Shen Zhou: Internal Turmoil in CCP Army Hard to Conceal, US Forces Squeeze its Jugular Again

Recently, there has been a surge of turmoil within the Chinese Communist Party’s military, with rumors pointing directly at Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong. Deputy Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission Tang Yong has been stripped of his qualifications as a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Commander of the Eastern Theater Command Lin Xiangyang has also been caught up in the swirling rumors. Additionally, Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin and others have been rumored to be involved in certain incidents. The U.S. military has reportedly obtained relevant intelligence and redirected the aircraft carrier patrolling in the Western Pacific towards the Middle East. At the same time, the U.S. Secretary of Defense visited the Philippines and announced the deployment of anti-ship missiles on islands in the middle of the Bashi Strait, further tightening the grip on key sea passages of the Chinese Navy.

In recent days, Chinese military aircraft have been frequently harassing the Taiwan Strait. From 6:00 on March 21 to 6:00 on March 22, the Taiwan military reported detecting Chinese aircraft crossing the median line and entering the northern, southwestern, and eastern airspace 41 times. The following two days saw a decrease in the number of Chinese military aircraft flights to 13 and 9 times.

From 6:00 on March 24 to 6:00 on March 25, Chinese military aircraft were mobilized 21 times, followed by 27 times, 20 times, and 30 times in the following days. From 6:00 on March 28 to 6:00 on March 29, the harassment seemed to subside, with the Taiwan military detecting only 1 Chinese aircraft. During this period, there were consistently 8 Chinese warships around Taiwan with little variation; the harassment activities were mainly attributed to the Chinese Air Force, making operations relatively easier. Most Chinese military aircraft’s flight routes seemed to be straightforward across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, lacking practical combat value and more resembling theatrical political performances. This move by the Chinese Communist Party serves to maintain its stance on the Taiwan issue, particularly to showcase a confrontational posture towards the United States, while also potentially masking the internal chaos within the Chinese military.

However, on March 25, American media reported that two U.S. Defense Department officials confirmed the removal of Chinese Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong. This effectively exposes the latest turmoil within the Chinese military.

Despite China’s deliberate and frequent harassment of the Taiwan Strait, it has failed to cover up the ongoing internal turmoil. What’s even more suspicious is that during a Chinese Defense Ministry press conference on March 27, when asked about the rumors regarding He Weidong’s incident, the spokesperson astonishingly claimed “not being aware of the situation” instead of directly refuting the speculation. Subsequently, the transcript of the public press conference deliberately omitted this sensitive question and answer. It is widely believed that China’s actions serve to indirectly confirm the rumors.

If He Weidong is indeed facing issues, the Chinese Central Military Commission will lose another key figure. In 2024, Li Shangfu was dismissed from both the military and the party; by the end of 2024, Miao Hua was announced to be suspended for inspection. During the Chinese Two Sessions, out of the original 7 members of the Military Commission, only 5 were present; if He Weidong is removed, it would leave only 4 members. The Chinese Party leader previously visited Guizhou and Yunnan for inspections where, when meeting with representatives of the Kunming military, he was surprisingly alone, further confirming rumors of his loss of military authority. Currently, it is believed that the Chinese Central Military Commission is primarily managed by Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Zhang Shengmin.

Despite China’s continued tough talk towards Taiwan and the Philippines, with half of the Military Commission in disarray, the prospect of external warfare, let alone maintaining stable forces, becomes increasingly challenging. This development naturally bodes well for the U.S. military.

More rumors regarding the Chinese military continue to surface, including the possible involvement of Lin Xiangyang, Commander of the Eastern Theater Command, who is said to have potentially leaked operational plans regarding the Taiwan Strait. However, during a seminar on the “Anti-Secession National Law” held in Beijing on March 15, Lin Xiangyang made an appearance and discussed the characteristics of “routine round-the-island cruises” and the “Sword of Unity” series of exercises, emphasizing the importance of thorough military preparation.

There are also rumors surrounding Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin. Following the 2023 cleaning of the Rocket Force, Navy Vice Commander Wang Houbin switched branches to become the Rocket Force Commander. If these rumors are true, it would mark a second round of purging within the Rocket Force. The Miao Hua case might indeed implicate Wang Houbin, including Dong Jun, a former naval officer nurtured by Miao Hua.

On March 26, Deputy Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission Tang Yong was stripped of his qualifications as a member of the CPPCC, effectively confirming his involvement in incidents. During the Chinese Two Sessions, former Army Political Commissioner Qin Shutong, Navy Political Commissioner Yuan Huazhi, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning have yet to make an appearance, suggesting a grim outlook. Most of the individuals embroiled in the recent turmoil are believed to be close associates or defectors of Xi Jinping within the military.

While Chinese aircraft continue to harass the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military appears to have a clearer understanding of the internal turmoil of the Chinese military and has taken decisive actions to strengthen deterrence in the Western Pacific.

On March 27, U.S. Secretary of Defense visited the Philippines and announced the deployment of anti-ship missiles on the islands, vowing to enhance joint military training and defense industry cooperation to “rebuild” the deterrence capability in the Indo-Pacific region.

The most direct action by the U.S. will be the deployment of anti-ship missiles on islands in the Bashi Strait during the upcoming exercise in April. The weapons to be deployed are naval strike missiles and unmanned launch vehicles from the U.S. Navy Marine Corps, capable of striking targets over 100 nautical miles away.

The Batanes Islands, located between Luzon in the Philippines and Taiwan, are a strategic location for potentially countering Chinese naval vessels passing through the Bashi Strait. By deploying naval strike missiles on Batan Island, the U.S. aims to counter Chinese military vessels passing through the Bashi Strait, holding significant implications for defending Taiwan.

Batan Island, the second-largest island in the Batanes group with a population exceeding 11,000, lies strategically in the middle of the Bashi Strait. With a length of about 4.5 kilometers and varying width, it is suitable for the mobile deployment of the U.S. Marine Corps. Facing frequent threats from China, the Philippines has timely greenlit cooperation with the U.S., fortifying its own defense while actively supporting U.S. deterrence strategies.

It is reported that the U.S. will also deploy high-performance unmanned surface vessels during the exercise, stationed in the Palawan province of the Philippines, near the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. The U.S. will assist the Philippines in operating U.S.-made T-12 and T-38 unmanned vessels.

The T-12 MANTAS unmanned vessel is 3.6 meters long and can conduct maritime surveillance, swarm operations, and electronic warfare. The larger T38 Devil Ray unmanned vessel, approximately 11.1 meters long, with a top speed of up to 70 knots or even more than 100 knots, can carry a maximum payload of 4,000 pounds, capable of autonomous control.

The U.S. and the Philippines also released a joint vision statement on defense industrial cooperation, prioritizing areas such as unmanned systems, munitions, minerals, and aerospace and maritime maintenance and repair. Japan and South Korea have also shown interest in cooperation.

On the same day of Secretary of Defense visit to the Philippines, U.S., Filipino, and Japanese warships conducted joint patrols near the Huangyan Island, with the Southern Theater Command of the Chinese Navy dispatching warships for tracking.

China’s coercive stance towards the Philippines has prompted the Philippines to bolster cooperation with the U.S. The U.S. has effectively utilized the geographical advantages of the various islands in the Philippines, enabling timely blockade of the Bashi Strait and constraining China’s Southern Theater Command in the South China Sea. If China initiates a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the Southern Theater Fleet would need to come to support, yet it would be difficult to safely pass through the Bashi Strait. Simultaneously, the Southern Theater Command must also be wary of potential U.S. offensives in the South China Sea.

With internal turmoil plaguing the Chinese Armed Forces, the risk of initiating war has diminished, allowing the U.S. an opportune moment to enhance deterrence in the Western Pacific. If the Chinese Communist Party were to collapse amidst its internal turmoil, it would be a blessing for the Chinese people, bringing peace to the neighboring countries.

【Epoch Times report】