Recently, the Japan Ministry of Defense released the 2024 Defense White Paper, revealing a significant reduction in the number of medium-range missiles in the Chinese Rocket Force, particularly with the disappearance of the DF-21D missile. It seems that China has also recognized the gap with the US fifth-generation fighters, as the growth in the number of fourth-generation aircraft in the Chinese Air Force has almost stagnated. While the Chinese leadership is cracking down on the military, the large-scale arms race appears to be unsustainable.
In the 2023 Japan Defense White Paper, it was disclosed that the Chinese Rocket Force had a total of 278 medium-range missiles, an increase of 24 from 2022 and 62 from 2021, showing a continuous growth trend. However, the 2024 Japan Defense White Paper shows a decrease in the number of Chinese medium-range missiles to 212, even fewer than in 2021.
The most significant change is seen in the DF-21 missile series. In 2023, the Japan Defense White Paper indicated a total of 70 DF-21 missiles, but by 2024, only 24 DF-21A/E missiles remained. The DF-21/B/C/D variants have all disappeared, particularly the DF-21D, known as the “aircraft carrier killer,” which is no longer present, surprising many observers.
The data in the Japan Defense White Paper is generally considered relatively accurate, and the Ministry of Defense should not make mistakes with such critical numbers since the DF-21 missiles are closely related to Japan’s security. With a maximum range of 2,150 kilometers, the DF-21 missiles pose a constant threat to Japan and are one of the potential missiles Japan is prepared to intercept in case of an attack.
In 2022, the Japan Defense White Paper revealed that China had a total of 134 DF-21 missiles, remaining relatively stable for the past two years. However, in 2023, the number decreased to 70, indicating that China may be phasing out older models. The further reduction to 24 missiles in 2024 suggests that China may have lost confidence in the existing DF-21 missiles. The absence of the DF-21D anti-ship missile could potentially debunk earlier claims, revealing possible deception both internationally and within Chinese leadership.
The DF-21 missile series being largely phased out may be due to its poor performance and limited range, restricting deployment to coastal areas vulnerable to counterattacks from US forces. American destroyers and submarines can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the DF-21 missiles face high risks in coastal regions. In contrast, the inland deployment of DF-26 missiles may offer relative safety but may not withstand attacks from US B-2 and upcoming B-21 bombers.
With the DF-21D missile gone and concerns about the reliability of the DF-26, the Chinese Rocket Force may have to rely solely on the DF-17 to target US aircraft carriers. The 2024 Japan Defense White Paper shows an increase in the number of DF-17 missiles from 24 in 2023 to 48 in 2024, doubling their quantity but still poses challenges due to its limited range.
The 2024 Japan Defense White Paper also indicates that China has reduced its inventory of DF-4 intermediate-range missiles, leaving a total of 212 missiles, a significant decrease from the previous years. The number of nuclear warheads in Chinese possession has increased to 410, a substantial rise compared to previous years, demonstrating China’s pursuit to catch up with the superpowers in nuclear capabilities despite the large quality and quantity gaps.
By increasing the production of nuclear warheads, a larger portion of China’s military budget is allocated, potentially compromising other strategic sectors, especially as China’s economy struggles, leading to strained finances reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s path.
The 2024 Japan Defense White Paper also reveals that China’s Rocket Force has added 10 more land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, with the DF-41 missiles increasing to 36 from 24 in 2023. The DF-31’s quantity remains unchanged at 86, while the DF-5 decreased from 20 to 18.
As China prioritizes “political rectification” within the military, the focus on “strengthening the military” has waned. Despite the rapid growth in nuclear weapons, the conventional mid-range missile quantity shrinks, emphasizing the tumult within the Chinese military and a lack of substantial improvement in actual combat capabilities.
The information unveiled in the 2024 Japan Defense White Paper paints a picture of a Chinese military with growing nuclear capabilities but reducing conventional missile quantities, efforts to narrow the gap with US fifth-generation fighters, stable quantities of other aircraft types, and rumors of submarine incidents, indicating a turbulent period that may affect the overall military readiness.
The first release from Epoch Times.