On November 29th and 30th, Chinese and Russian bombers conducted joint drills twice, with China deploying J-16 fighter jets and a aerial refueling tanker Y-20. The J-16 fighter jet made a rare crossing through the Miyako Strait into the Pacific Ocean. However, the Chinese air force exercises were still amateurish, with the bombers not carrying weapons and the refueling tanker venturing into risky areas near the first island chain. It also exposed that the actual range of the J-16 was much lower than the propaganda data. Despite multiple joint drills between Chinese and Russian aircraft, there is a clear lack of mutual trust.
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has established four J-16 squadrons, estimated to be stationed in Rugao, Jiangsu; Chongming, Shanghai; Hangzhou, Zhejiang; and Nanchang, Jiangxi. The closest J-16 bases to the Miyako Strait are likely in Shanghai and Hangzhou. The Miyako Strait is approximately 822 kilometers from Shanghai to Okinawa, and about 831 kilometers from Shanghai to Miyako Island. If the J-16 were to be deployed along the coast of Fujian in advance, the distance to the Miyako Strait would be even shorter.
The J-16 is touted to have a maximum range of 4,000 kilometers and a combat radius of 1,850 kilometers. Taking off from Shanghai or Hangzhou, flying over 800 kilometers should reach the Miyako Strait, theoretically capable of flying 1,000 kilometers beyond the strait and return safely. However, on November 30th, after the J-16 flew out of the Miyako Strait, the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force captured images of the Chinese refueling tanker refueling the J-16 fighter jet. This indicates that the J-16, without the support of a refueling tanker, may not be able to return if it flies further away from the Miyako Strait.
The Chinese H-6 bomber is claimed to have a maximum range of 7,200 kilometers and a combat radius of 3,500 kilometers, capable of flying over the Miyako Strait into the Pacific and back without the need for a refueling tanker’s support. Similar drills have been conducted by China many times, but fighter jets often return after reaching the Miyako Strait, and the H-6 bomber can only enter the Pacific Ocean alone.
It is likely that China also knows that such exercises are amateurish, as any American or Japanese fighter jet could easily shoot down Chinese bombers. On November 30th, in order to allow the J-16 to continue escorting the H-6 bomber beyond the Miyako Strait, China deployed the refueling tanker Y-20 for support. This should be the first time that Chinese fighter jets and bombers simultaneously flew beyond the Miyako Strait for joint long-range training, but also revealed that the actual range of the J-16 fighter jet is much less than advertised.
The main reason for the shortened range of the J-16 fighter jet is likely due to the domestic engine’s performance being far inferior to the Russian-made engines used in the Su-30, which may also consume more fuel.
It is estimated that the Miyako Strait is already on the edge of the J-16’s actual combat range. Due to the slower speed of the H-6 bomber, the escorting J-16 would operate at a slower economical cruising speed instead of maximum speed when near the first island chain, allowing it to barely cross the Miyako Strait. However, without aerial refueling, the J-16 would need to return immediately, actually flying only over 800 kilometers. Therefore, it is inferred that the true range of the J-16 fighter jet may be below 2,000 kilometers.
When the H-6 bomber returned from the Miyako Strait, two additional J-16 fighter jets were sent to meet it at the strait, confirming that this may have been close to the limit of the J-16’s range.
On November 29th, Chinese H-6 bombers traveled from the East China Sea to the Sea of Japan to participate in joint drills with the Russian military, escorted by two J-16 fighter jets. However, after entering the Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan, the J-16 fighters returned prematurely, leaving the H-6 bomber to proceed alone into the Sea of Japan. Based on the flight track map released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, the distance from Shanghai to the turnaround point in the Tsushima Strait is approximately slightly over 900 kilometers for the Chinese J-16 fighter jets. This also confirms that the actual range of the J-16 may not exceed 2,000 kilometers.
Photos taken by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces showed that the J-16 only carried four air-to-air missiles. As a heavy fighter, with not carrying a full load of weaponry, its range would be difficult to reach 2,000 kilometers, suggesting that the actual combat radius would be much lower than the advertised 1,850 kilometers.
The J-16 has a total of 12 hardpoints for weapons, and carrying only four air-to-air missiles would be the lightest load, potentially achieving the longest range but falling considerably short of the actual combat radius. The limited range of the J-16 determines that it may not be very effective in the air superiority contest near the first island chain.
If the J-16 were to carry heavier KD-88 air-to-ground missiles and YJ-83 anti-ship missiles, the effective range would likely be further compressed. Mounting a long-range strike on U.S. bases in Okinawa or targeting U.S. warships beyond the first island chain appears to be quite challenging.
On October 14th, the Chinese claimed that the aircraft carried live ammunition during a military exercise encircling Taiwan. Videos showed that the J-16/Su-30 and J-10 fighters only carried four air-to-air missiles. This likely represents the standard configuration for Chinese fighter aircraft in combat exercises. It indicates that China is likely aware of the actual range of fighters like the J-16, but with a full weapons load, the range would be even shorter, making it difficult to execute long-range air combat and strike missions, which could also pose safety risks.
The embarrassing performance of the J-16, China’s mainstream fighter jet, reflects the current state of the Chinese air force, suggesting that the J-11 and J-10 are likely even worse. China seems reluctant to mention the J-11 anymore, likely for clear reasons. The Su-30 imported from Russia is believed to have better performance than the J-16 due to the engines, but these Su-30s are also aging.
The U.S. military is about to deploy F-15EX fighter jets to bases in Okinawa, with a maximum range of 3,900 kilometers and a combat radius of 1272 kilometers. China deliberately exaggerates the data for the J-16 to surpass the capabilities of the U.S. F-15EX, but the actual disparity is substantial. If China inflates the capabilities of the J-16 to such as extent, can the J-20, also using domestically produced engines, realistically claim a combat radius of 2,000 kilometers? What about the recently unveiled J-35, with an advertised combat radius of 1,200 kilometers?
In the two days of exercises, the H-6 bombers were not seen carrying any weapons, possibly to ensure flight range or safety, opting for empty flights.
Following the missile incident, there have been incidents in military enterprises, raising doubts about the performance of various Chinese missiles and causing the Chinese Central Military Commission to likely not have much confidence; if the Chinese air force were to be further scrutinized, another case of misrepresenting fighter performance may emerge.
On December 1st, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense claimed that the joint patrol in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean by the Chinese and Russian air forces from November 29th to 30th effectively tested and enhanced joint training and operational capabilities.
The deployment of the Y-20 aerial refueling tanker near the first island chain to refuel the J-16 may be an attempt to project strength. However, in actual combat, if the refueling tanker were to fly to the first island chain, the transit area would likely be the front line of the most intense aerial combat, bordering on suicidal behavior. With poor performance of Chinese aircraft, such amateurish exercises would likely boost the confidence of American and Japanese fighter pilots.
U.S., Japanese, and South Korean fighter jets frequently engage in joint drills in the Western Pacific, with aerial refueling being common practice. However, U.S. refueling tankers generally do not fly near the first island chain and certainly not close to the coast of mainland China. Slower tankers are easy targets for enemy fighters and may not evade adversary air defense systems, necessitating the establishment of safe aerial refueling corridors in the rear airspace.
It is alarming that the Chinese refueling tanker flew close to the Miyako Strait, fueling the J-16 under the close observation of Japanese fighter jets, a move that would likely have resulted in the aircraft being shot down in actual combat. Should the refueling tanker be destroyed, the J-16 would have to hastily return.
Japan’s Type 12 surface-to-air missiles have a maximum range of 400 kilometers, and Japan also possesses F-35 and F-15 fighter jets, making it difficult for Chinese refueling tankers, fighters, and bombers to approach the Japanese islands and the Miyako area and not even mentioning transiting the Miyako Strait to the Pacific Ocean.
The amateurish exercises of the Chinese air force remain politically motivated and lack significant practical value; yet, China declares that it has “effectively tested and enhanced joint training and operational capabilities.”
In the historical context of China-Japan relations, the First Sino-Japanese War was notably marked by the Battle of the Yellow Sea, where the Qing Empire’s supposedly superior Beiyang Fleet did not possess modern naval tactics, leading to a humiliating defeat. In a potential conflict between China and Japan today, aerial combat is most likely to unfold. The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force has long trained with the U.S. military, highlighting a considerable gap in tactical aptitude and the overall performance of Chinese fighter aircraft is of concern, despite continuous boasting. If Chinese fighters were to engage with Japanese counterparts, they could be at a disadvantage and would likely fare even worse against U.S. forces.
China’s main fighters, the J-16 and J-11, mimic Russian aircraft, with related training referencing the Russian military. The J-20, China’s fighter borrowed from U.S. designs, lacks the training methods of American fifth-generation fighters. With escalating tensions between China and the U.S., China relies on closer ties with Russia but conducts joint bomber exercises only once or twice a year. Both sides rarely train together, and overall, Chinese pilots may not match the skills of Russian counterparts.
While China and Russia claim unrestricted cooperation, in reality, they fundamentally distrust each other. Russia likely views China’s aggressive imitation of Russian jets with contempt and may not be willing to conduct combined training with Chinese fighters. Russia only deploys early Tu-95 bombers to train with China’s H-6 bombers, failing to send more advanced Tu-160 bombers, as the Chinese bombers are unable to keep up. In practice, Russian aerospace tactics appear outdated, yet Russia seems unwilling to share such knowledge with China. The joint bomber exercises between the two countries are merely symbolic.
On the other hand, U.S., Japanese, and South Korean fighter jets frequently engage in joint drills with high mutual trust, possessing similar fighter types. The U.S. consistently shares tactical expertise with its allies. American fighters and bombers can freely enter the airspace and territory of Japan and South Korea, taking off and landing at bases in Japan and Korea, a level of cooperation far beyond what the Sino-Russian partnership currently achieves.
On November 29th, the first phase of the joint exercises between China and Russia with bomber aircraft occurred in the Sea of Japan. If trust were present between both sides, the Chinese H-6 bombers and the accompanying J-16 fighter jets should have flown to Russian bases near Vladivostok in advance. The aircrews of both sides could have communicated and briefed together ahead of the mission, engaging in a unified exercise. However, these basic joint exercise processes were omitted.
If deemed cumbersome, Chinese bombers and fighters could have taken off from the northeastern regions to swiftly enter the Sea of Japan by transiting a brief segment of Russian airspace. However, Russia likely would not allow this. It’s unlikely Russia would permit Chinese military aircraft to fly through its airspace in the far east region towards the Sea of Japan. Following China’s formal acknowledgment of territorial concessions to Russia, the Northeast region has lost its direct sea route to the Sea of Japan, and aircraft cannot fly directly from the northeast to enter the Sea of Japan.
Chinese bombers and warplanes can only traverse through the Tsushima Strait between Japan and Korea each time to enter the Sea of Japan, as circumventing routes are longer. Once the Chinese fighter jets reach the Tsushima Strait, they can only turn back as they are unable to venture further, preventing them from escorting the bombers.
Likely, China does not allow Russian bombers and fighters to station at bases in the Eastern Theater Command in advance or fly over Chinese airspace, and North Korea probably does not permit such actions either. Therefore, in the second phase of the exercise between China and Russia, Russian bombers can only fly from the Sea of Japan through the Tsushima Strait into the East China Sea, transit through the Miyako Strait into the Pacific Ocean, and then return the same route. Due to the distance involved, Russian fighters cannot provide escort for the bombers, leaving them to operate independently.
Previously, on July 26, 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers approached U.S. Alaska and were intercepted by U.S. and Canadian fighter jets. Chinese H-6 bombers need to fly to Russian bases in advance, or else the range would be insufficient to participate in similar training. However, this exercise involving Chinese bombers coordinating with Russia to threaten U.S. northern territories, Russia has not reciprocated by threatening Guam jointly with China’s H-6 bombers.
This exercise has revealed the actual range of the J-16, with the Chinese refueling tanker flying into the frontline and the bombers entering Japanese airspace without carrying weapons. This amateurish exercise is a further demonstration of China’s “illusory combat strength.”
(Note: The names, dates, and sources of the original article have been omitted as requested.)