According to the U.S. Census Bureau data, the population of New York City has decreased during the pandemic, but the housing vacancy rate has not increased but instead decreased. Experts believe that besides a slight rebound in the population over the past two years, there may have been significant changes in the city’s population composition.
Census data shows that from April 2020 to July 2023, New York City lost over 500,000 people. During this period, the number of school-age children in the city decreased by about 6.48%, and the number of children under 4 years old decreased by 15.28%. However, according to the latest housing and vacancy survey, in 2023, the housing vacancy rate in New York City was 1.4%, not only lower than the 4.5% vacancy rate during the pandemic in 2021 but also lower than the 3.63% vacancy rate before the pandemic in 2017. With the outflow of the city’s population, why is the housing vacancy rate not increasing but decreasing?
NY1 News reported that Andy Beveridge, the CEO of population statistics company Social Explorer, mentioned that the population of New York City was indeed affected by the pandemic, but perhaps not as much as initially estimated, and the population has shown some rebound in the past two years. As for the decrease in the housing vacancy rate, his explanation is that the number of residents per apartment has decreased. Data shows that from 2020 to 2022, the average household size has decreased by 5.49%.
According to a study by venture capital firm SignalFire in the spring of this year, New York City is the city with the largest influx of people moving for tech jobs, with a nearly 4% net increase in the tech population from 2022 to 2023. Matthew Villetto, Executive Vice President of Real Estate company Douglas Elliman, pointed out that the tech talents moving into the city are primarily young singles, replacing families moving out of the city center. Therefore, even though the overall population of the city has slightly decreased, the housing vacancy rate has not increased but decreased, and rental prices have not decreased but increased. Beveridge expressed his anticipation for the release of the American Community Survey next spring, which will provide a clearer understanding of individual and household population statistics, not just the net flow of population.