Mainland China’s Spring Recruitment Market: Too Many Monks and Too Few Porridge, Are Migrant Workers Facing Their Hardest Year Yet?

After the Chinese New Year holiday is the traditional spring recruitment season in China. Companies usually adjust their operations and recruit new employees during this time, leading to a significant increase in job openings. However, amid the overall economic downturn in China, the number of job openings in Chinese companies continues to decrease in 2025, raising concerns about job prospects for mainland residents. Is 2025 the toughest year for laborers?

According to a report by the South China Morning Post, Joey Lu, a manager at a company in Shenzhen, is currently recruiting two administrative assistants. She mentioned that compared to the same period last year, she has received a lot more resumes.

“There is an increasing number of job seekers in the market, but our company and most clients tend to maintain the current workforce without expansion plans,” Lu said.

She pointed out that many companies are cutting office positions and budgets as they strive to retain customers.

A recent report by a hiring website showed that 30.85% of surveyed companies plan to increase recruitment in the first quarter of 2025, slightly lower than the 39.3% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, 19.08% of companies plan to lay off employees, showing an increase from 12.47% compared to last year.

On February 24th, Zhaopin Recruitment released the third issue of the “2025 Spring Recruitment Market Weekly Report,” which tracked data from 38 key cities, reflecting similar trends.

Data indicates that in the third week after the Chinese New Year, the recruitment positions in the entertainment/sports/leisure industry increased by 5.2% compared to the previous week, while the number of job seekers surged by 30.4%. The same trend was observed in other industries such as real estate, logistics, and the catering industry.

In the real estate sector, recruitment positions in home/interior design/decoration, real estate agencies, and the real estate/construction/building materials/engineering industry only saw a modest 3% growth in job openings.

Among the occupations with the highest increase in job seekers, blue-collar positions account for half, including delivery clerks (47.9%), packers (45.5%), retail staff (37.5%), catering services (35.5%), general workers/technicians (23.5%), property/security (21.6%), home services/maintenance (21.2%), and others.

Since the end of the epidemic, the spring recruitment market, considered a crucial time for hiring, has seen a decline in demand for several consecutive years. The phenomenon of factories aggressively hiring general workers in the past is fading away.

Over the past decade, the manufacturing industry provided over 27% of job opportunities for 300 million rural migrant workers. With a significant drop in factory recruitment demands, tens of millions of rural migrant workers are facing challenges in finding employment in the new year.

Data shows that the proportion of rural migrant workers in the manufacturing industry decreased to 27.4% in 2022, down 8.3 percentage points from 2012.

In January, China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell into contraction territory at 49.1, the lowest level in nearly four months. This reflects a low level of recruitment intention among enterprises.

Kunshan in Jiangsu Province is a manufacturing center with an export focus in China. However, the city has started to witness a different scenario with companies laying off employees, cutting wages and benefits, while workers face difficulties in finding employment.

A reporter from Dajiyuan attempted to contact a labor recruitment company in Kunshan that was interviewed a year ago, but the phone number indicated as disconnected due to unpaid bills.

Similarly, another labor recruitment company in Kunshan previously interviewed by Dajiyuan also could not be reached by phone.

American economist Davy J. Wong mentioned that the fundamental reason for companies reducing recruitment and layoffs is the disappearance of economic growth momentum, weakened domestic and external demands, coupled with rising costs and structural imbalances, leading to oversupply in capacity and demand.

“Many companies, for survival, inevitably have to downsize and cut costs, which ultimately leads to layoffs. This is a significant issue for the overall manufacturing and service industries in China,” he said.

For most people, employment in 2025 is inevitably affected. Social media is filled with discussions about 2025 being the toughest year for laborers, with many netizens sharing their struggles in finding jobs or being laid off.

Mr. Chen, a small business owner in Fujian, mentioned that many factories in his area have closed or relocated, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of migrants from other regions. He noted the drastic change in the coastal region where once bustling streets filled with people from outside the area are now empty.

Mr. Lu from Zhejiang shared that their area is closer to Yiwu, known for its export-oriented businesses. However, they have been experiencing a continuous decline in orders. Recruitment in companies hasn’t increased but rather decreased.

He mentioned that before the pandemic, there were some profits to be made. However, with the economic downturn, the return on investment is low, leading to losses. He gave an example of a relative who invested millions into the catering industry after believing that things would improve post-pandemic, only to accumulate significant debts.

He further described how the once-popular filming location of Hengdian used to attract many people for movies and TV productions, but now, the number of migrant workers and overall activities have significantly reduced. The commercial street in Hengdian has seen many shops closing down.

“In the past, large investments were made by film and television productions. Now, most are small productions primarily for online short videos with much lower budgets,” he explained.

Due to a lack of job opportunities, there is a rising trend of individuals engaging in “flexible employment.” As of 2021, flexible employment in China reached 200 million, accounting for half of urban employment. By the end of 2024, official statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that flexible employment in China exceeded 200 million people.

Mr. Zhao, a migrant worker from a village in Henan, shared his experience of returning home from Guangdong two years ago due to challenges in finding work. He now falls under flexible employment within the scope of rural migrant workers seeking alternative means to make a living.

“I’m currently not doing anything, just staying at home, relying on my savings. To be honest, I’m getting older, and there’s not much hope in working anymore. Last year, someone organized an e-commerce business where you can sell products through an online store, relying on traffic to make money,” he explained.

He expressed that farming in rural areas is barely profitable, emphasizing the meager income from selling wheat compared to the high cost of water.

Despite the hardships, he emphasized the necessity for migrant workers to seek employment elsewhere. Many individuals have already left after the Chinese New Year. However, due to the limited job opportunities, it’s challenging to secure immediate employment.

As the two sessions of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress approach, interviewed individuals express their lack of hope for significant changes.

Mr. Chen from Fujian voiced concerns about the overall poor economy, especially with the upcoming two sessions. He pondered on whether any changes would occur and the future outlook for China.

“China has been through so many dynasties. If we have to endure this for a few more years, it will be incredibly challenging! Many people are struggling to repay debts and mortgages, facing unemployment, resorting to drastic measures like suicide,” he remarked.

Mr. Lu from Zhejiang shared a similar sentiment, noting that life is getting progressively tougher every year on the mainland. He anticipates that the challenges ahead will only become more daunting.

“This was expected. I always knew this day would come,” he concluded.

As external pressures threaten the economy in 2025, Beijing is seeking to create more job opportunities and attract additional foreign direct investment. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has called for comprehensive support for employment, with the Ministry of Commerce pledging further opening up in the telecommunications, healthcare, and education sectors.

However, against the backdrop of an overall decline in foreign investment, foreign companies are reducing the number of employees employed in China due to rising labor costs, fierce competition, slowing economic growth, and heightened geopolitical risks.

In 2023, the number of employees in foreign-funded enterprises in China fell by 15%, dropping below 10 million for the first time since 2009.

There are reports indicating that Mercedes-Benz China held discussions with some employees on February 26, initiating layoffs on the same day with an estimated 15% reduction in staff. Reuters reported that HSBC is planning to lay off 900 employees in its Dingjian business segment in China.

The world’s second-largest wine and spirits group, Pernod Ricard, and Danish beer company Carlsberg warned earlier this month that there are few signs of a recovery in Chinese consumer demand, painting a bleak outlook for 2025.

The CEO of Carlsberg expects no significant changes in the Chinese economy. The Chinese beer market is projected to decline by 4%-5% in 2024. Pernod Ricard announced an early performance report, indicating a significant 25% decline in sales in China.

Davy J. Wong stated that the reasons for companies reducing recruitment or implementing layoffs are due to increasing pressures on private enterprises that could resolve full employment being nationalized. State-owned enterprises are rigid, making it challenging for better development. Geopolitical tensions and external pressures have led to a gradual shift of many high-quality companies out of China.

With the shrinking traditional employment positions, Chinese leader Xi Jinping introduced a new policy in his report at the 20th National Congress in October 2022, focusing on promoting high-quality and full employment.

Since then, Chinese state media has heavily promoted emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, robots, biomedicine, and new energy, leading to a substantial increase in job opportunities in these fields.

Wong pointed out that while Beijing is vigorously promoting the technology industry and creating new job opportunities, these emerging industries have limited absorption capacity compared to the traditional manufacturing industry, which could employ hundreds of thousands of workers. Moreover, AI and automation technologies themselves lead to significant unemployment.

“The government’s plans are positive, but the technology industry needs actual demand to drive growth, not just subsidies. Currently, the overall demand in the technology industry is insufficient, resulting in weak recruitment intentions mainly driven by short-term government subsidies,” he explained.

He expressed that the conflicting goals of achieving full employment and high-quality development have become a challenge.

Wong believes that the economy should be left to market forces rather than excessive government intervention, which could create a reliance on subsidies and policies. This approach could lead to the dominance of semi-state-owned enterprises and a bureaucratic class rather than supporting private enterprises that drive economic growth.

“The idea of using planned economy to manage the market is unlikely to succeed,” he added.