The Shanghai Municipal Health Commission recently released data showing that the total fertility rate in Shanghai in 2023 was 0.6, ranking among the lowest in the world. Analysis suggests that with the current birth rate, in this metropolitan city of over twenty million people, the population could decline to just 100,000 in five generations.
The report from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission titled “Compilation of Main Statistical Data of Population Monitoring in Shanghai in 2023” revealed that Shanghai’s total fertility rate in 2023 was 0.6, significantly below the national average of 1.0 in China and even lower than the country with the lowest fertility rate, South Korea. Following this news, the phrase “Shanghai’s fertility rate is lower than South Korea’s” went viral on social media platforms.
The total fertility rate represents the average number of children born to women of childbearing age in a country or region. It is generally believed that a country’s total fertility rate should be at least 2.1 to maintain population replacement from one generation to the next. If the rate falls below 1.5, the country may face a “low fertility trap.”
With Shanghai’s total fertility rate at 0.6, it indicates that on average, each woman of childbearing age in the city gives birth to only 0.6 children, less than a third of the replacement level.
According to a commentary from a workplace content creator, if Shanghai’s total fertility rate of 0.6 is considered, without taking into account population inflows, it would only take five generations for the city’s total population to decline to 100,000 in this first-tier city with over twenty million residents.
A survey on population dynamics conducted by the Shanghai Statistics Bureau in 2022 revealed that the most common reason for not intending to have another child among respondents was being “satisfied with the current situation,” accounting for 41.8% of responses. Other top reasons included “high cost of raising children and financial burden” at 28.5% and “age or health reasons” at 13%.
Both industry experts and the public generally attribute the decline in fertility rates to the high cost of raising children and the expensive nature of child-rearing.
A report from a population research institute indicates that raising a child to the age of 18 in China costs around 500,000 RMB on average, with Shanghai being the city with the highest child-rearing costs nationwide, requiring over one million RMB to raise a child to adulthood.
Moreover, when considering additional costs of education, transportation, and housing, a typical family in Shanghai would need to spend millions of RMB to raise a child.
At the end of 2022, the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and above in Shanghai reached 18.7%, higher than the national average of 14.9%. The elderly dependent ratio in Shanghai, which compares the population aged 65 and above to the working-age population, stood at 39.8% in 2022, a 2.5% increase from 2021. The record low fertility rate has further exacerbated the burden of elderly care in Shanghai.
The decline in fertility rates is a widespread issue in China. A study presented at the 2023 annual meeting of the Chinese Population Association by the China Population and Development Research Center estimated that the total fertility rate in China fell to 1.09 in 2022.
In recent years, discussions on rapid population decline in China have centered around the backdrop of economic downturn, high unemployment rates, and intense competition in the job market leading to increased uncertainty among young people about their future, discouraging marriage and childbearing, thereby creating a vicious cycle for the economy.
Additionally, China has experienced two consecutive years of negative population growth. Both the central and local authorities of the Chinese government have introduced policies to encourage women of childbearing age to have more children.
As of August 2023, the Hangzhou Health Commission issued the “Implementation Measures for Parenting Allowances (Trial),” providing one-time subsidies of 2,000 RMB and 5,000 RMB for the second and third child births respectively. In Chongqing, families purchasing newly built residential properties in the downtown area and completing online contract registrations are eligible for subsidies of 20,000 RMB and 30,000 RMB for the second and third children, respectively. Starting from June 1st of this year, Shanghai will include 12 assisted reproductive medical services, such as “oocyte retrieval,” in the scope of medical insurance reimbursement.
However, many scholars argue that the current encouragement for childbirth in China is insufficient, and the incentive mechanisms are misaligned, leading to ineffective policies. Renowned population columnist Huang Wenzheng told Caixin that while increasing maternity leave places the financial burden on companies, the businesses do not directly benefit from employees having more children. Furthermore, local governments lack motivation and financial resources to encourage childbirth.
Huang Wenzheng pointed out, “The cost of child-rearing is borne by families, but the entire society benefits.”
“Vocational expert Luo” believes that while the measures to encourage childbirth in Shanghai may lead to an increase in fertility rates, the structural issues underlying the problem are not exclusive to Shanghai but are prevalent nationwide. In a country trapped in a low fertility rate dilemma, it becomes increasingly challenging to raise the fertility rate.
The “Compilation of Main Statistical Data of Population Monitoring in Shanghai in 2023” also revealed that the average age at first childbirth for registered female residents in Shanghai was 31.66 years, while the average age at childbirth was 32.56 years, representing increases of 1.3 and 1.4 respectively compared to 2022.
Regarding the distribution of children among the population in Shanghai, the rate for first children among the city’s permanent residents stood at 66.24%, the rate for second children was 29.10%, and for third children, 4.21%, with a minimal 0.45% rate for fourth children. In contrast, among registered residents, the rate for first children was 74.03%, second children 24.02%, third children 1.84%, with only 0.11% for fourth children.