Premier Li Keqiang Heads Alumni Group of the Organization Department, Experts: Major Developments Expected at the Fourth Plenary Session

In a rare move within the Chinese Communist Party leadership, two members of the Politburo have exchanged positions: former United Front Work Department Minister Shi Taifeng now heads the Organizational Department of the CPC Central Committee, while former Organizational Department Minister Li Ganjie has taken over the United Front Work Department. This uncommon reshuffle has sparked various speculations and interpretations among observers. Some analysts suggest that this adjustment may not necessarily reflect the intentions of Xi Jinping himself. Due to Shi Taifeng’s close relationship with Hu Jintao and being an alumna of Li Keqiang, his appointment to the Organizational Department may indicate a weakening of Xi Jinping’s power.

April 2nd, official Chinese Communist Party news revealed the swap of positions between Shi Taifeng and Li Ganjie, with Shi Taifeng becoming the Minister of the Organizational Department of the CPC Central Committee and Li Ganjie assuming the role of Minister of the United Front Work Department. This reshuffle took place following a Politburo meeting held on March 31st.

The exchange of positions among Politburo members is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. Official media has not provided any explanations for this move, leading to diverse interpretations from external observers.

Su Ziyun, Director of the Strategic and Resource Institute of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, suggested to Dajiyuan that the change in leadership in the United Front Work Department may have indirect ties to setbacks faced by the Chinese Communist Party in its united front work in Taiwan. With the growing momentum of movements against pro-Communist forces in Taiwan, public sentiment is increasingly turning against pro-Communist influences, leaving some previously outspoken pro-Communist individuals feeling disheartened. Statements made by some mainland Chinese influencers’ spouses regarding the CCP have shifted from what was once considered “high-level black content” to “low-level red content,” reflecting a significant negative impact on the red forces. “In this context, the change in leadership within the United Front Work Department is a response to the recent internal polls in Taiwan showing a 60% opposition to Communist red forces.”

Researcher Shen Mingshi of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Studies believes that the swapping of positions between Shi Taifeng and Li Ganjie, with the Organizational Department being more crucial, indicates that the Minister of this department might possibly move on to become a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. Conversely, the Minister of the United Front Work Department typically does not progress to become a member of the Standing Committee, so this reshuffle may not be directly related to the Chinese Communist Party’s Taiwan policy but rather a response to internal issues within the Party.

At 60 years old, Li Ganjie, a native of Hunan province and a graduate of Tsinghua University, has a background in nuclear expertise. He has served in various positions, including Deputy Minister and Director of the National Nuclear Safety Administration at the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection. In 2016, he was appointed Deputy Secretary of the Hebei Provincial Party Committee and later became Minister of the Environmental Protection Department of the CCP, later restructured as Minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. He then moved to Shandong as the Party Secretary and Governor, and entered the Politburo during the 20th National Congress, succeeding Chen Xi as the Minister of the Organizational Department.

According to Shen Mingshi, Li Ganjie was also a protege promoted by Xi Jinping. Being the Minister of the Organizational Department, Li Ganjie would have been responsible for the personnel arrangements crucial to the 21st National Congress. His replacement by Shi Taifeng indicates a lack of trust or a possible sidelining of Xi Jinping’s authority, perhaps even implying Xi’s potential removal during the 21st National Congress, with the behind-the-scenes manipulation possibly being orchestrated by senior CCP elders designating Shi Taifeng to lead the personnel restructuring for the 21st National Congress.

If this is the case, Shen Mingshi believes Xi Jinping’s chances of being re-elected during the 21st National Congress will diminish rapidly.

Independent commentator Cai Shunkun told Dajiyuan that although Li Ganjie is also a Tsinghua University graduate, he lacks direct connections with Chen Xi and Xi Jinping, leading to Xi’s feelings of insecurity. Xi is reluctant to entrust Li Ganjie with the role of Party School head, so Chen Xi is overseeing Li Ganjie’s work at the Organizational Department behind the scenes. The sudden mid-term change indicates dissatisfaction with Li Ganjie’s organizational work over the past few years.

Shi Taifeng and the late former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang were classmates at Peking University’s Law School. Shi Taifeng had nearly 20 years of experience at the Central Party School, serving as Vice President for nine years under three presidents, Hu Jintao, Zeng Qinghung, and Xi Jinping. In March 2016, after stepping down, Hu Jintao visited his ancestral home in Taizhou, Jiangsu, where the then-Jiangsu Provincial Secretary Shi Taifeng paid a visit to the Hu family and had tea with them in their courtyard.

From January 2016 to April 2017, Shi Taifeng served as the Deputy Secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee and the provincial Governor. The current Premier Li Keqiang served as the Secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee from June 2016 to October 2017. The two worked together for nearly a year.

Cai Shunkun stated that after Shi Taifeng became the Secretary of Inner Mongolia, he initiated a 20-year anti-corruption campaign, removing all personnel associated with his predecessor, Hu Chunhua. His forceful promotion of Chinese language education in Inner Mongolia, together with other methods, earned the approval of Xi Jinping.

Independent analyst Xiangyang stated that if Li Keqiang were aware from the beyond, he would never have imagined his old classmate Shi Taifeng assuming control of the Organizational Department. The former head of the Organizational Department, Li Ganjie, recommended to Xi by Chen Xi, a Tsinghua confidant, being replaced now only signifies Li Ganjie’s unsuitability for the role. As the youngest among the Politburo members, it appears that Li Ganjie has lost hope of becoming a Standing Committee member in 2027 with his move to the United Front Work Department, which is considered a nominal position, aligning with the setup for the 21st National Congress dominated by Li Keqiang.

Commentator Zhong Yuan expressed in Dajiyuan that the recent inspection of the united front system coinciding with Shi Taifeng stepping down as the United Front Work Department Minister implies dissatisfaction with his performance. Li Ganjie, who was supposed to concurrently serve as the Deputy Leader of the Central Inspection Work Leadership Group, can no longer hold that position after being appointed as the Minister of the United Front Work Department, leading to a weakening of his authority. The primary driver behind this unusual decision may come from outside the Politburo, possibly from rumored figures like Hu or Wen, amidst reports of senior CPC elders steering the current political situation.

Commentator Zhou Xiaohui believes that amidst heightened rumors of senior CPC elders manipulating the current political landscape, Shi Taifeng’s alignment with Hu Jintao could be a strategic move. If the senior CPC elders aim to control political affairs, they not only need military power but also control over public opinion and personnel decisions.