Myanmar Earthquake Triggers Yunnan Earthquake, Experts Predicted 10 Years Ago

On March 28, the largest earthquake of the year globally occurred in Myanmar, as assessed by the United States Geological Survey, with the death toll possibly exceeding 10,000 in Myanmar alone. The following day, a 4.4 magnitude earthquake struck Qujing City in Yunnan Province, China, with experts analyzing it as possibly triggered by the earthquake in Myanmar. Associate Professor Wang Yu from the Department of Geology at National Taiwan University had predicted a strong earthquake in Myanmar ten years ago, while Indian prophet Anand had issued an earthquake warning earlier this month.

The massive earthquake struck at 12:50 on March 28 in the Sagaing Region in northwestern Myanmar, with the United States Geological Survey measuring it at a magnitude of 7.7. Approximately 12 minutes later, a 6.4 magnitude aftershock hit Myanmar.

According to the latest statistics released by the Myanmar National Management Committee’s news information group, as of the evening of March 29, the severe earthquake on the 28th had resulted in 1,644 deaths, 3,408 injuries, and 139 people missing across the country. It is anticipated that the actual number of casualties may be even higher.

The United States Geological Survey has estimated that the death toll in Myanmar alone could exceed 10,000. Experts suggest that the surface rupture scale of the earthquake in Myanmar may be the largest for a continental strike-slip earthquake, with an energy release magnitude equivalent to “about a thousand atomic bombs.”

The earthquake on the 28th in Myanmar caused significant damage locally, reaching as far as Thailand, India, Laos, Bangladesh, and China. According to Chinese media reports, several places in Yunnan Province also felt strong tremors, with 458 households and 1,705 people affected in Ruili City alone.

The China Earthquake Administration officially confirmed a 4.4 magnitude earthquake occurring at 18:50 on March 29 in Huize County, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, with a depth of 10 kilometers.

Experts from the Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau stated that the 4.4 magnitude earthquake in Huize County was a result of the seismic activity triggered by the earthquake in Myanmar in the Ludian seismic area. Additionally, experts from the Shanghai Seismological Bureau mentioned that the earthquake in Myanmar occurred in the Sagaing Fault Zone, the largest and most active fault zone in the region.

Experts from the China Earthquake Administration Center believe that the earthquake in Myanmar occurred in the Sagaing Arc region, located east of the Himalayan orogenic belt, which is one of the most seismically active regions along the Himalayan seismic belt.

In fact, Associate Professor Wang Yu from the Department of Geology at National Taiwan University had predicted the occurrence of a strong earthquake in Myanmar ten years ago.

According to reports on March 29 in Taiwan, Associate Professor Wang Yu disclosed that his doctoral thesis had chosen the Myanmar earthquake as its theme, and for more than a decade, he had spent one month each year conducting field investigations in the area. As early as 2014, the research team conducted an analysis based on historical data and satellite images. Wang Yu mentioned that based on the record of a magnitude 8 strong earthquake in central Myanmar in 1839 and the absence of major earthquake activity in the middle segment in the past two centuries, they estimated the seismic energy accumulated since 1839 and predicted a magnitude 7.7 earthquake.

Wang Yu stated that they had estimated the surface rupture extent of the fault to be 200 to 250 kilometers years ago, which closely matched the actual earthquake rupture range of about 200 kilometers this time. Based on previous research, the seismic activity cycle in the middle section of the Sagaing Fault is about 300 years, but according to data analysis updated by graduate students in 2020, the activity cycle in the area may be only about 200 years. Therefore, the occurrence of this earthquake was not unexpected for him, but he still “hoped to be wrong.”

Furthermore, Indian prophet Abhigya Anand had also warned about the possibility of significant earthquakes in several regions in March, including the Himalayan seismic belt, in a video released on March 1 this year.