In 2024, significant changes took place on the battlefields of Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific potential battlefield. However, the positions of the opposing parties on these three major battlefields did not undergo substantial changes, which determined the continuation of conflicts and confrontations throughout the year, continuing to pose great dangers to the world.
The Russia-Ukraine war entered its third year, with Russian forces relying on their overall numerical superiority to continue advancing in the eastern regions of Ukraine, making gradual progress but also suffering high casualties. The pace of Russia’s offensives accelerated in the second half of the year, with a total of approximately 125,800 casualties in September, October, and November, and an occupation of about 2,000 square kilometers of land in Ukraine.
In 2024, Russian forces occupied over 3,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, currently holding about 99% of Luhansk Oblast, approximately 66% of Donetsk Oblast, and around 73% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. The primary focus of Russia’s attacks is on Donetsk Oblast, where the strategic goal is to quickly occupy the entire region; however, to achieve this goal, they would need to occupy another approximately 8,000 square kilometers of land. Based on current casualty rates, Russia would incur over 400,000 casualties to capture this additional land.
The UK Ministry of Defense estimated that Russian casualties in November 2024 exceeded 45,000, with an average of 1,523 deaths per day and a peak of 2,030 deaths on November 28th. Since the start of the war in 2022, Russian casualties totaled around 753,000, with approximately 198,000 deaths.
The Ukrainian military, which faced a shortage of reinforcements in 2024, shifted to a defensive posture, avoiding the feared collapse. Due to limited manpower, Ukraine adopted a strategy of defense in depth to minimize casualties and maximize the attrition of Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have estimated around 413,000 casualties since the beginning of the war, with approximately 43,000 deaths; however, a higher proportion of Ukrainian soldiers returned to the battlefield after recovering from their injuries.
Despite some tactical advances, Russian forces have not achieved their strategic goal of fully occupying eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has been able to maintain a stand-off with Russian forces, prompting NATO to provide more assistance. The overall deadlock on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield remained unbroken in 2024.
The overall superiority of the Russian military did not translate into the expected victory, primarily because the Russian military is not a modernized force, with significant losses in personnel and equipment leading to a decline in combat effectiveness.
While the Ukrainian military is generally at a disadvantage, it has received Western military equipment superior to Russian equipment. Some Ukrainian soldiers have undergone Western military training, enhancing their combat capabilities and enabling them to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.
In August, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack, penetrating into the Russian territory of Kursk. They quickly occupied over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory within 10 days, putting Moscow on the defensive, and to this day, has not fully recaptured the occupied land.
In May, Russian forces deployed about 50,000 troops to launch a new offensive towards Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, extending the front line by 1,200 kilometers, but failed to achieve a breakthrough. Following Ukraine’s counteroffensive into Russia’s Kursk region in August, most of the Russian forces on the Kharkiv front were forced to return, leading to a gradual stalemate in that area.
In 2024, both sides attempted to open new fronts to disrupt the battlefield to some extent but struggled to achieve a breakthrough. Russia, to maintain continuous pressure in eastern Ukraine, was reluctant to divert forces back to Kursk, lacking sufficiently combat-ready troops to fend off Ukrainian counterattacks. Consequently, they received reinforcements from North Korea, although this has not yet become a decisive force to break the stalemate.
North Korea dispatched 12,000 soldiers to Russia to engage in the counterattack in Kursk. It is reported that over 3,000 of them have been casualties. Russian forces placed North Korean soldiers at the front lines as cannon fodder, allowing some progress before sending reinforcements to occupy newly gained territories. Due to language barriers, Russian artillery struggled to support North Korean offensives effectively, failing to provide adequate armor protection, leaving North Korean soldiers exposed to Ukrainian firepower and drones.
Throughout 2024, the Ukrainian military continued to receive NATO military assistance, including artillery, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and more effective air defense weapons like Patriot missiles. Additionally, F-16 fighter jets played a role in intercepting Russian missiles.
The most critical US military support came from the deployment of Army Tactical Missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, eventually allowed to strike targets inside Russia, prompting other NATO countries to relax related restrictions. Ukraine used missiles to target Russian command centers, ammunition depots, airfields, forcing Russian fighter jets to retreat, significantly complicating their air operations.
Ukraine has been mass-producing various types of drones, which have addressed some of the disadvantages in the battlefield, launching drone attacks on oil depots, military factories, and airfields within Russian territory.
Despite significant changes in the Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict shows no signs of abating. Russia is unwilling to withdraw its troops, and Ukraine refuses to surrender, maintaining the unchanging overall stalemate.
The substantial depletion of Russian forces on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield has eroded the country’s strength, preventing further involvement in the Middle East. This led to the rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, as Russia’s influence declined, directly impacting the Middle East battlefield.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing 767 civilians, 376 Israeli security personnel, and abducting over 200 hostages, unleashing over 5,000 rockets towards Israel, sparking the Hama War.
The Israeli military swiftly mobilized, using their significant aerial and ground superiority to eliminate Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, securing a decisive victory in the first half of 2024. The remaining Hamas forces were forced underground, hesitant to engage.
On April 13, Iran joined the conflict, launching over 300 drones and missiles at Israel, with over 99% intercepted by the coalition forces and Israel. On April 18, Israel retaliated with limited airstrikes, targeting and destroying an S-300 surface-to-air missile radar near an Iranian nuclear facility. Iran was temporarily compelled to halt further actions.
Israel, engaging against two adversaries, skillfully cleared the Gaza battlefield and redirected its focus towards Hezbollah in Lebanon. During the Hama War, Hezbollah launched over 6,700 rockets, missiles, and suicide drones at Israel. In response, Israel conducted limited airstrikes.
On September 17, Israel launched the groundbreaking “Operation Grim Beeper,” detonating explosives planted in pagers and walkie-talkies, inflicting heavy losses on Hezbollah members. Subsequent Israeli airstrikes decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership.
Israel, equipped with 58 F-15s, 175 F-16s, and 39 F-35 fighters purchased from the US, boasting the sixth-largest air force globally, played a crucial role in the 2024 Middle East conflict, showcasing modern precision airstrikes. Base by base, arsenal by arsenal, Israel secured victory, compelling Hezbollah to seek peace.
Iran attempted to bolster Hezbollah’s weakened position, launching a second large-scale missile attack on Israel, but with limited impact. On October 26, Israel deployed about 100 fighter jets for a second retaliatory strike against Iran, destroying anti-aircraft radar systems and missile production facilities. Despite facing three adversaries, Israel maintained the upper hand.
On November 27, the Syrian civil war reignited, with anti-government forces swiftly advancing, capturing Damascus on December 8, resulting in the disintegration of the Assad regime. The Israeli Air Force promptly conducted strikes on potential threats within Syria, reinforcing its position, and preventing any resurgence of terrorism.
On December 26, Israel retaliated against missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group, completing the year with a one-against-five victory. Meanwhile, the US continued strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, weakening their ability to attack ships in the Red Sea and cutting off Iranian military support to the Houthis.
The Middle East battlefield witnessed significant changes in 2024, with Israel confidently facing multiple adversaries. Terror organizations supported by Iran suffered severe blows, diminishing Iran’s regional influence. The decline of Russian influence directly led to the reversal of the Syrian civil war. However, Iran-led armed groups continued to pose a threat to Israel, with US Arab allies still relying on American military presence in the Middle East.
The most pressing concern for the US military remains the potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. China hopes that the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East battlefields will continue to tie down the US and is providing military support to Russia while covertly supporting Iran and its affiliated terrorist organizations.
The US military is aware of China’s tactics and is using them to its advantage. By supporting Russia’s aggressive incursion into Ukraine, which strained China-Europe relations, the US and the EU have come closer together, imposing joint sanctions on China, with supply chains shifting away from dependence on China, resulting in increased political pressure and severe technological restrictions on China, causing economic decline.
Changes also occurred in the Indo-Pacific region in 2024, with internal unrest within the Chinese military. Despite continued provocations toward Taiwan, deployments of aircraft carriers, and naval vessels near the Philippines, and maneuvers around Japan, China’s internal military challenges have been closely monitored by the US military.
The US deployed aircraft carriers to the Middle East, significantly reducing the risk of potential aggression by the Chinese military. During the release of the Chinese military power report by the Pentagon at the year’s end, US Department of Defense officials notably downplayed the Chinese military capabilities.
China’s high-profile introduction of the J-35, but the revelation of the limited range of the J-16 flying beyond the first island chain exposed the exaggeration. Nonetheless, China persisted with the high-profile launch of the Type 076 amphibious assault ship at the year’s end, attempting to mask internal vulnerabilities.
The US’s deployment of a distributed base in the Indo-Pacific theater, deepening cooperation with allies, and stationing advanced missiles in the Philippines have bolstered confidence in deterring China. China’s recent exercises targeting Taiwan exposed concerns about possible air raids by US or coalition forces on coastal areas like Shanghai.
Chinese forces had to make concessions in the India-China border dispute, fearing threats from multiple fronts. Additionally, North Korean troops entering the Russia-Ukraine battlefield destabilized the situation on the Korean Peninsula, unfavorable to China. Ongoing hot conflicts persist in the Indo-Pacific, with Myanmar’s civil war escalating, shells landing in Chinese territory, further complicating China’s defense in the southern battle zone.
China is wary of Vietnam becoming another Philippines – trying to woo while being cautious, controlling the South China Sea, facing pressure from all fronts in the southern battle zone.
Changes occurred in the Indo-Pacific region in 2024, but the confrontational stance between China and the US and its allies remains unchanged. The three major battlefields and potential theaters interacted, each enduring another year marked by both changes and continuities.