Shanghai’s Death Toll Exceeds Births Last Year, Foreign Population Falls Below Ten Million

In recent years since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of permanent residents in Shanghai has been decreasing annually, dropping below 10 million for the first time at the end of last year. At the same time, Shanghai experienced negative population growth in 2024, meaning that the number of deaths exceeded births, leading to an overall population decline. This indicates that Shanghai is entering a period of population decline, facing various challenges in terms of population structure, economic development, and urban attractiveness.

On March 25, 2024, the Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development of Shanghai was released, showing that by the end of the year, the city’s permanent population was 24.8026 million, a decrease of 72,000 from the previous year. Among them, the registered permanent population was 14.9677 million, and the non-registered permanent population was 9.8349 million, a decrease of 237,900. This marks the first time it has dropped below 10 million, indicating a decline in the influx of non-local residents to Shanghai.

In 2024, Shanghai had 118,000 births and 156,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population growth rate of minus 1.53 per thousand. Compared to the end of 2023 when Shanghai’s population was 24.8745 million, the city’s total population decreased by 72,000 people in 2024.

Over the past year, the number of non-local residents in Shanghai has been on the decline, with fewer western faces spotted in the city center compared to before the pandemic, and the annual total retail sales of social consumer goods showing negative growth, all pointing towards a decrease in the total population.

The external population influx in Shanghai peaked in 2020 at 10.48 million, and in the following years it decreased to approximately: 10.32 million (2021), 10.06 million (2022), 10.07 million (2023). In 2024, the number of non-local residents in Shanghai plummeted below 10 million, resulting in a total decrease of 640,000 non-local residents over the years.

Shanghai has had one of the lowest birth rates in the nation for a long time. Even with the relaxation of the birth policy by the Chinese authorities, such as the three-child policy, the willingness of young people to have children remains low. This is mainly attributed to high living costs, parenting pressures, and declining marriage rates.

According to a report by “Triple-life Weekly” in 2023, Shanghai’s birth rate is only 0.7, which is extremely low even on a global scale. Looking at it from a national perspective, the country with the lowest fertility rate globally is South Korea, with a total fertility rate of 0.78 in 2022, indicating that Shanghai’s fertility rate is even lower than South Korea’s.

The high cost of living has led to a delay in the age at which young people get married and have children, significantly reducing the birth rate. A survey by the National Health Commission of China once found that the number one reason women of childbearing age do not want more children is the “heavy economic burden.”

As of 2021, the average annual consumption expenditure per capita in residents in Shanghai and Beijing ranked first and second, respectively, at 49,000 RMB and 46,000 RMB.

Additionally, most young people who come to Shanghai are renting houses. In traditional Chinese culture, it is considered ideal to own a house, especially when getting married and having children, or at least to be able to afford one in the foreseeable future. Therefore, when the timing of having children and buying a house is closely linked, the timetable for having children is significantly delayed.

The high cost of child-rearing is not only reflected in the economic costs of childbirth, care, and education but also in the high direct costs paid out. Moreover, there is a significant time cost for families, especially when there is no one to care for the child, particularly women who face intense conflict between family and work responsibilities, especially when the child is young.

Shanghai is one of the most aged cities in China, with a high proportion of elderly people, leading to an increase in the number of deaths. According to a report by the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, Shanghai’s aging level is comparable to that of Japan, with an estimate that by 2030, 40% of Shanghai’s registered population will be elderly, and by 2050, the population over 60 years old is expected to reach 44.5%, exceeding Japan’s national average of 42.7%, making it one of the most aged cities globally.

For example, in 2017, the permanent population above 60 years old in Shanghai reached 5.3912 million, and the population above 65 years old reached 3.4578 million. Shanghai’s aging rate (the proportion of elderly population above 65 years old to the entire permanent population) reached 14.3%, higher than international metropolises like New York and London. By 2030, it is estimated that 40% of Shanghai’s registered population will be elderly, and by 2050, the population over 60 years old is expected to reach 44.5%, surpassing Japan’s national average of 42.7%, positioning it as one of the most aged cities globally.

In 1990, the death toll in Shanghai was 86,300, with a mortality rate of 6.74‰. By 2018, these numbers had risen to 122,000 (8.4‰). From 1990 to 2018, the cumulative number of deaths in the city reached 2.25 million.

The decrease in the external population in Shanghai is influenced by various factors. The slowdown in Shanghai’s economic growth and adjustments in industrial structure are among the significant reasons for the decline in external population. The demand for foreign labor in traditional manufacturing and low-end service industries has decreased, and while there is an increasing demand for high-skilled talents with the development of high-tech industries, these vacancies may not necessarily attract a large number of non-local residents.

The high cost of living, particularly housing prices, serves as a barrier for non-local residents to settle in Shanghai for an extended period. The rent and living costs in Shanghai rank among the top nationwide, prompting many young people to choose to stay in their hometowns or go to other cities with lower living costs. According to Shanghai’s statistics, the cost of renting still accounts for a major portion of the primary expenditures of many non-local residents, a key consideration they factor in when deciding whether to settle in Shanghai.

The decrease in non-local residents and the decline in the birth rate have not only brought about changes in Shanghai’s population structure but also had profound implications on the city’s economic development.