In recent times, the Chinese Communist Party’s military is still trying to show off its strength by continuously sending military aircraft and ships to harass Taiwan, with ships continuing to cross Japanese islands and bomber planes appearing near Alaska. However, following the appearance of U.S. B-2 bombers in a sinking exercise, on July 30, the CCP’s Politburo suddenly collectively studied “border and coastal defense,” revealing concerns from Zhongnanhai. As the “81st anniversary” approaches, the CCP military websites had to simultaneously talk about “building a politically strong military,” “strengthening the military,” and “border and coastal defense,” sending out absurdly mixed signals.
On July 30th, the CCP Politburo collectively studied “border and coastal defense.” Xi Jinping’s speech stated, “As the changes of the century accelerate… the connotations and extensions of border and coastal defense have undergone profound changes, and the influencing factors have become more complex. Border and coastal defense construction is facing new opportunities and challenges.”
During the Rim of the Pacific Exercise 2024 (RIMPAC 2024) on July 19, the live-fire sinking exercise (SINKEX) saw two retired U.S. amphibious assault ships being sunk; another retired amphibious ship dock landing ship was also sunk on July 11. The exercise was clearly targeting the CCP’s Type 075 amphibious assault ship and Type 071 landing ship. The precision-guided bombs carried by B-2 bombers delivered the final blow.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense claimed they are “unafraid,” but Zhongnanhai is indeed fearful. B-2 bombers can sink the CCP’s landing vessels, strike military targets along the coast, and even bomb Beijing. The CCP’s top officials cannot not be afraid. On the eve of the “81st anniversary,” the CCP Political Bureau did not study “strengthening the military,” but suddenly focused on studying “border and coastal defense,” revealing a major concern.
Xi Jinping also emphasized, “Strengthening new means and conditions for border and coastal defense… Deepening major issues in border and coastal defense research… Optimizing the civil air defense construction model, building a modern civil air defense system… Central and State organs, relevant departments, local Party committees, and governments must strengthen defense awareness.”
This series of unusual demands brings to mind the limited airstrikes between Israel and Iran back in April. On the night of April 13, Iran launched approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles towards Israel, with Israel claiming that 99% were intercepted. U.S. and coalition forces also participated in the interception operation. On April 18, Israel retaliated by destroying at least one S-300 anti-aircraft missile radar near an Iranian nuclear facility.
The CCP’s air defense system, primarily consisting of the S-300 and the indigenous HQ-9, is likely unable to withstand U.S. air strikes. It is natural for the CCP’s top officials to be worried. Former U.S. President Trump later made a shocking statement, saying that if the CCP invaded Taiwan during his tenure, he would bomb Beijing. On July 3, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the deployment of 48 F-35A fighters to Japan and the replacement of the old F-15C/D fighters with F-15EX fighters, while Marine Corps F-35B fighters continue to be stationed in Japan. With the USS Washington now stationed in Japan, F-35C fighters will also be stationed there. On July 19, the U.S. B-2 bomber appeared during the sinking exercise. These actions have further unsettled Zhongnanhai.
On August 1st, the CCP’s “Qiushi” magazine published Xi Jinping’s article “Achieving the Centennial Goal of Building the Military, Creating a New Situation in the Modernization of National Defense and the Armed Forces,” which is part of the report he delivered at the 20th CCP National Congress on October 16, 2022. The article first emphasizes the Party’s “absolute leadership” over the military, and then calls for “researching and mastering the characteristics and laws of information-based intelligent warfare… increasing the proportion of new domains and new qualities of combat capabilities… advancing the reconnaissance, early warning, joint strike, battlefield support, comprehensive support systems and capacity building… deepening the actual combat military training… and winning local wars.”
The CCP military has repeatedly chanted “strengthening the military,” but knowing that it is not yet a modernized force, it can only hope to handle a limited regional conflict at most.
The article also mentions the need to “accelerate the construction of modern logistics, implement major projects in national defense technology and weapons, and speed up the transformation of technology into combat effectiveness.”
After the Rocket Force and Equipment Department were purged, the CCP’s DF-21 missile inventory has also significantly reduced. The slogan of “strengthening the military” has collapsed in a large part; incidents with submarines are rumored to have occurred. The slogan of “strengthening the military” is now more likely to be replaced by the slogan of “political restructuring.”
On July 31st, the CCP Ministry of National Defense held a “81st anniversary” reception, where Defense Minister Dong Jun stated, “Lead the new expedition of strengthening the military with the new era’s political strengthening military strategy… Forge absolute loyalty.” The previous emphasis on “focusing on preparing for war and winning” was placed in the background.
Dong Jun failed to be appointed as a member of the Military Commission at the Third Plenum, and he must feel uneasy. He is vigorously demonstrating his loyalty. He certainly knows that the primary issue facing the CCP military is not “preparing for war” but rather ensuring “loyalty” to the CCP leader through “political restructuring.” Before the concerns of internal military unrest are resolved, the CCP leader should not dare to start an external war. Now, the U.S. military’s deterrence is becoming more and more real, and the CCP military is more afraid of facing a blow.
On August 1st, the CCP’s “PLA Daily” also published an article titled “Promoting the Construction of Modern Border and Coastal Defense,” quickly echoing Xi Jinping’s latest speech. The article states that Xi’s speech “analyzed the new opportunities and challenges facing the construction of border and coastal defense” and answered a series of “fundamental, holistic, and directional significant issues” related to modern “border and coastal defense,” providing fundamental guidance for various tasks.
Xi Jinping’s latest speech has become a new “highest command.” The article also combines modern history, stating, “No defense on land, wide open gates at sea, bandits coming and going in the air… National defense includes border and coastal defense and relies on border and coastal defense… This is the nation’s greatest defense.”
The CCP military is continuously provoking and showing off its might, but also aware of the numerous defensive vulnerabilities along the coast. Suddenly bringing up “border and coastal defense” again overnight reveals a deep concern among military officers at all levels. Everyone hopes to ensure defense before launching an attack; ideally, defense without needing to attack. Nobody wants war, and it seems many senior officers would rather idle away with vast military budgets.
Xi Jinping’s speech regarding “border and coastal defense” lacks much concrete content, but it mentions “optimizing the civil air defense construction model, building a modern civil air defense system… and that central organs and relevant departments of the state, local party committees, and governments must strengthen national defense awareness.”
The People’s Liberation Army Daily’s article can only repeat the same words. Both the top and bottom levels of the CCP military know that the so-called “border and coastal defense” is primarily aimed at preparing for U.S. air strikes. From the Yellow Sea, East China Sea to Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and other long coastlines, the U.S. has many potential targets for air strikes, with multiple attack routes. Stealth fighters have penetrating strike capabilities, making it difficult for the CCP’s air defense system to counter.
According to the CCP, “civil air defense” is presented alongside “key area air defense” and “field air defense.” Xi Jinping only mentions “civil air defense” but does not include “key area air defense” and “field air defense.” However, by mentioning that central agencies and local party committees must “strengthen national defense awareness,” it hints that these might all be potential targets for U.S. air strikes.
The so-called “civil air defense” mainly includes air defense alerts, evacuation measures, protection of important targets, and disaster relief after air raids. By solely mentioning “civil air defense,” the CCP may try to stir up certain fears to intensify anti-U.S. sentiments among the public. However, this also reveals the truth that the CCP’s air defense missiles are primarily used to protect military targets and CCP officials, not ordinary people. In reality, the U.S. would not attack innocent civilians; the CCP’s top officials fear becoming targets of air strikes, and the CCP’s military and political institutions are likely air strike targets.
CCP military websites and newspapers need to promptly promote Xi Jinping’s speech on “border and coastal defense,” but cannot forget political restructuring. On August 1st, the CCP’s military website also released an article “Scientific Guide for the Political Military in the New Era New Expedition — In-depth study and implementation of Xi chairman’s important speech at the Central Military Commission Political Work Meeting.”
The article claims that Xi’s speech clarifies what to “insist on and prevent,” emphasizing that “problem rectification must be the focus and not let go.”
It can be foreseen that there will be more news of purges within the CCP’s military. Recently, the newly appointed Southern Theater Commander, Wu Yanan, appeared. He served as the commander of the Central Theater in 2022, then transferred to the Joint Operations Command Center of the Central Military Commission in 2023, and is now appointed as Southern Theater Commander.
The previous Southern Theater Commander, Wang Xiubin, was found present during the CCP Political Bureau’s collective study on July 30, appearing to have been promoted. Wang Xiubin was the Deputy Commander of the 31st Group Army in 2013, and should be considered one of Xi Jinping’s trusted subordinates. He was promoted to Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of the Eastern Theater in 2019, when He Weidong was the Eastern Theater Commander. In 2021, Wang Xiubin was promoted to Southern Theater Commander to be on par with He Weidong.
The newly appointed Northern Theater Commander, Huang Ming, also made a recent appearance. He was the Central Theater Commander in 2023 and was now transferred to the Northern Theater. Former Northern Theater Commander Wang Qiang is reportedly undergoing another assignment, with some speculating that he might be transferred to the Central Theater.
These individuals seem not to have been purged but are beginning a new round of transfers, indicating Xi Jinping’s lack of trust in anyone. Even if no issues have been found with certain military officers, they cannot remain in the same position for long; frequent rotations are necessary to prevent cliques or factions from forming. Political restructuring has reached numerous senior generals. The main theater commanders have not had enough time to get familiar with the situation before being moved again. If they are indeed preparing for war, this situation is clearly very unfavorable.
Following the completion of the Third Plenum, “Qiushi” magazine published another article by Xi Jinping, and the CCP’s military newspaper had to follow suit. On August 1st, the CCP’s “PLA Daily” published an editorial titled “Accelerating the Modernization of National Defense and the Armed Forces under the Party’s Leadership to Make New and Greater Contributions to Promote China’s Modernization.” The article mentions Xi Jinping’s “strengthening the military” ideology, emphasizes “advancing political restructuring,” and also caters to “China’s style of modernization”; other articles are forced to promote “border and coastal defense.”
On August 1st, at least seven to eight various-themed articles were sent out by the CCP’s military websites. The CCP military is faced with multiple conflicting tasks and releasing mixed signals of confusion. Political officers should have plenty of material to work on, but military leaders may feel at a loss.
Around the “81st anniversary,” the CCP military simultaneously promoted “strengthening the military,” “political restructuring,” and “border and coastal defense,” revealing chaos within the CCP’s military ranks once again.
Chinese and Russian bombers flew to Alaska without fighter escort, intercepted by U.S. and Canadian aircraft; CCP warships have also been near Alaska recently. The CCP military knows that attacking the U.S. mainland is challenging and can only make symbolic gestures towards Alaska. While it appears that the CCP is showing an offensive stance, it cannot hide the turmoil caused by political purges in the military.
CCP aircraft and warships continue to harass the Taiwan Strait, with warships circling Japanese islands for provocation. However, after U.S. B-2 bombers appeared in the sinking exercise, the CCP Politburo hastily studied “border and coastal defense” again. The top CCP officials are more afraid of being struck and dropping bombs on their heads.
The CCP military wants to attack but cannot find a way out; they want to defend but fear they cannot hold out. Even their slogans of showing strength have become disordered.
Epoch Times Exclusive.