Strong cold air mass from mainland China moving southward on the 15th, temperature in northern Taiwan dropping to 10 degrees

Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau predicts that a strong cold air mass from the mainland will move southward starting this afternoon (15th), causing temperatures to gradually drop across the island. Northern Taiwan temperatures are expected to dip to around 10 degrees, with the cold air mass weakening by the 21st.

The weather forecast overview from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau indicates a low pressure system of 1010 hectopascals located at 29 degrees north latitude and 126 degrees east longitude over the Ryukyu Sea, moving eastward at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour. The associated front extends westward from this center to the northern Taiwan Strait (25 degrees north latitude, 120 degrees east longitude).

According to the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, as the front passes through today until the early morning of the 16th, there will be brief showers or thunderstorms in areas north of central Taiwan, along the northern coast of Keelung, and in the Matsu Islands, with a chance of localized heavy rain. Other areas including Penghu and Kinmen may also experience brief showers or thunderstorms. The weather will gradually turn colder across the island from this afternoon as the strong cold air mass descends.

“From daytime on the 16th until the 17th, a strong cold air mass from the mainland will bring cold weather to various areas. On the 16th, there may be brief showers in northern and eastern parts as well as mountainous areas in central and southern regions, while other areas will see partly cloudy skies after brief showers. On the 17th, brief showers are expected in the eastern half of the island, turning into partly cloudy skies in mountainous areas of the western half, while other regions will be mostly cloudy to clear,” stated the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau further mentioned that from the 18th to the 20th, the influence of the strong cold air mass from the mainland and radiative cooling will bring cold weather to northern and northeastern regions, with other areas also experiencing chilly temperatures in the morning and evening. Temperature differences between day and night in central and southern regions will be significant. Most areas will be mostly cloudy to clear, with scattered brief showers in eastern and southeastern regions.

On the 21st, the strong cold air mass from the mainland is expected to gradually weaken, leading to a rise in temperatures across the island. Although there will still be low temperatures in the early morning and evening due to radiative cooling, western regions will experience large temperature variations between day and night. Most areas will be clear to partly cloudy, with scattered brief showers only in eastern and southeastern regions. Be mindful that central and northern regions along with Kinmen and Matsu Islands may experience reduced visibility due to low clouds or localized fog on the 15th, and the likelihood of high waves along the northern coast of Keelung, parts of eastern coastal areas (including Orchid Island and Green Island), and the coastal regions of Hengchun Peninsula from the evening of the 16th to the 17th.

Dr. Wu Derong, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science at Taiwan Central University, pointed out in a column for the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation that according to the latest European model simulation by the ECMWF as of 8:00 PM on the 12th, a continental high-pressure system will dominate from the 17th to the 24th, covering a continuous period of 8 days.

Dr. Wu stated that during the period from the 17th to the 20th, clear and stable weather conditions will prevail throughout the island, with only a slight chance of scattered light rainfall in the eastern region. Despite feeling warm in the sunshine during the day, temperatures will plummet close to the standard of a “cold wave” at night and in the early morning due to the added effect of radiative cooling. Some flatland areas could see temperatures drop to around 5 degrees, posing a risk for sudden temperature changes, especially for the elderly and those with cardiovascular diseases who should take extra precautions to stay warm.

He emphasized that the weather models are still being fine-tuned and require close monitoring. Starting from the daytime on the 21st until the 24th, regions will experience clear and cloudless weather as the cold air gradually weakens, leading to warmer days while maintaining low temperatures due to radiative cooling in the early mornings.