The Japanese government plans to reduce the estimated death toll from a massive earthquake in the Nankai Trough by about 80% in the next ten years. The current simulation predicts a potential loss of up to 298,000 lives, and the government aims to cut this number significantly. Additionally, they aim to halve the number of buildings completely destroyed from the current 2.35 million. This ambitious goal has been included in the new draft of the “Disaster Preparedness Basic Plan,” which was approved at a disaster prevention meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday, June 10. The final decision is expected to be made by the Central Disaster Management Council before July.
According to the Nikkei Asian Review, the new plan requires local governments to actively cooperate, especially those located in high tsunami risk areas. These municipalities must update the disaster prediction maps for tsunamis on the largest scale within five years and conduct regular evacuation drills to enhance residents’ response capabilities and operational efficiency.
The current plan, established in 2014, also aimed to reduce the projected death toll of 332,000 by 80%. However, the Japanese government has expressed concerns that despite implementing various measures over the past decade, the actual effectiveness has only resulted in a 20% reduction in fatalities, bringing the number down to 264,000. This highlights insufficient implementation of disaster prevention measures at the local level and raises concerns about the government’s effectiveness in responding to disasters.
A simulation report released by the Japanese Cabinet Office on March 31 this year warned that if a severe earthquake and tsunami were to occur in the Nankai Trough, it could lead to 298,000 fatalities, necessitate the evacuation of 12.3 million people, and result in economic losses of up to 270 trillion yen (approximately 1.8 trillion US dollars). This would become one of the most severe national disasters in modern Japanese history.
The Japanese government is currently revising relevant plans based on the latest disaster predictions. To significantly reduce the death toll, the revised content will set quantitative goals for various strategies and strengthen progress monitoring to ensure effective implementation of measures.
The Nankai Trough earthquake is one of Japan’s most concerning potential natural disasters, with its seismic zone stretching from Suruga Bay to the east side of Kyushu, covering a total length of about 700 kilometers. According to simulation reports issued by the Central Disaster Management Council in 2012 and 2014, earthquakes of this type may occur every 90 to 150 years and could trigger tsunamis several meters high, causing devastating damage to coastal cities. The seismological community generally believes that it is not a matter of “if” but “when” the Nankai Trough earthquake will occur.