The Pentagon released the 2024 annual assessment of Chinese Communist military power on Wednesday, pointing out the impact of the anti-corruption campaign on the development of the Chinese military. The report singled out the downfall of several high-ranking Chinese military officials, including Li Shangfu and Li Yuchao, due to corruption issues.
Since last year, the Chinese military has undergone a comprehensive anti-corruption purge. According to the Pentagon report, between July and December 2023, at least 15 senior military officers and officials from the national defense industry were dismissed. Many of the investigated or ousted officials were responsible for overseeing equipment development projects related to the modernization of the Chinese land-based nuclear and conventional missile systems.
The report highlighted the cases of several fallen Chinese military officers, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was dismissed in late October last year. In July, several officials from the Chinese Rocket Force were removed from their positions, including General Li Yuchao and Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo, as well as several deputy commanders.
At least five officials from the Chinese defense industry, including the head of China’s largest missile manufacturer, have been detained for investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. In December last year, nine officials (mainly from the Rocket Force, the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission, and the defense industry) were disqualified as National People’s Congress deputies due to corruption-related issues.
The Pentagon’s report mentioned that in late July 2023, the Chinese military unusually announced an extensive investigation into its weapons procurement plans since 2017, indicating greater concerns about the modernization efforts of the Chinese military.
“The scale of corruption cases involving various branches of the Chinese military may have shaken Beijing’s confidence in senior military officials,” the report stated.
“In 2023, the Chinese military faced a new wave of corruption-related investigations and the dismissal of senior leaders, which may have disrupted China’s progress towards its established 2027 modernization goals,” the Pentagon report added.
In July 2023, the Chinese Navy appointed Vice Admiral Wang Houbin as the Commander of the Rocket Force and Air Force officer Xu Xisheng as the Political Commissar of the Rocket Force. The Pentagon noted that appointing external candidates to lead the Rocket Force could indicate Xi Jinping’s lack of trust in senior Rocket Force leaders.
A senior U.S. defense official briefed reporters, stating that corruption issues have indeed affected the Chinese military, as replacing senior officials could be disruptive, and efforts to uncover corruption could slow down military projects, including those in the defense industry.
“Once they uncover corrupt behavior in a certain area or involving a senior official, there seems to be an inevitable spiral effect that could potentially entangle more officials,” the U.S. Defense Department official said.
The anti-corruption purge of senior Rocket Force officials has drawn significant attention as the force is responsible for China’s most advanced conventional and nuclear missiles.
Officials from the Pentagon indicated that the frequent turnover of senior Chinese military personnel is impacting the military’s goal of modernization by 2027. Significant personnel changes in projects such as major construction or within the defense industry could potentially slow down project progress.
“I believe they (the Chinese) have realized that corruption poses a significant risk to the political reliability and ultimate combat capability of the military, so I expect them to continue their anti-corruption campaign,” a Pentagon official commented.
The fate of Dong Jun, the successor to Li Shangfu as the Chinese Defense Minister, remains unclear at the moment, with some U.S. officials recently hinting at a corruption investigation against him. However, the Chinese authorities have refuted these claims. At the end of last month, the Chinese Defense Ministry confirmed that Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission, had been suspended pending investigation.
The Pentagon’s report estimated that China possesses around 600 usable nuclear warheads, an increase of approximately 100 warheads since the 2023 Chinese military power report. The report also projected that China will have over 1,000 usable nuclear warheads by 2030.
The Pentagon estimated that China’s military spending in 2024 would range between $330 billion and $450 billion. U.S. officials expressed that due to China’s economic struggles, the Chinese government might slow down future increases in defense budgets.