【Epoch Times News December 22, 2024】The annual Chinese Military Power Report for the year 2024 released by the U.S. Department of Defense on December 18th mentioned that the Chinese military now possesses a world-leading hypersonic missile arsenal, with the quantity and quality of its nuclear weapons stockpile on the rise, reaching a “nuclear triad” striking capability. The report highlighted that the Communist Party of China’s (CCP) powerful military poses a primary challenge to the United States. On the other hand, the Chinese military is plagued by internal corruption, with commanders lacking real combat experience, potentially leading to unreliability, challenges in meeting operational requirements, and even failures to reach the battlefield.
The full title of the report is “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” commonly known as the “China Military Power Report” (CMPR), spanning 182 pages. This report is submitted annually by the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) to Congress, aimed at providing lawmakers with comprehensive insights into the capabilities, strategies, and objectives of the CCP regime and its military.
The report further elaborated on why the 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy identified communist China and its increasingly powerful military as the primary challenge to the United States.
The CCP has publicly set goals for the modernization of its military: achieving a milestone in military capability modernization by 2027, completing all military modernization constructions by 2035, and aiming to become a “world-class military” by 2049.
The CMPR report from the Pentagon pointed out that the milestone targets set by the Chinese military for 2027 may establish this force as a reliable military tool for the CCP in its attempt to militarily unify Taiwan.
Simultaneously, the CCP regime is accumulating and expanding its “comprehensive national power” (CNP) through political, social, economic, technological, and military developments, with the goal of achieving the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049.
The Pentagon’s report mentioned that for Beijing, “comprehensive national power” represents an overall strength assessment standard in various fields within the international system, especially in confrontations on the battlefield based on systemic confrontations of comprehensive strengths among countries. The CCP regime seeks to modify the international order with its increasingly stronger “comprehensive national power” to ensure a favorable international environment for the authority and interests of the CCP governance system.
A key part of China’s defense policy is its anti-interference policy, aimed at limiting the legitimate presence of the United States in the East and South China Seas, and restricting U.S. access to the broader Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, China is further enhancing its influence in the Pacific and other regions.
The report mentioned that since the end of 2023, although there has been a decrease in provocative and dangerous intercepts of U.S. aircraft by the Chinese military compared to the previous two years, they have continued unsafe exercises near U.S. allied forces in the Indo-Pacific region.
Additionally, in 2023, the Chinese military had been resistant to military communications with the U.S., rejecting bilateral contacts and refusing communication requests from the U.S. Department of Defense. Only after a meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping in November 2023 did China agree to resume various levels of military exchanges with the U.S. The U.S. Department of Defense stated its commitment to maintaining open communication channels with the Chinese military to ensure competition does not escalate into conflict.
The CMPR report noted that in terms of quantity, the Chinese military is sufficient to rival the U.S. military. The Chinese navy is the world’s largest, with over 370 warships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants, surpassing the U.S. Navy’s 290 vessels. Furthermore, China’s shipyards have the capacity to build various types of naval combatants, including new destroyers, cruisers, and amphibious vessels. Their third aircraft carrier, the “Fujian” is expected to be commissioned in 2025.
The Chinese Air Force is also increasing production of its fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter and constructing a new assembly plant to prepare for further production expansion. Of their 1,900 fighter jets, about 1,300 are advanced fourth-generation fighters, comparable to some of the most advanced fighters produced in the U.S. and Europe.
With a total force exceeding 3 million personnel, including 965,000 active-duty military personnel, the Chinese military exceeds the U.S. military’s total force of less than 2.9 million, with nearly 800,000 being civilian personnel.
The report detailed China’s nuclear weapons development, with the U.S. Department of Defense estimating that as of mid-2024, the Chinese military has over 600 deployable nuclear warheads, and it is projected they will possess over 1,000 warheads by 2030, aligning with previous years’ assessments.
On the day the report was released, Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia Affairs, Michael Chase, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, stated, “We discussed not just the expansion in numbers, but also the improvement in quality in our report. We are talking about the increasingly sophisticated technology and the diversification of China’s nuclear stockpile.”
Chase further noted that compared to decades ago, China’s nuclear weapons are no longer small and outdated.
Chase commented, “Over time, what we see is that they’ve expanded to what they call the ‘nuclear triad,’ so the PLA navy has ballistic missile submarines on deterrent patrol. The PLA Air Force has also reasserted its nuclear capabilities through the addition of bombers with nuclear capabilities to execute nuclear deterrence and strike missions.”
The diversity and capabilities of the Chinese military’s nuclear arsenal have also increased, such as having missiles with lower-yield nuclear warheads for precision strikes.
“This provides China with a wider array of choices for future nuclear deterrence activities… in how to conduct nuclear operations and has more rungs on the escalation ladder,” Chase added.
Chase believed that all of this ties back to China’s vast investment in nuclear expansion, military modernization, space, and counter-space capabilities.
The report mentioned that by 2023, China’s public defense budget (calculated in constant prices) would increase to $220 billion, but Beijing’s actual military expenditure could be 40% to 90% higher than its disclosed budget figure, allowing the Chinese military to focus on modernizing weapons and equipment, recruiting and retaining professional staff, and enhancing the military’s strategic capabilities.
“This reflects investments in a range of military capabilities, with a focus on contingencies around Taiwan, potential military contingency in the East or South China Sea—military action closer to the Chinese border. It also reflects investments in military projection capabilities, such as what we talk about in the report with respect to the PLA Navy trying to enhance its ability to operate beyond the first island chain,” Chase said.
The “first island chain” includes a series of islands and extensive waters North starting from the Japanese archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, extending through Taiwan, and to the Philippines and Sulawesi. This serves as the maritime barrier for the U.S. to contain Chinese military expansion.
The CMPR report pointed out that over the past 20 years, the Chinese military has made strides in the development of conventional and nuclear hypersonic missile technology. Now, they have a world-leading hypersonic missile arsenal.
The report stated that new generation intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) developed by China, if put into service, would enable them to “strike targets on the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, and Alaska.”
In 2023, Communist China increased diplomatic, political, and military pressure on Taiwan. Throughout the year, China continued to erode longstanding norms around Taiwan and its surrounding areas by maintaining a naval presence near Taiwan, increasing the number of crossings over the median line in the Taiwan Strait and entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, and conducting large-scale military exercises near Taiwan.
In April 2023, in response to then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit and visit to the U.S., the Chinese military conducted a total of a six-day two-phase land-sea-air encirclement military exercise around Taiwan and even deployed an aircraft carrier formation.
The report stated, “During this year, the PLA has taken more provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific region, accelerating efforts to improve military capabilities and operational concepts to enhance China’s ability to fight and win against a ‘strong enemy,’ respond to third party intervention in conflicts around China, and project power globally.”
However, the U.S. Department of Defense also believes that the likelihood of a military invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese military is neither imminent nor inevitable, citing the strong deterrence capabilities of the U.S. and the fact that the Chinese military still lacks the actual strength for a military attack on Taiwan.
Another high-ranking official from the Department of Defense, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Ely Ratner, who also attended the December 18 CSIS event, stated, “They (the Chinese military) might be rapidly advancing in military modernization, but find themselves still distant in addressing some combat problems they are trying to solve.”
Ratner further explained, “Their specific objective is to prepare and have the confidence to conduct a short, swift invasion of Taiwan at an acceptable cost. However, they have not yet reached this goal, and they are striving towards it.”
“This is actually the essence of a ‘pacing challenge’ and deterrence. This is also one of the reasons we have confidence that we believe that an invasion (of Taiwan) is neither imminent nor inevitable. We believe deterrence exists and is powerful,” Ratner added.
The annual report from the U.S. Department of Defense also noted that in 2023, China continued to strongly support Russia in its war against Ukraine, including conducting joint military exercises, assisting Russia in managing economic challenges from international sanctions, and selling dual-use military products to supply the Russian military’s consumption on the battlefield. In addition, China is leveraging the experiences and lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war to adjust its strategic and coercive activities against Taiwan.
Chase stated, “We continue to see them conducting exercises at sea… participating in other exercises with Russia, and conducting regular joint bomber patrols. Over time, they will add some new elements. But most of the time, I think the PRC is also trying to maximize the political signaling value, showing more and deeper military cooperation.”
Chase believed that as Russia increasingly relies on China, China will also benefit more from Russia.
He said, “The PRC… probably wants to exert more influence and get more cooperation from Russia in areas where Russia has historically been unwilling. The Arctic is one example where this could happen.”
Ratner pointed out that in addition to deepening ties with Russia, China is also connected to the regimes of North Korea and Iran.
He believed that China’s support for Russia’s presence on the Ukrainian battlefield is merely one way of disrupting stability driven by their anti-Western, anti-U.S. orientation, not only in Europe but also in various other regions worldwide.
Ratner noted that China is highly active in the Middle East, continuing to support Iran and its proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels.
He said, “The Houthis have established a supply chain of drones and missiles in China which they use to attack international shipping. These are not one-off transactions. It’s systematic in terms of how the Houthis are acquiring the capabilities they need.”
He also expressed that there exists a “transaction” between the Houthis and China—meaning, if the Houthis do not attack Chinese shipping, Beijing will continue to provide diplomatic and political support to the Houthis.
“This is just a series of destabilizing activities,” Ratner said, “I think the part in which China supports Russia is important, but we should not overlook the part in the Middle East (where China is active).”
This year’s CMPR report added new content introducing the phenomenon of corruption within the Chinese military, including the increase in internal corruption within the military, how the CCP is combating corruption within the military, and how this corruption could potentially disrupt China’s military ambitions.
Assistant Secretary of Defense Ratner at the CSIS stated, “I think the intensity of the anti-corruption campaign reflects serious concerns about the severe problems in this area. People have serious questions about the overall impact of corruption on the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), the impact of corruption on the entire system, and what this means.”
The report indicated that corruption issues involve various departments of the Chinese military, with Xi Jinping since taking office in 2012, making eradicating military corruption a focal point of his tenure.
Last year, corruption investigations led to the dismissal of at least 15 senior military generals, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu.
Assistant Secretary of Defense Chase commented, “I think when you look at the intensity with which top Chinese leaders describe the anti-corruption campaign and explain how important it is, you then understand well how they view this anti-corruption campaign.”
According to Chase, based on who has been dismissed and from which military department, it can be seen that this corruption may be related to significant military construction projects, research and development, and procurement projects.
He said, “Therefore, this may have another impact on the PLA’s ability to achieve the military strength development milestones that Xi Jinping has set for it. This will certainly shake the leadership’s confidence in the political reliability of the PLA and shake the leadership’s confidence in the overall capacity of the PLA to complete assignments.”
The report also specifically mentioned a key flaw of the Chinese military—commander readiness and capability. The Chinese military itself has what is known as the “Five Incapables,” describing areas where Chinese military officers need improvement, including an inability to assess situations, understand senior intent, make operational decisions, deploy troops, and handle emergencies.
Chase commented, “I think from a Chinese perspective, part of the reason is that they lack combat experience. From the Chinese perspective, this means that their experience comes from overseas operations, from exercises conducted domestically, rather than from any real-world combat experience.”
This implies that the Chinese military may struggle to meet operational requirements.
One conclusion drawn from the report is that the Chinese military may fail to reach the operational positions required, including urban warfare and providing long-range logistics.