Tariffs Have a Heavy Impact on US Exports, China’s Port Freight Volume Sudden Decline

In recent months, the escalating trade war between the United States and China has continued to intensify, with President Trump’s tariffs dealing a heavy blow to Chinese exports to the United States. As a result, the volume of freight passing through ports in mainland China has sharply decreased within just one week.

From April 7th to 13th, the total cargo throughput at Chinese ports decreased by 9.7% compared to the previous week, amounting to 2.44 billion tons. This decline far exceeds the 0.88% decrease seen in the week before President Trump initially announced his tariff plans.

Data released by the Chinese Ministry of Transport on Tuesday, April 15th, reveals a 6.1% drop in container throughput, reversing the 1.9% increase from the week prior.

Currently, the United States imposes tariffs as high as 145% on most Chinese goods, although the effective tariffs on electronic products are lower. This could potentially lead to a shift in trade from the U.S. to other regions worldwide, as reflected in the data on freight costs.

According to the data provided by Wind, a financial information service, as of the week ending on April 11th, the Ningbo Container Freight Index showed an 18.0% decrease in shipping costs to the U.S. West Coast and a 10.8% decrease to the East Coast. In contrast, freight costs to Europe increased by 1.8%, with a notable rise of 15.3% and 13.0% for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean respectively. Shipping costs on routes to the East Coast of South America surged by 52.5%.

Although the Trump administration announced last Friday that certain electronic products would be exempt from the highest tariffs, hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods still face an additional 145% tariff if companies continue to export to the U.S. Furthermore, starting next month, the U.S. will eliminate the “minimum limit” tariff exemption for small packages, which could reduce demand for air freight.

A recent report by Caixin stated that at ports like Shanghai Yangshan and Waigaoqiao, there are hardly any cargo ships bound for the United States to be seen anymore. Just a few days ago, these terminals were bustling with activity as many containers were rushed to be loaded onto ships bound for the U.S. before the new tariffs took effect. According to staff at the scene, containers that missed the last shipping deadline are now piling up in the yards, and many shippers are processing return procedures.

Data from Drewry, a shipping consultancy firm, shows that in March and April, the number of canceled flights on trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, and Asia-Europe routes has increased to 198 flights, significantly higher than the 135 flights during the same period in 2024.

Drewry’s online service, “Container Market Insight,” indicates a notable increase in the number of canceled flights, especially on the Asia-North America West Coast and trans-Atlantic routes. Carriers typically cancel a significant number of flights in February due to the Chinese New Year holiday but reduce this practice in the following months. However, this year, carriers continued to cancel over 40 flights per month on the Asia-North America West Coast route in March and April.

Drewry suggests that U.S. importers, uncertain about the impact of new U.S. tariffs on their shipments upon clearing customs in North America, are hesitant to transport cargo from Asia to the U.S. Following a robust shipping volume in January and February, including some “advance shipping,” carriers may anticipate a decrease in cargo volume and a slowdown in import growth, leading to flight cancellations.

According to incomplete statistics from Huatai Futures, from the sixteenth week (April 14th to April 20th) to the nineteenth week (May 5th to May 11th), there were a total of 26 canceled sailings between China and the U.S. West Coast and East Coast, with 13 sailings canceled for each destination, resulting in a significant reduction in container capacity on the China-U.S. route. By the nineteenth week, capacity had decreased by nearly 40% to around 230,000 TEUs compared to the fifteenth week (April 7th to April 13th).

Investment bank UBS revised its economic growth forecast for China on Tuesday, lowering it from 4% to 3.4% for the year. This adjustment assumes that existing tariffs remain unchanged and that Beijing introduces additional stimulus measures.

The investment bank anticipates that Chinese exports to the United States will decrease by two-thirds over the next few quarters. In dollar terms, China’s overall exports are expected to decline by 10% this year.