In recent days, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have suddenly escalated to their highest level since the Korean War armistice. Will East Asia become the world’s third battleground? Experts say that the drone incident has exposed North Korea’s outdated air defense system, and North Korea’s actions are aimed at drawing attention from the United States while China hopes to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula as a buffer zone.
The cause of the current tension on the Korean Peninsula was North Korea’s claim that South Korean drones had intruded into Pyongyang airspace and dispersed leaflets. On October 19th, North Korea reported finding a crashed South Korean military drone in Pyongyang and released images of it.
On October 18th, the 49th South Korea-US Military Committee Meeting was held online, where both sides agreed that North Korean provocations and deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia pose a threat to the Korean Peninsula and global peace and stability, escalating tensions. They emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong alliance to deter further North Korean provocations.
They also discussed matters such as the role of the new South Korean military’s Strategic Command. This command will oversee weapon systems such as the Hyunmoo missile series, stealth fighters, and 3,000-ton submarines, serving as the counterpart to the US Strategic Command.
The day before on October 17th, Kim Jong-un visited the Second Army Command of the North Korean People’s Army and threatened that if South Korea violated North Korean sovereignty, North Korea would use force without hesitation.
On October 15th, North Korea destroyed roads and railways connecting North and South Korea. Kim Jong-un stated that this action was a final warning: if South Korea as the “absolute enemy” invades North Korea in the future, North Korea will use force without constraints.
On October 12th, the North Korean General Staff ordered border forces to be ready to shoot, claiming that if South Korea provoked, they would immediately strike; and according to wartime establishment, eight fully armed artillery regiments were placed in a state of “shoot-on-sight readiness.”
Shin Won-sik, National Security Chief of South Korea, on October 13th on KBS, said that unless North Korea is prepared to break the deadlock, there won’t be a war. Kim Jong-un should fear South Korea’s military capabilities because he would “lose a lot.”
Currently, tensions are high along the 38th parallel, with the risk of accidental gunfights or even a full-scale conflict at any time.
Lee Zhengxiu, a researcher at the National Policy Foundation in Taiwan, told Epoch Times, “A comprehensive conflict is unlikely.” He gave three reasons: first, North Korea lacks the power to launch a full-scale war against South Korea; second, North Korea’s backers, China and Russia, are likely to prevent Kim Jong-un from taking military action; third, Kim Jong-un should be well aware that starting a war would mean the beginning of the downfall of his entire Kim dynasty and autocratic regime.
Lee analyzed that Kim Jong-un does not want a war but deliberately uses these tactics to attract American attention, especially sparking discussions before the US election as leverage for future dialogue with the US.
Retired Lieutenant General and former Deputy Commander of the Air Force Zhang Yanting told Epoch Times that the Korean Peninsula is a powder keg, and the possibility of accidental conflict cannot be ruled out.
He explained that the situation between North and South Korea is tense, with North Korea not only destroying roads and railways but also viewing South Korea as an enemy, mobilizing 1.4 million young people for enlistment and positioning six artillery regiments north of the 38th Parallel for attack, creating an atmosphere of sternness. South Korea has requested heavy weapons like the K-5 missile and displayed the Hwasong-5 ballistic missile, a weapon specifically designed to strike important North Korean nuclear facilities.
Zhang believes that there are not just two wars underway now, but the US is also in the midst of a presidential election, creating a power vacuum. During the transition of power in the US, there is a risk of upheaval.
On October 11th, the North Korean Foreign Ministry accused South Korea of sending drones into Pyongyang airspace at night over the past two weeks and dropping “anti-North political propaganda leaflets.” Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister, warned Seoul that there would be “unimaginable dreadful consequences.”
Subsequently, Kim Jong-un called a meeting of the Defense and Security Department and ordered the activation of national defense forces to exercise the right to self-defense. Pyongyang warned that if another drone was found, it would be considered an “act of war.”
The South Korean Ministry of National Defense had previously denied sending drones and maintained a position of “neither confirm nor deny.”
North Korea has also sent drones to South Korea, with five such incidents in 2022 alone where drones crossed the 38th Parallel. The South Korean military issued warnings and scrambled fighter jets in response.
On October 14th, Kim Yo-jong made a statement through the Korean Central News Agency, claiming that the infiltration of drones into Pyongyang was orchestrated by the South Korean military, and the US should be held accountable. After the drone incident, Kim Yo-jong issued threats and accused South Korea in statements over three consecutive days.
When the Korean War ended in 1953, no peace treaty was signed, meaning that technically both sides are still at war. North Korea has maintained a stance advocating for reunification with South Korea until January this year when Kim Jong-un abandoned reunification with South Korea and disbanded the relevant institutions responsible for relations with South Korea and unification, designating South Korea as the “number one enemy.”
On October 17th, North Korean state media confirmed that through a constitutional amendment, South Korea had been officially defined as an “hostile state.”
According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea plans to “completely separate the territories in stages from the South” and as part of this plan, a 60-meter-long road and railway laid down as crossing points on one side of the country have been completely closed off, turning the closed southern border into a permanent fortress.
Zhang Yanting said, “Kim Jong-un wants to maintain high tension because the higher the tension, the more stable, safe, and effective his regime will be. Of course, he does not want a real high risk; maintaining a state of tension without breaking it is the best and most advantageous for his regime.”
The Korean Daily quoted military experts’ analysis, suggesting that Kim Jong-un is raising tensions through the drone incident because he fears his “fragile air defense network” has been exposed. Experts point out that North Korea’s air defense network, using radars and surface-to-air missiles that are over 40 years old, is outdated and has not received special maintenance.
In 2017, a US strategic bomber B-1B fleet approached 130 kilometers from the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the East Sea without North Korean detection; the North Koreans only learned about it afterward from media reports. In 2013, a US stealth strategic bomber B-2 appeared over the Osan base, leading to Kim Jong-un’s anger upon learning. North Korea’s radar system is severely outdated, unable to identify fighter jets and strategic bombers, let alone stealth aircraft.
In contrast, South Korea has an advanced “Central Air Defense Control System” that can process real-time data from multiple radars, enabling automatic identification, tracking, interception, and control of aircraft.
Israel’s precision targeting of Hamas leaders with high-precision, high-tech methods has attracted worldwide attention, making some dictators fearful of modern military “precision strikes” and the “kill the head and the body will die” approach.
Shin Won-sik said that after South Korea’s National Military Day commemoration on October 1st, North Korea unusually responded sensitively, with Kim Jong-un feeling panic over South Korea’s advanced “Hwasong-5” missile. The leader of Hezbollah was killed by Israel’s “bunker buster,” but the power of the “Hwasong-5” missile is more than ten times stronger, making Kim Jong-un surely fearful.
Shin stated that North Korea is not a normal country, and “we must have the ability to safely eliminate Kim Jong-un.” He said, “That is what the subordinate units under the newly established Strategic Command are currently doing.”
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense stated that North Korea has been distributing “balloon trash” to South Korea, trying to divert responsibility by blaming South Korea for spreading anti-North Korean leaflets internally.
Previously, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense issued a stern warning to Kim Jong-un through the media: if North Korea threatens South Korean citizens’ safety, that day will be the end of the North Korean regime.
Lee Zhengxiu said that the US has long struggled to find a reason to crush North Korea. If North Korea triggers this war, the regime is doomed; the US will not only stop at the 38th Parallel but will seize the opportunity to completely dismantle the North Korean regime.
A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a press conference on October 17th that peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula serve the common interests of all parties.
Zhang Yanting believes that if a conflict erupts on the Korean Peninsula, China is unlikely to participate. However, China may provide some weapons to North Korea and take measures on land and at sea to prevent a flood of refugees.
Lee Zhengxiu analyzed that the relationship between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un has been strained recently. Furthermore, if China loses North Korea as a buffer zone, it will have to directly confront the US military. For China, it is essential that the Korean Peninsula maintains its current state of standoff between North and South.
Lee believes that China wants to compete with the US but is not foolish enough to engage in war with them. The outbreak of a hot war would likely pose a severe challenge to the Chinese regime. China must be wary that once involved, the US might take the chance to completely dismantle the Chinese communist regime.
The “Hwasong-5” missile is not only a deterrent to North Korea but also poses a strategic threat to China. By reducing the weight of the warhead, the Hwasong missile can travel 5,500 kilometers, covering the southeastern region of China. Analysts in China believe that if the missile were only intended to strike North Korea, a range of 900 kilometers would suffice, and South Korea’s development of such long-range missiles with evasion capabilities is aimed at China, which has a tightly secured air defense network.