Meteorologists in the United States are warning that the coldest Arctic air of the season is on its way, marking a chilling exclamation point on a winter characterized by frequent polar vortex visits. This extreme cold is expected to blanket the entire United States in the coming week, potentially bringing with it blizzards, widespread snowfall, and flooding.
According to several meteorological experts speaking to the Associated Press, various weather factors in the Arctic are converging to drive frigid air southward, impacting not only the United States but also extending to Europe.
Zack Taylor, a meteorologist at the National Weather Prediction Center (WPC), stated that the core of this cold wave will be centered over Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa, with temperatures potentially plummeting 35 degrees below average for this time of year.
Private meteorologist and former NOAA Chief Scientist Ryan Maue noted, “All weather conditions are working together, with all the winds in the atmosphere dragging Arctic cold air from northern Canada down to the United States.” He added, “This is the coldest period of the year, and all signs indicate it will be an extremely cold winter blast.”
According to Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), this will be the tenth occurrence this season of a polar vortex shift south, releasing Arctic cold air into the United States. Normally, such events happen only two to three times in a winter, making this frequency unusually high.
The abnormal climate patterns this winter, such as record-breaking snowfall in New Orleans and droughts and devastating wildfires in Southern California, indicate that this is not a typical winter season.
The latest blast of extreme cold weather is expected to initially impact the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains on Saturday (February 15th) and persist over the following week. Meteorologists highlight that the coldest air from this cold wave will mostly concentrate east of the Rockies, with only parts of the western United States and central/southern Florida being spared.
Maue’s calculations suggest that by Tuesday (February 18th), the average low temperature across the contiguous U.S. will drop to 16.6 degrees Fahrenheit (-8.6 degrees Celsius), further decreasing to 14 degrees Fahrenheit (-10 degrees Celsius) on Wednesday (February 19th).
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), 89% of the U.S. is forecasted to experience temperatures below freezing next week, with 27% of the region expected to dip below zero degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius), including Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Experts anticipate that strong winds will make the cold even more piercing. The NWS predicts that wind chills of 20 degrees Fahrenheit (-6.7 degrees Celsius) or below will affect parts or all regions of every state in the U.S., except for Hawaii, California, and Florida.
Taylor mentioned that this prolonged period of extreme cold could bring with it blizzards, widespread snow, and even flooding, with the possibility of forming a Nor’easter, though the exact impacts remain to be confirmed.
This type of polar vortex event differs from other Arctic outbreaks. Cohen explained that these stretching events occur at lower atmospheric levels, distinct from sudden warming and weakening of the polar vortex that releases cold air southward. These “stretching” polar vortex events maintain strength but undergo deformation, extending the cold surge southward.
“Stretching events like these are typically slightly milder compared to large-scale cold air outbreaks crossing southward but are more likely to impact the U.S. rather than Europe,” Cohen stated.
NOAA climate prediction center polar vortex expert Laura Ciasto explained that meteorologists will further study why these stretching polar vortex events are occurring so frequently this year, attributing it possibly to natural variability.
“While the current situation is noteworthy, it is not unprecedented,” noted Martin Stendel, a scientist at Denmark’s National Center for Climate Research.
Another factor possibly contributing to the frequent stretching of the polar vortex is a large-scale high-pressure system over Greenland. This system is shifting westward, altering the jet stream path and accelerating the southward movement and lingering of Arctic cold air.
Meteorologists are uncertain about when this extreme cold snap will end, with Maue remarking that “the frequency and intensity of the polar vortex this winter have surpassed many historical meteorological records.”