The Taiwan Lantern Festival opened today (12th) and will run until the 23rd. The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan stated that there will be a high chance of rain across Taiwan on Lantern Festival, especially from tonight to the early hours of the 13th. Meteorological experts mentioned that Taiwan is likely to encounter rain on Lantern Festival, as a frontal system carrying moisture passes through the country on the 12th.
On the 11th, the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan posted on Facebook that with the approach of the frontal system and the continuous influence of the southern cloud system, rainfall will gradually become more significant throughout Taiwan. The sound of rain will accompany everyone through the Lantern Festival night full of lights and shadows. Various regions of Taiwan are prone to showers during Lantern Festival, with rainfall probabilities ranging between 70-90%. Keelung’s northern coast, eastern regions, central and southern mountainous areas should be cautious of locally heavy rain, while other areas may also experience the possibility of localized heavy rain. People going out should carry umbrellas and dress warmly.
Associate Professor Wu Derong of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan pointed out in a column for the Meteorological Applications Promotion Foundation that the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model simulation as of 8 pm on the 11th shows that on Lantern Festival day, the moisture from the “South China Sea disturbance” will move northward, the rainfall range will expand from south to north gradually covering the whole of Taiwan. Therefore, various Lantern Festival activities should be prepared for rain; although there is no cold air, daytime temperatures will slightly decrease due to cloudy and rainy conditions. Temperature ranges are expected to be 14-24 degrees Celsius in the north, 14-23 degrees Celsius in the central region, 15-25 degrees Celsius in the south, and 16-24 degrees Celsius in the east.
Wu Derong further stated that the latest European model simulation indicates that on the 13th, the frontal system carrying the moisture from the “South China Sea disturbance” moving northward will bring widespread and significant rainfall. Following the frontal passage, a weak cold air mass belonging to the “northeasterly monsoon level” will cause a noticeable temperature drop, especially in northern Taiwan, where cooler weather should be expected.
According to Wu Derong, the latest model simulations from various countries suggest that on the 14th, influenced by the northeasterly monsoon, northern Taiwan will be cooler, and the moisture from the “South China Sea disturbance” moving northward will decrease, leading to occasional brief showers in various areas. As the northeasterly monsoon weakens on the 15th, there will be a temporary break with rising temperatures; in the evening, another frontal system will pass over the northern sea areas, causing the northeasterly monsoon to move southward, bringing occasional rain to the north and east.
He added that on the 16th, the northeasterly monsoon will turn drier with mostly clear skies in the western part and occasional scattered showers in the eastern part, resulting in a temperature drop. On the 17th, stable and sunny conditions are expected across all regions, with low morning and evening temperatures and significant day-to-night temperature differences. Due to the rapid changes in weather systems towards the end of the period, close monitoring of model adjustments is necessary.