex, but at its core is the war between the State Administrative Council (SAC) and various pro-democracy militia groups. In 2021, the SAC seized power through a military coup, making it the latest in a series of military governments. Initially, resistance mainly came from ethnic armed organizations (EAO), consisting of the 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar aiming to combat the military government. Since the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, was overthrown by the coup, resistance activities have expanded from the jungle to urban areas. Today, the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), composed mostly of Myanmar ethnic groups and urban residents, are fighting alongside ethnic armed groups to defeat government forces (i.e., the Myanmar military). Most of the PDF and ethnic armed groups currently support the National Unity Government (NUG), which includes ethnic minorities for the first time.
The progress of the war is increasingly influenced by the competition between China and the US, leading to internal divisions within the opposition. After years of conflict, Myanmar’s economy has rapidly deteriorated, and the resistance forces now control up to 80% of the country’s territory. Nevertheless, the Myanmar government forces continue to fight with the support of diplomatic, financial, and weapons aid provided by China.
Aside from imposing sanctions on the Myanmar military government, the US has basically refrained from intervening in the conflict, but it is now beginning to tentatively engage with the NUG in hopes of promoting democracy in the country. In contrast, China has urged ethnic armed groups not to cooperate with the NUG. The United Wa State Army (UWSA) is one of the most powerful militia groups with close ties to China, and at Beijing’s behest, they have agreed to a ceasefire with the government forces.
The Wa State borders China and benefits greatly from direct trade with China. The local armed UWSA is one of the wealthiest and most well-armed militia groups. Ironically, although the UWSA remains neutral in the conflict, they produce weapons for many ethnic minority organizations fighting against the government forces. This aligns with China’s interests since Beijing does not favor victory for any side but seeks to maintain stability around its investment and trade routes.
Most UWSA soldiers have Chinese names and speak Wa and Chinese. Other ethnic minority opposition armed groups are frustrated by the UWSA’s refusal to participate in the war, as their involvement could help turn the tide against the government forces. However, this would contradict Chinese interests. Another powerful group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), formed an alliance with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army in 2017. Because the NUG has allied with the West, threatening China’s strategic position in Myanmar, Beijing is urging the MNDAA to cease support for the National Unity Government.
It was reported that Deng Xijun, the Asia Affairs Special Envoy of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had urged ethnic armed groups such as the UWSA to refrain from supporting the MNDAA. In a meeting in August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi clarified the “three bottom lines” to the Myanmar military government and ethnic minority leaders: avoid civil strife, continue as a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and prevent external interference (referring to the exiled democratic government). In September, the MNDAA announced its discontinuation of cooperation with the National Unity Government and canceled plans to occupy Mandalay, one of the final strongholds of the government forces.
China prioritizes its economic and strategic interests, while the US has historically supported democratic forces and imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military regime. The US has allowed the National Unity Government to establish a liaison office in Washington but has not fully recognized it as Myanmar’s legitimate government yet. The National Unity Government continues to receive support from Western countries, including financial aid from the US and Europe, although this support is limited to non-lethal military assistance.
China’s inclusion of Myanmar in its sphere of influence poses a serious threat to US national security, weakening American influence in the region, disrupting efforts to promote democracy, and strengthening China’s dominant position in the Indo-Pacific region, challenging American interests and alliances. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is still under construction and will provide direct access for China to the Indian Ocean upon completion. This poses significant security risks for the US and key regional ally India.
The CMEC includes a railway from Yunnan Province in China to a port being constructed by China in the Bay of Bengal in Myanmar, enabling the Chinese navy to disrupt crucial oil shipping routes from the Middle East to other parts of the world.
China’s involvement in Myanmar’s peace process, striving to facilitate ceasefire agreements, is primarily to stabilize the situation to protect Chinese economic interests. The military government has announced plans to hold democratic elections in 2025, which China supports. However, this is likely to be merely a facade, as Western observers anticipate the elections will be illegitimate; major opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy that won the previous two democratic elections, have been forcibly disbanded and disqualified from running.
If the war ends, ethnic armed groups may hinder the country’s establishment of a unified foreign policy, as some armed groups may continue direct contact with China. The completion of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and China’s continued dominance could turn Myanmar into a vassal state of the Chinese regime, further aligning with the anti-US axis led by China, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
[Translation and Rewriting Completed]