Taiwanese meteorological expert Wu Derong said today (22nd) that the threat of Typhoon Kemi is intensifying and early typhoon preparedness should be in place. He estimated that Tropical Storm Kemi will intensify into a medium typhoon today and continue to strengthen and expand; on the 24th and 25th, it will be closest to Taiwan, and precautions should be taken to guard against strong winds and heavy rain leading to disasters.
The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan reported that as of 8 a.m. today, the center of Typhoon Kemi was located at 19.5 degrees north latitude and 109.5 degrees east longitude, moving northwest at a speed of 14 kilometers per hour. The central pressure is 995 hPa; the maximum wind speed near the center is 18 meters per second, with maximum instantaneous gusts of 25 meters per second, and the radius of gale-force winds is 80 kilometers (60 kilometers to the northwest, 100 kilometers to the northeast, 50 kilometers to the southwest, 90 kilometers to the southeast).
Taiwan Central University’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences adjunct associate professor Wu Derong stated in a post on “Sanli Accurate Meteorology – Old Big Reveals Heavenly Secrets” today that the Central Weather Bureau’s typhoon path potential forecast map at 2 a.m. on the 22nd showed Tropical Storm Kemi east of the Philippine Sea, moving northwest before turning north-northwest, and is expected to strengthen into a “medium typhoon” today with a gale-force wind radius of 220 kilometers, and it will continue to strengthen and expand.
Wu Derong stated that Typhoon Kemi is expected to move northward along the eastern sea of Taiwan on the 23rd and 24th, passing near Yonaguni Island, then turning northwest to enter the northern sea of Taiwan on the 25th; the circulation will sweep across most of Taiwan, with outer circulation affecting other areas. As it approaches Taiwan on the 24th and 25th, its intensity will peak, bringing the threat of “strong winds and heavy rain” that should not be underestimated.
Wu Derong pointed out that the European model’s ensemble simulation map at 8 p.m. on the 21st showed uncertainty in the future path of Typhoon Kemi, with the threat intensifying if it veers to the west and lessening if it moves away, so close monitoring is required.
Additionally, he mentioned that the European model simulation at 8 p.m. on the 21st indicated that Taiwan’s air was relatively warm today with clear skies, strong sunlight heating up the day to around 39 degrees Celsius, requiring sun protection and heatstroke prevention to avoid heat injuries. In the afternoon, localized showers or thunderstorms will occur near mountainous areas, affecting some plains, with a probability of localized “heavy thunderstorms” (lightning, strong winds, heavy rain in an instant, etc.), so caution is advised. The maximum temperatures today in various regions are: northern Taiwan 24 to 39 degrees, central Taiwan 23 to 37 degrees, southern Taiwan 23 to 38 degrees, eastern Taiwan 23 to 39 degrees.
He stated that according to the latest model simulations, as Typhoon Kemi gradually approaches on the 23rd, there will be localized brief showers in the northern and eastern regions, with afternoon convection in the central and southern regions, still with a probability of localized “heavy thunderstorms” and slightly lower temperatures. On the 24th and 25th, affected by the typhoon and outer circulation, the weather will turn cooler, necessitating enhanced typhoon preparedness in all regions to guard against strong winds and heavy rain causing disasters. From the 26th to the 28th, as the typhoon gradually moves away, temperatures will rise again, the atmosphere will remain unstable, and there will still be strong convection and a continued need to guard against localized heavy rainfall.
Furthermore, Wu Derong mentioned that the Central Weather Bureau’s typhoon path potential forecast map at 2 a.m. on the 22nd showed that Tropical Storm Babylonia will move northwest toward the coast of Hainan Island, is expected to depart in the afternoon and head towards the border between China and Vietnam, with no “dual typhoon dance” effect with Typhoon Kemi.
Meteorologist Liu Yu of the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan stated that Typhoon Kemi, the third typhoon of the year, is approaching Taiwan, and if its path remains unchanged, a marine typhoon warning is expected to be issued late tonight to early on the 23rd, and there is also a possibility of issuing a land typhoon warning in the latter half of the 23rd, urging everyone to prepare for the typhoon. Typhoon Kemi is still intensifying and is expected to become a medium typhoon as early as tonight.