As the deadline of January 19 approaches, the TikTok ban is set to take effect. The 170 million American users of TikTok are wondering about the fate of their TikTok applications and accounts once the ban is enforced within the next two to three days.
In April 2024, the US Congress overwhelmingly passed the “Don’t Buy, Ban” Act targeting TikTok, officially named the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act.” President Biden subsequently signed the bipartisan-supported bill into law. The Act mandates that TikTok must either separate from its Chinese parent company ByteDance by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the United States.
January 19 happens to be the day before the inauguration of the next US President, coincidentally President Trump, and also a Sunday. It is reported that Trump hopes to take action to retain TikTok, depending on TikTok’s performance and the decisions of the Supreme Court. This uncertainty leaves TikTok’s fate in limbo.
On January 14, TikTok denied reports suggesting that Chinese officials were considering selling the company’s US business to Elon Musk, a tech billionaire and senior adviser to President-elect Trump, before the ban comes into effect on the 19th.
TikTok spokesperson Michael Hughes stated in a statement, “We cannot comment on pure fiction events.” Prior to this, Bloomberg reported on January 13 that the Chinese government was considering a plan for Musk’s social platform, X, to control and operate TikTok’s business in the US.
Musk, a close ally of Trump, vowed to “save TikTok” during his 2024 campaign. In December last year, following TikTok’s challenge to the “Don’t Buy, Ban” law, Trump submitted a brief to the Supreme Court, requesting a delay in the law’s implementation to negotiate preserving TikTok.
During oral arguments on January 11, reports from Congress Hill suggested that the Supreme Court justices seemed inclined to support the Biden administration. The Biden administration has warned about TikTok’s relationship with the Chinese Communist Party and the potential for the CCP to access American user data or secretly manipulate algorithms.
It is reported that TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will attend Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Incoming National Security Adviser under Trump, Mike Waltz, stated on January 15 that President-elect Trump will take action to protect TikTok post-inauguration while safeguarding American user data.
Waltz said, “TikTok is a fantastic platform on its own, and I hope to have it on my phone. Its algorithm is amazing. We will find a way to preserve it while protecting people’s data. That’s the deal we have in front of us.”
The Supreme Court is expected to issue some form of decision, either upholding the ban or intervening temporarily to aid Trump in saving TikTok.
Waltz added, “If the Supreme Court makes a decision favorable to the law, President Trump has been very clear. First, TikTok is a fantastic platform used by many Americans, which played a significant role in his campaign messaging. Second, he will protect people’s data. Some people do not want the US government to see all their data and passwords. Of course, we don’t want the Chinese government to see all their data and passwords.” Waltz also mentioned, “He (Trump) is a dealmaker. I don’t want to lead with our executive orders, but we will create space for this deal to materialize.”
This week, all eyes are on the Supreme Court, waiting to see how the justices will decide on TikTok’s fate. According to Congress Hill Report, there are four possible rulings the Supreme Court may make before January 19.
The Supreme Court may stand with the Biden administration, keeping the ban on TikTok effective.
The Biden administration defends the “Don’t Buy, Ban” law on the urge of national security, citing concerns about the CCP potentially secretly manipulating TikTok’s content algorithms and accessing data from over 170 million monthly US users.
Deputy Attorney General Elizabeth Prelogar stated during the Supreme Court debate on January 11, “No one denies that the PRC (referring to the People’s Republic of China) is trying to damage the interests of the United States by collecting vast amounts of sensitive data about Americans and secretly influencing operations. No one denies that the PRC achieves these objectives by forcing companies like ByteDance to secretly transfer data and information and carry out PRC’s instructions.”
Prelogar further added, “These realities mean that the Chinese government can weaponize TikTok at any time to harm the US.”
Upholding the ban would mean that app stores offering TikTok downloads from January 19 onwards would be deemed illegal. However, users who have already downloaded the TikTok app will not see it removed immediately, but over time, if they are unable to update it, TikTok will become unusable.
If the Supreme Court deems the “Don’t Buy, Ban” law to violate the First Amendment protection of free speech under the US Constitution, the justices could overturn the law, consequently lifting the TikTok ban.
Lawsuits filed by TikTok’s US entities and individual creators on the platform argue that the law infringes on their freedom of speech.
However, the US Department of Justice and FBI have previously stated that TikTok’s case falls within national security concerns, not free speech. Additionally, there are laws in the US stipulating that ownership of platforms serving as primary information sources cannot belong to adversaries of the US.
The Supreme Court could also side with Trump, temporarily intervening and postponing the originally scheduled January 19 ban, providing Trump the opportunity to save TikTok post-inauguration.
Although Trump is not directly involved in the case, he urged the justices to delay the ban’s implementation deadline, allowing him to negotiate a deal to preserve TikTok post-inauguration on January 20.
Trump’s nominee for Deputy Assistant Attorney General, D. John Sauer, said, “President Trump opposes banning TikTok in the US at this time. He seeks to solve the issue politically once he assumes office.”
High expectations await the Supreme Court’s actions by January 19, but there is no obligation for the justices to act this week. Alternatively, they may choose not to issue any decisions, allowing the ban to take effect naturally.
Even if the TikTok ban is effective from January 19, it is not necessarily irreversible.
Technically, the Supreme Court could overturn the “Don’t Buy, Ban” law post-January 19 and reinstate TikTok nationwide.
Some investors have expressed interest in purchasing TikTok. If ByteDance changes its stance and agrees to separate TikTok, President Biden retains the power to issue a 90-day extension of the ban before leaving office, allowing the transaction to proceed. However, ByteDance reportedly remains steadfast in refusing to sell TikTok.
Should the TikTok ban take effect on January 19, it is speculated by Congress Hill that the following scenarios may play out for TikTok and its users.
The law stipulates that post-ban enforcement, app stores such as those operated by Google or Apple and web hosting platforms providing TikTok downloads to users will be deemed illegal.
As a result, TikTok will be removed from app stores, with new users unable to download it. Nevertheless, TikTok already downloaded on US devices is unlikely to be deleted initially.
Jason Kelley, radicalism director of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, said, “TikTok will be helpless if app stores remove the service, meaning the function to download the app will be removed, causing little immediate trouble for most users.”
Since app stores are not updating, the app may experience increasing errors, ultimately rendering it unusable for American users over time.
Kelley anticipated, “These errors may come from the fact that TikTok may gradually cease its services overnight, or over weeks or months.”
He added, “If I were to bet, we would see that within 48 hours, most users attempting to load TikTok will encounter some sort of connection error.”
These errors may include unloaded visual effects, inability to click on links, or view content posted post-ban enforcement.
While TikTok has not publicly confirmed its plans, a report stated that the company intends to immediately shut down its app for US users post-ban enforcement on January 19.
According to The Information, quoting two sources familiar with TikTok’s plans, unless the Supreme Court overturns the ban, TikTok plans to prevent US users from using the app after the ban becomes effective.
Per The Information report, under this plan, users attempting to open the TikTok app will receive a message guiding them to a website containing information about the ban. The media added that users will be able to choose to download their data but will not be able to use the app.
TikTok’s attorney, Noel Francisco, told the court last week that unless the justices intervene before the deadline, the platform will be “shut down.”
The Cato Institute’s senior research fellow in technology policy, Jennifer Huddleston, told Congress Hill that TikTok may choose to exit the US market due to concerns.
Tech experts predict that many TikTok users may attempt to use Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to hide their IP addresses to continue downloading and using the app.
Kelly explained, “The likely scenario is that people will try to download the new version of TikTok because the version on their phone no longer functions, and they cannot download it through the app store.”
Kelly noted that using VPNs or alternative channels is not without risk. He predicted that black market websites or hackers might try to exploit the large number of users searching for ways to download TikTok post-ban to potentially install spyware on their phones.
He said, “The issue people should consider is if you cannot download the app itself from a reputable source, the app you download may somehow be manipulated.” Kelly added, “This could potentially result in installing spyware on phones.”
Cutting off access to TikTok may prompt its over 170 million American users to seek alternatives.
Alternative apps have started flooding in this week. On January 14, the Chinese social media app “Xiao Hong Shu” witnessed a surge in downloads, becoming the most downloaded free app on the US Apple App Store.
The Chinese app, translated as “Little Red Book” in English, allows users to upload short videos, post content, and engage in e-commerce functions. The app has gained popularity in China and other regions in recent years, with over 300 million monthly active users currently.
Earlier this week, thousands of American users joined Xiao Hong Shu, identifying themselves as “TikTok refugees” in protest of the imminent ban. Observations suggest that many of these American users interacted with seemingly Chinese users instructing Americans on using the app and switching the language from Mandarin to English.
Another ByteDance-owned app, Lemon8, also ascended the download charts this week. The app offers similar features to other popular platforms, enabling photo or carousel photo uploads like Instagram and personalized video elements similar to TikTok.
While the substitute roles of these apps generated initial excitement, it remains unclear if they, too, will face a similar fate of being banned in the US like TikTok or if users will be willing to sustainably continue their usage.
The “Don’t Buy, Ban” law solely applies to TikTok and ByteDance and its subsidiaries, meaning Lemon8 may face similar challenges, but it doesn’t extend to other platforms.
Yet, Mark Montgomery, director of the Center for Technology and Innovation, mentioned that this law will pave the way for quicker responses to challenges posed by foreign-owned apps in the future.
He told Congress Hill, “I feel good about how the TikTok situation is being handled. I am still concerned about more extensive and sustained information attacks by our adversaries against the US, but these attacks are generally under-recognized.”
Even if the ban becomes effective, it does not hinder the potential future separation of TikTok from ByteDance.
Reportedly, many companies and billionaires are still interested in purchasing this social media platform. With President Trump set to be sworn in the day after the TikTok ban takes effect, he expressed his desire to find a solution to keep TikTok active in the US.
However, the divestment deal may require more than a few days to complete.
Huddleston noted, “It’s a relatively large transaction, and larger transactions usually take some time. Yes, they could happen quickly, but even with buyers, it’s usually not an overnight affair.”
She continued, “This situation also occurs during periods of increased scrutiny over large tech acquisitions.” She may refer to recent antitrust reviews facing major tech companies.
Indeed, President Biden can choose to extend the ban for 90 days before leaving the White House, provided ByteDance and TikTok demonstrate progress in their divestiture negotiations.
Huddleston pointed out that once Trump assumes office, he could also use his congressional allies to pass legislation extending the ban’s final deadline.