Pentagon Document to Prioritize Blocking Chinese Communist Party’s Invasion of Taiwan, Experts Interpret

Recently, a confidential memo from inside the Pentagon has been exposed by American media, revealing a shift in the U.S. military framework towards the Indo-Pacific region. The document highlights a strategic repositioning to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan and strengthen national defense as top priorities. Experts believe this unprecedented treatment towards Taiwan signals that the U.S. is preparing for the worst-case scenario in the Taiwan Strait.

According to reports by The Washington Post, the confidential memo titled “Interim National Defense Strategy Guidance” outlines the Defense Secretary Hagess’ repositioning of the U.S. military framework to the Indo-Pacific region, with deterring Chinese invasion of Taiwan and enhancing homeland defense as primary goals.

The unique aspect of the memo signed by Hagess is its description of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as the “sole dynamic scenario that must be prioritized over other potential threats.” The document outlines strategies to execute President Trump’s vision, preparing to win in a potential war with China and protect U.S. interests in areas like Greenland and the Panama Canal, deemed vulnerable.

The memo also reveals a focus on military readiness against conflicts with China, leaving threats from Russia primarily to be addressed by European allies. This aligns with Hagess’ earlier statements during his visits to Europe as Defense Secretary.

Dr. Chung Chih-tung, Assistant Research Fellow at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, emphasized the significance of the memo in global military deployment, highlighting Taiwan’s pivotal role in U.S. efforts against China. Viewing Taiwan as the foremost priority in global strategic deployment represents an unprecedented treatment since the Kuomintang’s retreat to Taiwan in late 1949. Even during the signing of the 1954 Taiwan Relations Act, Taiwan did not hold such a paramount role in U.S. defense planning.

Dr. Chung points out that this underscores a shift in the U.S. global strategy from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, recognizing China as the primary threat in the region and reflecting growing concerns for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

The release timing and method of the memo, as Dr. Chung notes, are noteworthy. It was disseminated as an exclusive news report, coinciding with the Defense Secretary’s visit to the Indo-Pacific, suggesting a deliberate warning from the U.S. to China rather than mere coincidence.

Dr. Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, notes that the memo’s exposure confirms the U.S. identifying China as its top hypothetical adversary. However, the strategies laid out in the report, while emphasizing the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, largely follow existing trends, with a clear focus on countering China’s influence and expansion.

The Pentagon’s new guidelines on “denial defense” for Taiwan entail increased military deployments through submarines, bombers, unmanned vessels, and special forces from the Army and Marine Corps, emphasizing precision strikes on fortified and underground targets. The plan also calls for enhancing defenses at U.S. military bases in the Indo-Pacific, establishing pre-positioned stockpiles, and improving logistics.

While underscoring deterrence against Chinese aggression, the memo also urges Taiwan to “significantly increase” defense spending. President Lai Ching-te has expressed plans to allocate a defense special budget of up to 3% of Taiwan’s GDP.

Dr. Chung highlights that U.S. military displays of readiness indicate preparations for worst-case scenarios. According to The Washington Post’s report on the memo, the “denial defense” guidelines aim to enhance capabilities for precise strikes on underground and fortified targets. In the event of Chinese military action against Taiwan, the U.S. may target objectives within China.

Dr. Shen points out that the U.S. is actively countering China’s nuclear expansion to establish nuclear deterrence and bolstering naval capabilities to heighten maritime threats, deploying sixth-generation fighter jets. The U.S. aims not for conflict in the Indo-Pacific but to deter China through military strength and collaboration with democratic allies, necessitating preparedness for worst-case scenarios.

In light of increasing Chinese threats, military cooperation between the U.S. and Taiwan is expected to grow. Recent years have seen closer cooperation, exemplified by Taiwanese Army units receiving training in the U.S. such as the 542nd and 333rd Brigades.

The U.S. has traditionally maintained strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, with President Trump avoiding direct responses to questions on U.S. actions to prevent Chinese control over Taiwan. While the Trump administration emphasizes maintaining peace through strength, strategic partnerships with allies, particularly Japan, aid in deterring Chinese aggression.

Dr. Chung notes that the Trump administration’s emphasis on strategic ambiguity differs from the Biden administration’s clear commitments to assist Taiwan militarily. By leveraging both military capabilities and alliances, the U.S. aims to deter Chinese expansion and may extend alliances to European partners to deter Chinese military actions against Taiwan.

Dr. Shen acknowledges the Biden administration’s clearer strategic direction compared to the past but notes that the specifics of assisting Taiwan remain ambiguous to maintain strategic flexibility. While strategies are clearer, operational details regarding aiding Taiwan remain vague to retain room for maneuverability, mirroring the Trump administration’s approach.

Hong Zijie, Deputy Researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Studies Center for Chinese Military and Operational Concepts, suggests that the recently revealed memo, observed from news descriptions, reflects heightened U.S. concerns over the “Chinese threat,” indicating an increased probability of Chinese aggression in the future. However, he cautions against conflating this with strategic ambiguity or clarity.

“The U.S. Department of Defense forecasting future scenarios of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan and proposing corresponding response measures is part of its mandate, and there is not a single approach to these contingencies,” emphasizes Hong. The preparedness from a worst-case scenario perspective is vital, with strategic ambiguity or clarity being political decisions.

Concerns of skepticism towards U.S. intentions within Taiwan have prompted the memo’s release to counter such sentiments domestically and internationally. The actions taken by the Trump administration demonstrate a stronger stance against China, further highlighting Taiwan’s defense and military cooperation with the U.S.

Dr. Shen notes that the U.S. strategic stance against China also relates to internal challenges within the Chinese regime.

“There are numerous internal issues within the Chinese Communist Party, and the U.S. can capitalize on this internal turmoil to exert pressure. By pressuring China through tariffs and technological sanctions, if China’s economy continues to deteriorate, they won’t have the economic capacity to wage war externally,” says Dr. Shen.