After Trump’s victory, Beijing is feeling increasingly anxious. Not only because the potential threat of tariffs could bring more pain to the weakened Chinese economy, but also due to the larger concern that the United States is seeking a pro-Russia, anti-China strategic approach that could distance Moscow from Beijing.
According to a column by a senior reporter Wei Lingling in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, based on previous interviews with individuals close to the Chinese Communist Party leadership, Party leader Xi Jinping is worried that Trump’s election as president will disrupt his “brotherly bond” with Putin. Putin is a strategic partner that Beijing is trying to court amid the U.S.-China confrontation.
In her latest column, Wei Lingling stated that losing Russia could deal a huge strategic blow to Xi Jinping’s security-focused agenda, implying that he would lose a powerful partner in challenging Western countries.
During his first term in office, Trump made several attempts to improve U.S.-Russia relations. With Biden taking office and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the top leaders of the U.S. and Russia have not held talks, and the Kremlin has increasingly relied on Beijing to help Russia bypass Western sanctions and sustain the conflict.
Now, with Trump poised to return to the White House with an overwhelming election victory, his Republican party is likely to control both houses of Congress.
Trump has indicated that he plans to negotiate with Putin to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
He also said that if elected, he would “break up” the China-Russia alliance. In late October, during a campaign event, he publicly stated that the alliance between China and Russia was “dangerous.” He added that he was confident he could achieve the goal of “breaking up” the China-Russia alliance.
“Even these signals alone are enough to keep Xi’s leadership awake at night,” Wei Lingling wrote. “Facilitating an end to the conflict might pave the way for easing tensions between Washington and Moscow, potentially putting Beijing in a difficult position.”
Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, in a past interview with The Wall Street Journal, said, “If the issue of the conflict is resolved, (the White House) can try to find a way to explain to Russia that being so close to a country that believes Russia owns tens of millions of acres of land is not in their best interest.”
In the 1960s, there was a territorial dispute between China and the former Soviet Union, leading to military confrontations between the two.
Shortly after Trump took office as U.S. president in early 2017, just before the trade war began, Xi Jinping made a strategic decision to ally with Moscow.
“Informed sources told me that a report submitted by Tsinghua University, Xi Jinping’s alma mater, concluded that the Russian economy has no future, which means that establishing a closer relationship with Russia would be of little benefit to China,” Wei Lingling revealed. “Xi Jinping annotated in the blank space of the report, ‘Nonsense’.”
Against the backdrop of Trump’s trade war with China, Beijing has drawn closer to Russia. The sanctions on Russia under the Biden administration have accelerated the political and economic ties between China and Russia.
With Biden out of the race and Vice President Harris taking over the campaign, some individuals in the Beijing and U.S. business and academic circles hope that she could soften U.S. policy towards China, helping to reshape bilateral relations between the U.S. and China.
Wei Lingling said, with the defeat of the Democrats, Beijing may now be facing its worst nightmare.