In recent times, Chinese diplomats, who have been active on the world diplomatic stage with a “wolf warrior” image, have unusually fallen silent, indicating an extraordinary situation within China. Currently, China is undergoing a leadership transition, and there may even be a hidden internal conflict brewing.
Under the leadership of US President Donald Trump, the United States has returned to a tough stance against China, making the current situation even more relevant.
For some time now, even before the 20th Party Congress held at the end of 2022, the decline in the power of Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been apparent. Despite Xi Jinping using this Party Congress to remove more internal opponents, this decline has not diminished.
Now, as promised by Trump before the 2024 US presidential election, he has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the United States, mainly to force China to reduce its export of fentanyl-type drugs to the US and to limit the impact of China’s industrial overcapacity.
So far, the response from the Chinese regime has been minimal; their counter-tariff measures are weak and not publicly announced. Meanwhile, China continues to engage in activities in the Indian Ocean-Pacific region, as evidenced by the recent signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with the Cook Islands. Nevertheless, there is still an air in Beijing of authorities attempting to regain control over the country. Of course, the actions of the Chinese government seem to lean towards building a consumer economy to replace the civil economy that Xi Jinping has destroyed over the past decade.
So, what hidden secrets lie behind this latest drama?
Firstly, there are indications, and many rumors, that Xi Jinping has suffered one or two strokes in the past six months or longer, severely restricting his mobility.
Secondly, especially in the past two years, despite Xi Jinping purging dissent within various departments and military structures of the Communist Party of China, he has failed to contain the constant emergence of “enemies.” This can be seen in a reality where challenges to Xi Jinping have been publicly voiced, and he lacks the capacity, resources, or allies to control these dissenting voices.
Most importantly, there is no longer a guarantee that the Chinese military remains loyal to Xi Jinping, or that the equipment and training of national armed forces can ensure readiness to address internal or external threats or attacks. Signs of division have also appeared within the national security apparatus and regular police forces, with many, like ordinary citizens, harboring discontent over issues such as poor economic management and corruption among the elite.
So, what does this widespread silence specifically indicate?
Is a transition plan being crafted without internal resistance?
Or is the internal situation too hostile and filled with enmity, making all adversaries too timid or hesitant to act decisively?
Are high-ranking Chinese officials seeking an ideal opportunity to quietly organize a transformation, possibly even creating the facade of Xi Jinping’s retirement?
Currently, there are no clear signs of who will succeed Xi Jinping. As with many changes in rulers throughout Chinese history, prematurely revealing the identity of a potential successor could pose a fatal risk for those involved. Considering the disintegration of mainland Chinese society due to economic collapse, how can a successful candidate prevent the societal collapse from erupting before it’s too late?
The decision on the leadership shuffle within the Communist Party of China has likely been made. Contrary to its usual stance, China has toned down its aggressive “wolf warrior” attitude, and this “quiet period” may be a time planned to prevent public disorder from erupting at the onset of a collapse under Xi Jinping’s era. It should be noted that the goal of creating the “Xi Jinping Thought” as a great era by the CCP is to position Xi Jinping as a crucial pillar of the People’s Republic of China, on par with the founding leader of the CCP, Mao Zedong himself.
Over the years, Mao Zedong’s ideology has largely become obsolete, and Xi Jinping, as an enthusiastic neo-Maoist, is attempting to revive a failed legacy. Currently, the various symbols of Xi Jinping’s ideology are openly disregarded, yet he faces no repercussions.
Could Xi Jinping’s last struggles include attempting another internal political coup against his numerous factions of adversaries?
Will he try risky foreign adventures, such as an attack on Taiwan, to regain his prestige both within and outside the party?
This is a possibility, however, his remaining power and followers seem insufficient to undertake such a mission, and any attempt to salvage honor at the final moment could prove fatal for the CCP itself.
Over a year ago, an article titled “China’s Xi Jinping and the Galtieri Syndrome: Indicators of an Irrational War?” warned that Xi Jinping’s personality, history of alcohol abuse, and tendency to make decisions without thorough consideration could trigger the “Galtieri Syndrome.” In 1982, Argentine dictator Leopoldo Galtieri decided to invade the Falkland Islands (known as the Malvinas Islands in Argentina) owned by the United Kingdom, as a desperate move to avoid dismissal after his leadership collapsed. For Xi Jinping, that window of opportunity may have passed; he may now be too ill, exhausted, or constrained to attempt such a sudden military action.
So, what comes next?
China may hope to announce a new round of domestic and international policies to recuperate and restore economic growth, declare a new “election” for the leadership, and provide ample reasons for Xi Jinping’s “retirement.” Given the persistent anger from within the party and the contempt for party authority that has not dissipated, this timing could come around in 2025. Additionally, Panama voluntarily decided in February of this year not to renew its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative with China, highlighting the fact that the Chinese regime has exhausted its economic power and cannot take any significant international actions in the short term.
Also in February, China signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with the small nation of the Cook Islands in Oceania. However, this is merely a sideshow and does not truly demonstrate that China still has the capacity to project power overseas.
Regionally, China’s largest trading and investment partners, especially Japan, have significantly withdrawn. Last year, China’s foreign direct investment in Japan dropped by about 99%. The Chinese authorities, notorious for manipulating nearly all data, have acknowledged this and the significant outflow of foreign capital.
All of this underestimates the current instability of China as an international actor and the unpredictability that ensues from it. However, many within the party and the Chinese military recognize that any attempt by China to use military force at this stage would be tantamount to suicide, much like Japan’s imperial gamble when it sneak-attacked the US at Pearl Harbor in December 1941, an act that ultimately backfired.
So, in considering the “post-CCP” era, where will the world go from here? Xi Jinping seems to have been buried by various forces, how much longer can he hold on?
**Note:** This rewritten article emphasizes the current state of China’s leadership and potential future scenarios. It does not represent the views of any specific author or publication.