In Ireland, more than 680 candidates are vying for seats in the largest ever parliament to be formed following the election on November 29. Analysts believe that the election results are difficult to predict.
Over the past two weeks, parties of all sizes have made hundreds of promises on issues ranging from employment, taxation, immigration, education to social welfare. Housing and cost of living, long-standing concerns, have been the focal points of debates and campaign activities leading up to the election.
As the election enters its final stretch, polls indicate a tight race, with almost no one daring to assert who the ultimate winner will be. However, analysts unanimously agree that no single party is likely to secure a majority in parliament.
Traditionally, the two most likely winners of the election are the center-right parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Both parties have 81 candidates each running this year, more than any other party. Even if all their candidates emerge victorious, they will fall short of the requirement of 88 seats for a parliamentary majority. This indicates that the next government is likely to be a coalition involving the two major parties or multiple parties.
However, the latest opinion polls released on the final Sunday before the election showed that there is a neck-and-neck race between the two major parties and the largest opposition party, Sinn Féin.
The highest support was for Fine Gael led by current Prime Minister Simon Harris. According to the latest poll by Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks, Fine Gael is currently at 22% support, ranking first, but has decreased by 4 percentage points compared to earlier this month.
In contrast, support for Fianna Fáil has risen to 20%. Sinn Féin’s support has also increased by 2 percentage points, reaching 20%.
In the previous election, Sinn Féin achieved its best-ever results, securing 37 parliamentary seats. This year, Sinn Féin has 71 candidates running, second only to the two major ruling parties. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald hopes to further advance in the election on the 29th and lead the next coalition government.
However, analysts are not optimistic about this. Gary Murphy, a political science professor at Dublin City University, believes that while Sinn Féin’s performance this year may exceed many experts’ expectations, the party is unlikely to become the ruling party due to slim prospects of forming a coalition.
Because coalition prospects are bleak. Murphy pointed out to local media that Sinn Féin’s policy positions on climate, agriculture and other issues are starkly different from existing small parties – including the Social Democrats, Labour, or Aontú – making successful negotiations challenging. The most realistic approach for Sinn Féin may be to reconcile with Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, but the professor admitted that he believes such a scenario is unlikely.
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin stated early in the election race that the party will not form a coalition with Sinn Féin. While Sinn Féin does not rule out the possibility of alliance with any party, McDonald responded by expressing her hope to “form a new government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.”
Despite the differing governance ideologies among the three parties, they all agree on the need to build more homes to address the housing crisis.
The housing crisis has plagued Ireland for many years. In 2020, 10,000 homeless individuals resided in emergency accommodation provided by the government. This number has now exceeded 14,000 this year, including over 4,000 children. Last month, house prices continued to surge at a double-digit monthly rate; prices have risen by 155% since 2013. High property costs and housing shortages have delayed the median age of first-time homebuyers from 33 to 43 over the past decade.
However, the solutions proposed by the ruling and opposition parties differ significantly. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil aim to increase support to homebuyers through government initiatives put forth in this term to address the housing crisis. Sinn Féin, on the other hand, believes these initiatives will only fuel inflation and lead to further price hikes; they plan to phase out homebuyer support programs over the next five years.
In terms of the number of houses to be constructed, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have similar goals. Both parties pledge to build 303,000 houses by the end of 2030, equating to an average of 50,000 houses built annually over the next six years. Additionally, both parties promise to increase the annual construction of social housing to 12,000 by 2030 to address the significant social issue of homelessness.
Sinn Féin, on the other hand, aims to deliver 370,000 new homes by 2030, with an average of 61,000 homes delivered annually. Sinn Féin announced its major housing strategy even before the election began, with party leader McDonald committing to implementing this plan from day one if elected.
Local media outlet Business Post analyzed the housing policies of each party on the basis of impact, credibility, and financing capability, giving ratings on a scale of 10. Sinn Féin performed best with a score of 6, slightly higher than Fine Gael’s 5.6, with Fianna Fáil coming in third at 5.
Aside from housing, cost of living is a crucial factor directly influencing voters, and all parties have proposed corresponding measures to address it.
Fianna Fáil has proposed: in the next term, increasing the national pension to “at least €350 per week”; reducing child rearing expenses to €200 per month; and maintaining the value-added tax on natural gas and electricity at the current 9%.
Fianna Fáil further proposes raising the threshold for high-income earners’ income tax to “at least €50,000”; currently, the threshold for the 40% high-income tax rate is €42,000.
Fine Gael has also put forward a comprehensive tax reform plan, including raising the threshold of the higher tax rate in personal income tax by at least €2,000; and increasing the threshold for inheritance tax from €400,000 to €500,000.
Additionally, Fine Gael promises to create 9,000 new job opportunities in the international financial services sector by 2030.
While housing is Sinn Féin’s focus, the party has also proposed various measures to address the cost of living, such as abolishing the universal social charge (USC) in the personal income tax of those earning €45,000 annually, and raising the threshold of the standard 20% tax rate by €4,000 in income tax. Sinn Féin also pledges to increase child welfare benefits by €25 and certain disability benefits by €70.
The Business Post rated each party’s housing policies on targets, credibility, and financing capacity, giving Sinn Féin the highest score of 6, slightly above Fine Gael’s score of 5.6, with Fianna Fáil ranking third at 5.