Recently, the British Financial Times reported that Taiwan plans to spend NT$500 billion to purchase four weapons, including the American F-35 fighter jets, Ticonderoga-class cruisers, E-2D “Hawkeye” early warning aircraft. Can Taiwan possibly obtain the F-35 fighter jets?
According to the British Financial Times, after the presidential election, Taiwan has been in contact with the Trump team and proposed a military purchase of over $15 billion, which is close to NT$500 billion. This list includes the highly anticipated 60 F-35 fighter jets, 4 E-2D “Hawkeye” early warning aircraft, 10 retired US Navy ships, and 400 “Patriot” missiles, among others.
Personally, I am very sensitive to numbers. When I saw this report, my first reaction was whether $15 billion would be enough. Let’s take the F-35 fighter jets as an example. In 2021, Switzerland spent $6.7 billion to purchase 36 F-35 fighter jets, including aircraft, various weapon systems, training, etc. Based on this price, Taiwan purchasing 60 F-35 fighter jets would cost around $11 billion. This means that the majority of the funds in Taiwan’s list are actually reserved for these fighter jets, leaving $4 billion, which begs the question of whether other procurements can be completed.
Let’s look at the “Patriot” missiles. In June of this year, the US Army announced a $4.5 billion purchase of 870 “Patriot” PAC-3 MSE missiles. If Taiwan were to purchase 400 missiles, the price would be around $2 billion.
Next, let’s consider the E-2D early warning aircraft. According to a year-end 2020 report from the US military, the total value of Taiwan’s purchase of 6 E-2D early warning aircraft is $2.36 billion, with an average cost of around $400 million per aircraft. If Taiwan were to purchase 4 early warning aircraft this time, it would likely cost $1.6 to $2 billion. So far, with the acquisition of 60 F-35 fighter jets, 400 “Patriot” missiles, and 4 E-2D early warning aircraft, Taiwan has already spent around $15 billion. Additionally, purchasing 10 navy ships could cost $5 billion, bringing the total expenditure to around $20 billion.
However, I believe that for Taiwan, the price is not the issue. All these equipment are priced transparently, at the same rates for Americans, Swedes, and Taiwanese buyers. This list includes the most urgently needed weapons and equipment for Taiwan’s military. The F-35 is definitely a valuable asset, especially the F-35B for short takeoff and vertical landing, making it suitable for operations in Taiwan. In wartime, airport runways may be damaged, but the F-35 can take off and land on highways or other emergency sites. Furthermore, the F-35 boasts the world’s most advanced situational awareness capabilities. Equipped with the EOTS (Electro-Optical Targeting System) and EODAS (Electro-Optical Distributed Aperture System), the F-35 can detect enemy aircraft without radar, even stealth fighters. As the People’s Liberation Army currently has two fifth-generation fighters, the J-20 and J-35, according to the Taiwan Relations Act, there are no legal obstacles to selling the F-35 to Taiwan.
While Taiwan purchased F-16V fighter jets a few years ago and has retired F-5s recently, there is a need for performance enhancement in another fighter jet from the 1990s, the Mirage 2000 ordered from France. The Taiwanese military has been in discussions with French companies about upgrading and extending the longevity of this aircraft, such as engine upgrades, and has chosen to cooperate with French company Safran.
Furthermore, the price of the F-35 is very competitive. With three models, A, B, and C, the cheapest is the Air Force’s A model, with a base price of just over $80 million. Of course, when equipped with engines and various ammunition, the average cost per fighter jet is close to $200 million. The F-35’s price is absolutely the most cost-effective in the international arms market at the moment. In comparison, within the fourth-and-a-half-generation fighter jets, France’s Rafale fighter is top-selling. In 2024, Serbia announced a $3 billion purchase of 12 Rafale fighters, averaging $250 million per fighter. According to Switzerland’s procurement case, the average cost per F-35 fighter jet including ammunition and training is less than $200 million. So, the F-35 is cheaper than the Rafale and offers better performance. Which one would you choose? It’s not a straightforward decision, is it?
The F-35 is indeed excellent, but the biggest issue is whether the US will sell it. I have seen military experts analyze two factors: firstly, the issue of battlefield survivability, given Taiwan’s proximity to China. It is a potential challenge whether the F-35 could survive on airfields in the event of conflict. Secondly, strategic depth, as the Taiwan Strait is relatively narrow, flying in close proximity can lead to a significant distance gap. At such distances, the advantages of the F-35’s stealth capabilities and situational awareness may not be as pronounced.
Personally, I think these two points have some merit but are not decisive factors. Regarding airfield protection, from the Ukraine War, it can be seen that long-range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have limited destructive capabilities on airfields. Despite the significant gap between the Ukrainian and Russian air forces, within three days of the conflict, the fully dominant Russian forces did not even destroy a few Ukrainian aircraft. Additionally, Taiwan has the Hualien Chia-Shan Air Base behind the central mountain range, and it is not so easy to destroy F-35s with missiles alone.
The US reluctance to sell F-35s may stem from the fundamental concern over the risk of leaking core technologies. As early as the beginning of this year, China attempted to bribe Taiwanese military personnel to fly an S-70 transport aircraft to China. During the recent Zhuhai Air Show, a former navy captain, receiving an interview from China Central Television, choked up, saying, “Let everyone know how strong we are in China.” The F-35 is currently the US Air Force’s most critical equipment, so if you were the US, would you feel comfortable handing over F-35s to Taiwan?
Another potential issue from purchasing the F-35 is the delivery time. Despite the F-35 being a successful fighter jet with over 1,000 units produced, its total order quantity has exceeded 3,000 units. If Taiwan were to place an order now, it may take seven to ten years to receive the F-35 fighter jets.
Therefore, while the F-35 is exceptional, the likelihood of a deal is not high. However, considering that Trump is an unconventional president, there may be other variables at play.
Taiwan is more likely to acquire the E-2D early warning aircraft. The E-2D uses advanced AN/APY-9 hybrid radar, capable of detecting China’s J-20 fighters at greater distances and simultaneously tracking surface targets hundreds of kilometers away, crucial for Taiwan’s maritime and airspace control. Currently, Taiwan has 6 E-2K early warning aircraft, with four upgraded from the original E-2T with around 29 years of service, expected to retire around 2028. Taiwan urgently needs to upgrade its early warning aircraft.
Taiwan proposed purchasing the E-2D “Hawkeye” advanced early warning aircraft from the US a few years ago. However, this request was repeatedly put on hold by the Biden administration. Looking at military aid to Ukraine, the US, while supporting Ukraine, has delayed and drawn out the military assistance process. “Patriot” air defense missiles were delayed for over a year before being provided to Ukraine, and F-16 fighter jets took over two years to be delivered. The Biden administration tends to have many self-imposed restrictions out of concern for provocation or stimulating the other party. During Trump’s first term, Taiwan had significant opportunities with 11 approved arms sales totaling $21 billion, whereas during the Biden administration, arms sales to Taiwan amounted to only $7 billion. Upon Trump’s inauguration, Taiwan had a high chance of acquiring E-2D early warning aircraft.
Moving on to the navy, according to the Taiwan “Liberty Times,” Taiwanese officials have indicated that the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are the top priority in this arms sale. Currently, Taiwan’s main navy vessels are the 1990s-introduced Perry-class frigate, the Keelung-class, known as the Yangtze-class in Taiwan, two more modern vessels, the self-built Cheng Kung-class frigate and the French-introduced Kang Ding-class frigate. The Cheng Yung-class frigate was constructed in the 1960s to 1970s, and its service life needs upgrading promptly.
On the other hand, Taiwan’s “National Ship, Nation Building” program has faced setbacks, with delays and changes to the 4000-ton-class frigate’s “Chi-Hai” program until it was eventually abandoned, turning into the construction of 2000-ton-class anti-air and anti-submarine ships. It is evident that Taiwan currently lacks plans to build larger navy vessels in the near future. Furthermore, the navy lacks regional air defense capabilities, making the introduction of the US-supplied Arleigh Burke-class Aegis cruisers a logical step.
Comparing with the previously discussed F-35 fighter jets, acquiring retired US navy vessels is not as costly. Typically, retired US navy ships are sold to external countries at around 5% of their construction cost. In recent years, the US has retired numerous Ticonderoga-class cruisers and littoral combat ships. If Taiwan wishes to purchase US navy ships, it is likely these two types of vessels.
For instance, the build cost of a Ticonderoga-class cruiser is approximately $1 billion, with a final sale price around $50 million. However, purchasing a Ticonderoga-class cruiser would require additional weapons systems, such as a significant volume of Standard Missile-2 or Standard Missile-6 missiles, anti-submarine rockets, and upgrades to older systems. If the ship is in reserve, reopening and performance enhancements would add expenses. Just for the 96 vertical launch cells on the Ticonderoga-class, filling all of them with missiles, using the cheaper Standard Missile-2 at over $2 million per missile, the total would exceed $200 million. With the pricier Standard Missile-6 at $4.5 million per missile, 100 missiles would cost $450 million.
Taking Taiwan’s purchase of the Perry-class frigate from the US as an example, it cost a total of $740 million. However, the hull price was only $70 million (NT$2 billion), with the bulk of expenses allocated to purchasing Standard-2 air defense missiles, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, personnel training, and reopening and enhancing performance. Therefore, the cost of purchasing US retired cruisers may not be high in terms of hull prices, but due to acquiring weapons systems, missiles, performance enhancements, each vessel’s total expenses could reach $500 million or higher.
For Taiwan, the ideal scenario would be to directly take over the recently retired Ticonderoga-class cruisers without placing them in reserve. This approach would bypass the considerable time and cost of sealing and reopening.
Apart from the Ticonderoga-class cruisers, it seems that the littoral combat ships are also under consideration for Taiwan. Unlike the Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the benefits of the littoral combat ships lie in their very new hulls, most serving around ten years. For example, the USS Independence littoral combat ship was retired after just 11 years in service, and the USS Coronado served for only about 8 years before retirement. In the coming years, the US will retire a significant number of littoral combat ships, which Taiwan could readily acquire and deploy. The major drawback of the littoral combat ships is their lack of regional air defense capabilities and relatively weak air defense systems. Therefore, they may not be suitable as Taiwan’s primary naval vessels. Regarding anti-ship capabilities, the US plans to equip 11 of the 35 littoral combat ships with NSM anti-ship missiles. Thus, if Taiwan were to introduce both the NSM and littoral combat ships, it would see a certain improvement in its anti-ship capabilities.
Another consideration for acquiring littoral combat ships is China’s frequent activities in the Taiwan Strait region in recent years. Every move by the Chinese navy prompts Taiwan to deploy warships for monitoring, and given the aging ships currently in service, it may not be suitable for continued action. The littoral combat ships’ brand-new hulls would be more fitting for Taiwan’s ongoing counteractions against the Chinese navy during peacetime.
Therefore, among the batch of retired US Navy ships proposed by the Taiwanese military, there will likely be 4 to 6 Ticonderoga-class cruisers, with the remaining vessels possibly being littoral combat ships.
Today, we have briefly analyzed the four items on this $15 billion military sale list. In summary, the purchase probability is 100% for the “Patriot” missiles, while the likelihood of acquiring the F-35 fighter jets is minimal and entirely dependent on Trump’s mood. The probability of the navy acquiring the Ticonderoga-class Aegis cruisers and the air force acquiring the E-2D early warning aircraft is significantly higher.
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