Recently, Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China and the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff of the Military Commission, made a rare visit to Malaysia and Indonesia, sparking concerns about the Minister of National Defense, Dong Jun. As Dong Jun, who holds important diplomatic responsibilities in the military, was represented by Liu Zhenli during this visit, it appeared highly unusual. Political analysts suggest that this move may indicate that some of the real power within the Chinese military has shifted to the faction of Zhang Youxia, the vice-chairman of the Military Commission, and some power is no longer under the control of Party leader Xi Jinping.
During his visit to Malaysia on January 7-8, Liu Zhenli met with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar expressed his hope to enhance exchanges and deepen practical cooperation between the defense departments and military forces of the two countries. Liu Zhenli mentioned that China is willing to deepen exchanges and practical cooperation in various fields with Malaysia.
While in Malaysia, Liu Zhenli also separately met with the Malaysian Minister of Defense, Hishammuddin, and the Commander of the Armed Forces, Mohamed, to discuss issues such as the international and regional situation and military relations.
Subsequently, Liu Zhenli traveled to Jakarta, Indonesia, where he met with the Indonesian Minister of Defense, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, and the Commander of the National Army, Agus Subiyanto, on January 9-10. The discussions focused on further strengthening practical cooperation between the two militaries in areas such as personnel exchanges and joint training.
Foreign affairs activities of the Chinese military are usually led by the Minister of National Defense, making it extremely rare for the Chief of the General Staff to make overseas visits. However, Liu Zhenli’s substitution for Dong Jun’s overseas visit, and the high-level reception he received, along with discussions on specific defense issues during the visits, have attracted widespread attention.
On January 16, political commentator Tang Jingyuan, who resides in the United States, stated during an interview with Epoch Times that Liu Zhenli’s unusual visits to Malaysia and Indonesia are noteworthy. Previously, in 2016, the former Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, Fang Fenghui, visited Malaysia for the opening of a China-Malaysia joint military exercise, which was a specific event. In contrast, Liu Zhenli’s visits this time focused more on reaching agreements on defense issues between the two countries, a responsibility that should have been undertaken by Dong Jun.
Tang Jingyuan mentioned that within the military, Liu Zhenli is aligned with Zhang Youxia, the first vice-chairman of the Military Commission, while Dong Jun is affiliated with Miao Hua, the suspended Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission. Miao Hua has been seen as a close ally of Xi Jinping, suggesting that Dong Jun belongs to Xi Jinping’s camp.
Tang Jingyuan pointed out that Liu Zhenli’s visits signal that the substantive tasks related to military cooperation with foreign forces or governments are now being handled by individuals under the faction of Zhang Youxia. This implies that many powers are no longer held by Xi Jinping.
In December 2023, the Communist Party of China announced the appointment of naval commander Dong Jun as the Minister of National Defense, replacing the fallen former Minister of National Defense, Li Shangfu. Dong Jun became the first naval officer to serve as the Minister of National Defense in the Chinese Communist Party and the shortest-serving naval commander in Chinese military history, with a term of only two years and four months.
Since the establishment of the Communist Party of China, the position of Minister of National Defense has typically been held by officials at or above the vice-ministerial level, often concurrently served by members of the Central Military Commission or State Council, or even by members of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission. However, Dong Jun neither entered the Central Military Commission nor was promoted to State Councilor during the National People’s Congress in March 2024.
On November 28, 2024, the Communist Party of China announced that Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission and the Director of the Political Work Department, had been suspended and placed under investigation. This news sparked widespread attention to the future fate of Dong Jun.
Following rumors of Dong Jun’s involvement in corruption investigations, he has made only two public appearances. One was on December 5, 2024, when he met with foreign delegation in Shanghai, and the other on December 19, when he met with the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam in Hanoi. However, official Chinese media reports on these activities did not include any photos or videos of Dong Jun at the meetings.
Although the Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson denied reports from Western media regarding Dong Jun’s alleged troubles during a press conference on November 28, 2024, public opinion generally believes that Dong Jun’s situation may only be temporarily “safe.” Miao Hua’s downfall has heightened external scrutiny of Dong Jun, and many speculate that his future path remains uncertain.
Tang Jingyuan suggested that whether Dong Jun is in trouble is no longer the critical issue, as his failure to enter the Central Military Commission indicates that his position within the Chinese military is merely a titular appointment. If Dong Jun is in trouble, it is likely related to the Miao Hua case; even if Dong Jun remains unaffected, his public appearances may remain symbolic on certain occasions. Tang Jingyuan opined that whether or not Dong Jun is in trouble will not have a significant impact on the reshuffling of high-level power within the Chinese Communist Party.
Additionally, if Dong Jun runs into trouble, it would mean that following Wei Feng and Li Shangfu, three consecutive Ministers of National Defense have been targeted. At least in the eyes of outsiders, this could be a significant blow to the reputation of the Communist Party of China. Moreover, as Dong Jun and Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan, come from the same province of Shandong, if Dong Jun is indeed investigated, it might indicate a weakening of Peng Liyuan’s influence in the military.
Independent commentator and writer Cai Shenkun informed Epoch Times reporters that there could be connections between Dong Jun and Miao Hua, and whether Xi Jinping will spare Dong Jun remains to be seen.
Cai Shenkun noted that although there have been rumors in the past about Dong Jun’s predicament, the Chinese Communist Party denied them as false, possibly indicating that after an investigation, they decided to let Dong Jun stay on for the sake of “overall stability.” Regarding Liu Zhenli replacing Dong Jun on the overseas visits, Cai Shenkun believed that this alone is not enough to confirm whether Dong Jun is facing difficulties, as he has not received any internal information about Dong Jun’s alleged troubles.
Furthermore, Dong Jun holds a low position within the military, merely serving as a nominal Minister of National Defense and lacking substantive decision-making power. Therefore, Cai Shenkun is of the opinion that whether or not Dong Jun is in trouble will not significantly impact the Chinese military.