Japan is facing increasingly serious aging issues and challenges of a shortage of nursing manpower. Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics technology may become the solution, but there are differing opinions within the industry on whether robots can completely replace human labor.
Recently, at a technology showcase in Tokyo, an AI-driven humanoid robot named AIREC was demonstrated on how it could assist elderly individuals in bed with turning over, a movement that helps with changing diapers or preventing bedsores. Weighing 150 kilograms (about 330 pounds), this robot is a prototype of future “smart care,” aimed at alleviating Japan’s escalating nursing manpower crisis.
Developed by a team led by Shigeki Sugano, a professor at Waseda University and president of the Japan Robotics Society, AIREC has received funding from the Japanese government. Professor Sugano noted that considering Japan’s aging population trend and low birth rate, robots will play an increasingly important role in healthcare, nursing, and daily life.
Japan is one of the most aged societies globally, with its population structure undergoing drastic changes. By the end of 2024, the post-World War II baby boomer generation (born between 1947-1949) will all be at least 75 years old, leading to a sharp increase in demand for nursing services and further exacerbating the shortage of nursing manpower.
According to the latest statistics from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, the number of newborns in Japan hit a historic low at the end of 2024, with only 720,988 births, a 5% decrease from the previous year and a consecutive nine-year decline.
Simultaneously, the labor gap in the nursing industry is widening, with the job-to-applicant ratio in the Japanese nursing sector at 1:4.25 in December 2024, meaning there were 4.25 job openings per job seeker, significantly higher than the national average of 1:1.22, highlighting a severe shortage of nursing staff.
Despite the Japanese government relaxing some immigration policies to allow foreign nursing personnel into the industry, as of 2023, the number of foreign nursing workers was only about 57,000, accounting for less than 3% of the overall nursing workforce, making it challenging to effectively fill the labor gap.
Under the pressure of a shortage of nursing staff, many eldercare facilities in Japan have begun introducing robots to assist with care. Takashi Miyamoto, operations director of the Zenkoukai chain of eldercare facilities, stated that the institution’s nursing staff is currently struggling to maintain the status quo, and in the next 10 to 15 years, the situation could become more critical, with technology potentially being the only solution.
Zenkoukai has already implemented robot applications in some facilities. For example, in nursing homes, small robots assist nursing staff by singing and leading elders in stretching exercises, while smart sleep monitoring sensors track the sleep patterns of the elderly, reducing the need for nighttime nursing staff patrols and improving work efficiency.
Although nursing robots show immense potential, their development still faces technical challenges. While companies like Tesla are developing robots such as Optimus, Professor Sugano pointed out that currently, most robots are only used for household cleaning or industrial production, and nursing robots that can safely interact with humans require higher precision and intelligent technology.
He emphasized that ensuring safety and coordination with human actions when robots are involved in the nursing field would be the biggest challenge. Human care needs vary, and nursing robots must be able to precisely understand the needs and behavior patterns of each elderly individual to truly be effective.
The design goal of AIREC is to assist the elderly with daily care and household tasks, like helping to sit up, putting on socks, simple cooking, and folding clothes. However, AIREC is still in the development stage and is expected to be put into practical use no earlier than 2030, with an initial estimated price of 10 million Japanese yen (about $67,000), which remains a costly investment for many eldercare facilities.
Opinions within the industry vary on whether robots can replace nursing human labor. Takaki Ito, a caregiver at Zenkoukai, suggested that if AI robots could fully understand the daily habits and individual traits of each elderly person, they might be able to directly provide care services in the future. However, he believes that robots cannot entirely replace human nursing staff, and the ideal future would involve collaboration between robots and humans to enhance the quality of care.
With the changing demographics in Japan, AI and robotics technology are gradually becoming important auxiliary tools in the nursing industry. However, the development of nursing robots still faces multiple challenges such as technology, cost, ethics, and societal acceptance. Balancing technological innovation with human-centered care will be a crucial issue for the future of the nursing industry in Japan.