The upcoming US election day on Tuesday, November 5th, has drawn significant attention regarding when the results will be announced. It remains unclear whether the next president will be elected that evening, as officials in swing states have warned that the final tally may take time.
David Scott, a senior editor overseeing the election night team at the Associated Press (AP), emphasized that the AP will not declare any candidate’s victory until they are completely confident in the results. He stated to National Public Radio (NPR) that the availability of complete vote counts varies by state. In cases where all votes must be fully counted this year, especially in tight races, the official certification by election authorities may be necessary before a winner is announced.
Chris Mann, the director of research at the Election Innovation and Research Center, underscored the challenges in media reporting due to the intense competition in this year’s elections. The uncertainty arises from the slim margins revealed in polling data, with both candidates showing comparable strengths.
The Competitive Electoral Integrity Project’s managing director, Rachael Dean Wilson, mentioned that officials from seven swing states are preparing to issue statements on final vote counts to assist voters in determining the outcome before election day.
Georgia may be the first battleground state to announce results. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated that around 70%-75% of votes will be tallied on Tuesday, with the remaining counting to be completed over the weekend.
Michigan and Nevada, pivotal battlegrounds, have continued the modified election policies from 2020 allowing early processing of votes, particularly crucial in Nevada where the majority opt for mail-in voting.
In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson revealed that final tallies might be announced prior to the deadline of “ending the day” on Wednesday, November 6th.
Arizona and North Carolina also permit pre-election day processing of mail-in votes, although North Carolina’s process could be influenced by the impact of Hurricane “Helene.”
Therefore, if the results in the aforementioned states are closely contested, the focus may shift to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since these states do not allow pre-election day processing of mail-in votes, indicating delayed results.
Many voters turned to mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, prompting several states to enact policies allowing more mail-in voting.
Assessments from federal agencies show that in 2020, over 43% of all votes were cast via mail-in ballots, significantly higher than the one-quarter in 2016 and 2018.
While state laws vary, a considerable amount of time is needed to handle the large number of mail-in votes, increasing possibilities for election-related conspiracy theories to circulate, according to legal experts.
In this election cycle, several states have altered pre-election day vote processing policies to streamline the process and reduce potential delays as seen in 2020.
Experts predict that while the total number of mail-in ballots in 2024 might be less compared to 2020, the acceptance of this method among Republicans could influence the final count.
Reports indicate that nearly all states in 2024 allow pre-election day processing of mail-in envelopes for activities like verifying signatures, sorting envelopes, rejecting incomplete ballots, and preparing for machine scanning.
Although the time to determine the next president in 2024 may not be as prolonged as in 2020, a significant delay similar to the last election is unlikely, according to Quinn Yeargain, an associate professor at Michigan State University Law College.
The 2020 election marked one of the longest waits for election results in U.S. history, primarily due to the unprecedented surge in mail-in voting, while some crucial states were not prepared to handle the influx promptly.
Seat noted that the closer the race, the longer it might take to produce results, potentially heightening public anxiety. He explained how significant delays or legal interventions could deepen frustrations among nearly half of the electorate, regardless of the ultimate winner.
The outcome of the election is expected to be tight, and the timing of results could vary based on the margin of victory and when key states release their counts. It remains a waiting game for the public, demanding patience as the election process unfolds.