Recently, Professor Li Youtan from National Chengchi University in Taiwan attended a “June Fourth” memorial event in Los Angeles and held a special lecture on issues of concern to Chinese people worldwide, discussing the future of China and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
During the Q&A session, Li Youtan referenced the theory of American political scientist Samuel Phillips Huntington, pointing out that economic development is an objective factor in a country’s transition to democracy, while political leadership is a subjective factor in achieving democratization.
Huntington believes that there are typically two models for a country’s transition to democracy. One is proactive reform in authoritarian states, such as Taiwan and South Korea during their authoritarian rule periods, which transitioned from economic prosperity to democratization and modernization.
The other model is “replacement democratization”: if a country is successful economically but does not choose the path of democratization, rulers must ensure continuous economic growth; once the economy falters and people suffer, they will demand democratization, potentially leading to the overthrow of the regime.
Li Youtan believes that China today has a greater chance of “democratization” than Russia, citing three main reasons.
First, economic regression. While China’s economy experienced rapid growth for a period, issues such as distribution of benefits and the monopoly of the Communist Party have harmed many Chinese during the development process.
Second, a wave of resistance against the Chinese Communist Party has emerged among overseas Chinese. Li Youtan noted, “Nowhere else in the world do people oppose their own government to such an extent after leaving their country as the Chinese do.”
These two forces lead me to see an opportunity for change in China,” said Li Youtan. Chinese people traveling abroad, including to Taiwan, have seen the outside world, and their friends and relatives back home are aware as well. In such a scenario, unless the economy under Communist rule always performs well, there’s a possibility of a major change if issues arise.
In the years following the pandemic, China’s major cities have shown signs of economic downturn. Following reports of a 50% reduction in overall income for employees at three major financial institutions earlier in the year, recent news from coastal province of Zhejiang indicates salary cuts for civil servants: with general civil servant annual income reductions ranging from 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, reflecting tight finances in local governments. With salaries of civil servants within the Communist system usually given priority protection, this situation reflects a significant economic decline in China.
Third, the United States has shifted its policy towards the Chinese Communist Party. Li Youtan stated that U.S. pressure was a significant factor in the past democratization of Taiwan and South Korea; now, with the U.S. leading the world in confronting the CCP, this will be an important external factor in China’s path to democratization.
In his book “The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century,” Huntington summarized the breakdown of communist regimes in Eastern Europe from the 1970s to the end of the 20th century as “the third wave of democratization.” Li Youtan believes that current democratization has different characteristics: in the era of the internet and smartphones, no matter how much the CCP tries to block information and control public opinion, they cannot prevent the flow of public opinion and the winds of freedom – freedom cannot be fully suppressed.
Comparing to the other side, Li Youtan noted that Taiwan went through a vertical democratization process in the 1990s, allowing people to have the central freedom of living without fear, which is the core freedom. However, the CCP is now utilizing Taiwan’s democratic freedoms to infiltrate and suppress the Taiwanese people’s freedom, attempting to destroy their freedoms. He emphasized that only by leading China towards freedom can Taiwan be secure; otherwise, the CCP could make Taiwan feel constantly threatened.
Li Youtan concluded by expressing his willingness to dedicate his remaining years to ensure more people can enjoy freedom, stating, “When all Chinese people have the freedom to live without fear, then Taiwan’s freedom can be fully guaranteed.”