Shanghai Real Estate Agent: House Prices Still Falling, Don’t Rush to Buy a House

Recently, the official Chinese Communist Party claimed that the real estate market in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai is “warming up”. However, many real estate agents have stated that while the transaction volume of houses has increased compared to before, prices are still continuously decreasing, reminding consumers not to rush into buying properties.

According to data from Wind, from March 1st to 24th, there were 3,416 new residential properties signed in Beijing, an increase of 48.8% compared to February; and 13,675 second-hand properties signed during the same period, a 15% increase from February.

Data from the Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center showed that from January to February this year, there were 31,200 transactions of second-hand houses in Shanghai, the second-highest level for the same period since 2017. The trading center predicts that in March, the number of second-hand house transactions will exceed 25,000, an increase of about 40% compared to the same period last year, 14% higher than the average monthly transaction level of the past five years.

In terms of prices, the Shanghai new home price index has seen a month-on-month increase this year, with increases of 0.6% and 0.2% in January and February respectively; while the second-hand home price index has cumulatively increased by 1.5% since the fourth quarter of last year.

However, industry insiders in Shanghai have a less optimistic outlook on the real estate market and have revealed the true situation of the market.

On March 24th, a real estate agent in Shanghai called “Li Brother Selection of Houses” released a video saying, “Shanghai’s new housing market is in a dead cycle.”

“I’ll speak frankly with everyone. The pressure on Shanghai’s real estate, especially new houses, is very, very high right now. It’s definitely not as prosperous as people are talking about ‘gold in March, silver in April’. I think the overall market is still very stagnant at the moment.”

He mentioned that new properties in the Jing’an District of Shanghai have already begun distribution and that Shanghai is expected to fully launch distribution after March because the current environment is not favorable, and high-end properties need to be distributed to be sold. Additionally, although the transaction volume of new properties has slightly improved, the transaction volume of old houses remains very poor.

He also revealed that selling houses in Shanghai involves a chain reaction, where many customers currently do not have money on hand. Many local Shanghai customers need to sell their houses before buying new ones. Therefore, there has been a stalemate situation.

On the 26th, another real estate agency in Shanghai called “Shanghai Dekun Real Estate Agent” released a video commenting, “I’ve been in the real estate industry in Shanghai for 10 years, and this is the first time I’ve encountered such a strange phenomenon recently. You say prices have gone up, but in many neighborhoods, not only have prices not increased but have actually dropped significantly compared to last year. You say they’ve dropped, yet in many areas, prices have increased by one or two million more compared to last year. It’s so surreal, it’s truly baffling.”

A real estate agent in Shanghai named “Senior Brother’s House Viewing Notes” advised consumers, “If it’s not a necessity, don’t buy a house.”

“Fengxian Sister on Real Estate” stated that some online sales data are false, and advised, “Don’t rush to buy a house now; prices will continue to decline. In two years, it will reach around 10,000 to 12,000 yuan per square meter, which will be the most suitable time to buy. Interest rates will also automatically decrease, and even no interest will be charged in the future. It means that in the future, houses will be worthless, and no one will want them; they will be given to you, and you may not even be able to take them.”

One netizen kindly reminded “Sister Feng,” “Be careful with your speech; you might be penalized for criticizing the housing market now.”

On March 25th, the Shanghai Cyberspace Administration issued a notice stating that 98 self-media accounts were “banned” for posting information such as “Shanghai central house prices are about to collapse” and “Countdown to the collapse of the Shanghai real estate market.”

Some netizens mocked, saying that “it seems (the Shanghai authorities) are really anxious.”