Taiwan Think Tank Seminar: Experts Analyze the Authoritarian Rule Model of the Chinese Communist Party

On the 6th of March, a think tank in Taiwan organized a seminar titled “Xi Jinping’s Authoritarian Model and Governance Thinking” at the International Conference Center of the Ministry of Transportation. The event featured three themed discussions with 17 experts and scholars, who pointed out the challenges faced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) amid growing social discontent, leading to a state of mutual distrust within the CCP regime.

The first discussion focused on “Xi Jinping’s Governance Thinking in the Era: Internal Authoritarian Control.” Wang Zhanshi, Deputy Researcher at the Institute for National Defense Security Studies, highlighted Xi’s efforts to rebuild a social control system centered around the CCP through digital surveillance, ideological control, and social infiltration. However, factors such as economic stagnation and lingering social autonomy have limited the effectiveness of such control measures. Phenomena like fan culture, the blank paper movement, and economic rights protection movements indicate the presence of spaces for resistance in society. The experts suggested that the CCP will face challenges from social discontent and the need for systemic adjustments, potentially leading to a state of mutual mistrust between the state and society.

Assistant Professor Hong Yaonan from Tamkang University’s Department of Diplomacy mentioned that under Xi’s leadership, the CCP’s power structure has shifted from high centralization to institutionalized competition. Although Xi has weakened traditional factions and enhanced his personal leadership authority through anti-corruption campaigns and military reforms, internal rivalry continues within the institutional framework. The uncertainties surrounding succession plans and frequent personnel changes in the military could impact political stability. It is crucial for Taiwan to monitor these trends and align its international strategies to address the evolving CCP governance model.

Deputy Researcher Zeng Weifeng from the Center for International Studies at National Chengchi University pointed out that Xi’s leadership after the 19th National Congress of the CCP has placed a focus on regional economic integration during Politburo meetings, while collective learning sessions center around party-building, culture, technology, and national issues. The CCP may introduce new policies regarding party-building and social governance in the future, signaling the need for continuous observation.

Assistant Professor Lin Junda from National Taiwan University’s Institute of National Development mentioned that while the CCP has enhanced its technological innovation capabilities under Xi, its diffusion capacity still lags behind that of countries like Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. He noted that despite promoting technological advancement through the “new-type national system,” the CCP’s diffusion deficit limits its global competitiveness, affecting the sustainability of its technological rise.

Professor Dong Liwen from the Department of Public Safety at Central Police University stated that Xi’s decision-making is fraught with contradictions and uncertainties, posing challenges to CCP governance and economic development. The frequent policy fluctuations and lack of a clear direction, along with conflicting approaches towards Taiwan – exerting military pressure while promoting economic integration, add to the complexities. The tightening market controls and government intervention, despite Xi’s emphasis on protecting private enterprises, could exacerbate internal economic challenges within the CCP, impacting its stability and legitimacy.

Professor Huang Zhicong from the Department of Finance at National Chengchi University highlighted the in-depth exploration of the CCP’s social control system and technological innovation challenges under Xi’s leadership. Research suggests that Xi has strengthened social control to maintain regime stability through mechanisms like the social credit system, but the authoritarian regime restricts free thought, hindering original innovation and leading to mostly incremental technological advancements with limited breakthroughs.

The second discussion centered on “Xi Jinping’s Governance Thinking in the Era: External Authoritarian Expansion.” Assistant Professor Ma Zhunwei from Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies pointed out that Xi, through constitutional amendments abolishing term limits, intensifying personal idolization, and anti-corruption campaigns, is steering the CCP towards authoritarian rule. The rise of digital authoritarianism, AI surveillance, and the deepening of the social credit system for public monitoring project a regression of CCP governance to Maoist-style rule, signifying the onset of a new era of authoritarianism for the CCP.

Research Fellow Wang Guochen from the First Institute of the Chinese Academy of Economic Research mentioned that Xi’s push for external economic expansion through investments and infrastructure projects aims to enhance global influence. However, high levels of commercial loans exacerbating debt traps have led some countries to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative. Dominated by state-owned enterprises, China restricts the development of private businesses and employs economic pressures to influence diplomatic relations. Nonetheless, trade imbalances and market distortions have prompted countermeasures from various countries, increasing cases of anti-dumping and investment scrutiny, weakening the CCP’s economic alliances.

Assistant Professor Wu Junzhi from Taipei University of Education highlighted Xi’s utilization of nationalism to promote external expansion and authoritarian rule under the banner of national rejuvenation, aiming to reshape the global order and challenge US-led international systems. Taiwan’s policy stance has shifted from “cross-strait kinship” to military intimidation and economic pressure, deploying united front strategies, legal warfare, and information warfare to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty. The recent reinforcement of the “One Country, Two Systems for Taiwan” proposal, mirroring the Hong Kong model, indicates heightened control measures. Wu cautioned that the Xi regime will continue to push for unification through multifaceted pressure, urging Taiwan to remain vigilant and rally international support to combat CCP challenges.

Assistant Professor Lin Yingyou from Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies believed that the CCP, through diplomatic collaboration, is deepening military and economic connections to reshape the international order. This strategy not only strengthens security cooperation with countries like Russia and North Korea but indirectly threatens Taiwan. By issuing joint statements with partner countries to limit Taiwan’s international space and employing military cooperation to deter US-Japan-South Korea intervention in the Taiwan Strait, the CCP’s strategic expansion could heighten regional security tensions. Taiwan must bolster international cooperation to safeguard its diplomatic and trade autonomy against Beijing’s pressure tactics.

Professor Zhang Guocheng from Taipei Medical University’s General Education Center addressed Taiwan’s outstanding performance in democratic development but noted that some individuals hold pro-CCP views, necessitating deeper exploration. He emphasized the significance for countries engaging with the CCP to prioritize their sovereignty and nationalism in response to the diverse expansion tactics adopted by China.

Professor Cai Rongxiang from National Chengchi University’s Department of Political Science stated that the nationalist strategies of Xi’s administration operate within the official allowable realm only, while grassroots nationalist activities face strict controls. Furthermore, he suggested that Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative has exposed certain participant countries to the risk of falling into debt traps.

The third discussion focused on “Trump’s Return to the White House: Indo-Pacific Strategy and the State of US-China-Taiwan Relations” in a comprehensive roundtable. Dr. Wu Sezhi, Director of the China Research Group at the Taiwan Think Tank, raised three questions urging attention: the differences between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0, the disparities between Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy and Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and the state of US-China-Taiwan relations focusing on discourse on abandoning Taiwan, doubts about the US, and skepticism towards Trump.

Consultant Lai Yizhong from the Taiwan Think Tank emphasized the importance of understanding Trump’s decision-making style. He noted an increased confidence displayed by Trump in his second term, leaning towards decisions influenced by a few close advisors and placing a greater emphasis on economic policies, possibly diminishing the traditional diplomatic and national security sectors’ influence.

Vice President Guo Yuren from the National Policy Academy pointed out the global dependency on the US in trade, economy, and technology, leading to a rapid weakening of the US economy. Trump’s adherence to fulfilling campaign promises within this international framework, such as quick ceasefires in conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East, imposition of tariffs on products from China, and the development of US high-tech manufacturing, significantly impacts global structures. He highlighted that Trump’s assertive rhetoric has altered the international political landscape, prompting countries to increase defense budgets and security responsibilities. Guo believed that nations must carefully address the implications of US policy changes.

Associate Professor Tao Yifen from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University stated that if the US were to implement extensive trade blockades against China, the economic loss to China would be 5 to 10 times that of the US. This indicates China’s high dependency on the global market, underscoring the continued advantage the US holds in core technologies and industrial innovation, consequently placing restrictions on China’s economic development.

Assistant Professor Chen Fangyu from Soochow University’s Department of Political Science noted that the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy aligns with its predecessor’s policies, emphasizing close collaboration with Japan, while tensions persist in US-China relations due to tariff issues. Taiwan should remain cautious of narratives casting doubts on the US and guard against pro-CCP media exploiting topics like TSMC to undermine confidence in the US. Chen highlighted how Trump’s strongman politics have shaped a unique political atmosphere in the US, prompting Taiwan to gain deeper insights into US internal political dynamics and devise strategies to safeguard its interests.

These discussions underscore the complexities of Xi Jinping’s leadership and the implications for China’s domestic governance, external relations, and regional dynamics, urging continuous monitoring and strategic responses to navigate the evolving dynamics within the CCP regime and its interactions with the global community.