“In Focus: CCP Military Aircraft Crashes, Triggering a New Vortex of Infighting”

Today’s focus: Military Jet Crashes, Suspected Internal Strife in Chinese Navy; Pig Disease Outbreak Causes Heavy Losses for Farmers, Chinese Government Remains Silent; US Tightens Visa Regulations, Investigates Anti-American Immigrants, Revokes Immigration Visas and Green Cards.

At the end of the Chinese Communist Party’s two sessions, the military announced that a fighter jet from the Southern Theater Command Navy crashed during training near Lingao County, Hainan Province. Analysts believe that the public announcement of such accidents is rare for the Chinese military, and the timing of the disclosure is highly sensitive, indicating possible complex reasons behind it, likely involving internal power struggles within the military.

According to a message released by the Chinese Navy’s WeChat account on March 15, a fighter jet from the Southern Theater Command Navy crashed during training around 1:30 pm on March 15 near Jialai Town, Lingao County, Hainan Province. The pilot ejected safely. The Southern Theater Command Navy is currently handling post-accident procedures, while the cause of the accident is still under investigation.

However, authorities did not disclose the type of the crashed aircraft nor the number of pilots onboard. Videos circulating on social media show the crashed jet nearly vertically descending and exploding violently upon impact, creating a large fireball in the air.

There are two speculations regarding the crashed aircraft model, one being the carrier-based J-15 fighter jet and the other being the J-11 fighter jet, which is not for carrier use. Analysts suggest that the crashed aircraft is more likely to be the J-11.

The Chinese military has two naval aviation bases on Hainan Island, one in the north and one in the south. The Southern Naval Air Force Base has carrier-based J-15 fighter jets, while the Northern base in Lingao hosts J-11 fighter jets.

An analysis published by “Epoch Times” by Shen Zhou points out that the J-15 imitates the Russian Su-33 carrier-based fighter, but due to limitations of China’s carrier ski-jump decks and the J-15’s heavy weight, it typically only carries “air-to-air” missiles during exercises, lacking practical “air-to-ground” attack capabilities. Training the J-15 for “air-to-ground” strikes is deemed impractical.

It is believed that the J-15 would not fly north to the training base where the crash occurred. The crash location near Jialai Town, Lingao County, in Hainan is close to the training base of the J-11, making the crash of the J-11 more logical.

The article mentions several previous major accidents in the Chinese Navy which were not publicized by authorities. For example, in 2023, there were rumors of a submarine incident, and in 2024, another submarine incident at a shipyard, yet no official information has been released. This time, the quick disclosure of the Navy aircraft crash, right after the end of the Chinese Communist Party’s two sessions, may be related to internal power struggles within the Chinese military, potentially using the crash as a tool in the struggle for military power.

Internal power struggles within the Chinese military are reported to be intense. Insider leaks indicate that Xi Jinping has lost military authority, and Zhang Yuxia is effectively controlling the military now. The people Xi Jinping groomed within the military are now in jeopardy.

Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission who was suspended for investigation, previously served as the Political Commissar of the Chinese Navy for nearly three years. He is now under scrutiny, and the navy officers he promoted during his tenure may now be concerned for their own positions. The swift public release of the Navy aircraft crash incident appears to be further stoking the flames of the internal turmoil within the Chinese military.

Defense Minister Dong Jun was promoted from being the Commander of the Chinese Navy. Speculations suggest that Miao Hua was the driving force behind Dong Jun’s rise, although Dong Jun has so far failed to become a member of the Military Commission due to obstruction from other commission members.

Replacing Miao Hua as the Navy Political Commissar, Qin Shengxiang was rumored to have fallen from grace last year, but this has not been confirmed yet.

All these figures are considered part of Xi Jinping’s inner circle within the military, but currently, their own positions are at risk. Following the Rocket Force, Military Equipment Department, and various defense industry enterprises, the Chinese Navy appears to be the new vortex of internal strife.

The quick public revelation of the aircraft crash incident raises questions about who might benefit from causing further disruption. However, by disclosing this incident, the true quality of the Chinese military’s weaponry is once again exposed.

On March 7, during the two sessions, Xi Jinping discussed the need to improve the military’s “quality and efficiency of construction”; to conduct “comprehensive professional assessments” to ensure that the military has a “bottom-line quality, bottom-line capabilities, and bottom-line integrity.”

Such statements have unveiled the reality of the lack of verification of the Chinese military’s weapon quality and performance, indicating failures to meet the standards set. The J-11 was assembled in China in 1996 based on the Russian Su-27 fighter, with over 440 units produced. The J-11 has not been showcased at Chinese airshows for years and possibly has not been upgraded timely, severely lacking in ground-attack capabilities and primarily used for air interception. Moreover, the significant reduction in the number of J-11 squadrons in the Chinese Air Force suggests that the J-11 is being phased out.

The article highlights that the J-11 has become a significant failure in Chinese fighter projects, costing resources without many effective outcomes. It copied the Russian Su-27 but with inferior performance and possibly a shorter lifespan, making it essentially useless. Despite efforts over the past decade to localize its production, the J-11 appears to have been neglected, far from achieving the intended “quality and efficiency.” In contrast, the US F-16, which has been in service for decades, remains effective on the front lines.

Analysts suggest that based on circulated images of the incident, if proven authentic, the crashed aircraft’s vertical descent could indicate either an aircraft malfunction or improper pilot operation leading to loss of control. If it is an aircraft issue, engine failure is a likely possibility, resulting in complete power loss. If both engines failed simultaneously, it suggests that China still struggles with engine reliability. Additionally, if problems occurred in the transmission system, the issue would be more severe. Following this incident, it remains uncertain whether China will ground all J-11s or possibly phase them out entirely.

While the likelihood of the J-15 being involved in the crash is lower, the shortcomings of the J-15 are not far better than those of the J-11.

The J-15, similar to the J-11, imitates the retired Russian carrier-based Su-33 fighter. The Su-33’s enhanced features led to its excessive weight, preventing it from taking off with full fuel and armament load, ultimately being phased out by Russia. China’s Liaoning and Shandong carriers inherited the Soviet design, and though the carriers mimic US carriers, the fighter jets face similar problems. The J-15 can only perform short-term air defense and lacks the ability to conduct air-to-ground attacks effectively.

The design philosophy of former Soviet carriers was to enhance coastal air defense rather than long-distance naval battles, contrary to China’s naval carriers’ pursuit of oceanic operations. China’s carrier combat system is now striving to emulate the US military comprehensively, with the domestically-built Type 002 carrier subject to the same replication issues, using Russian jets on carriers inspired by the US military. Whether this emulation will be successful remains uncertain, and who qualified to conduct a “professional assessment,” or dare to declare they have a “bottom-line,” remains a mystery.

Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that during Trump’s presidency, he believes China will not take action against Taiwan. This optimistic outlook could be influenced by the US possessing more intelligence about internal discord within the Chinese military, potentially leading to positive implications for peace in the Taiwan Strait.

There are ongoing reports in mainland China of a resurgence of African swine fever, rapidly spreading to multiple provinces. Farm owners are left with no choice but to bury, disinfect, and clear their farms, facing significant losses. However, the Chinese government has not made any official notifications regarding this outbreak.

Numerous farm owners have been posting videos online, revealing the severity of the African swine fever situation. A pig farmer in Kaifeng, Henan Province, with over 20 years of experience, highlighted the outbreak of African swine fever in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, as well as sporadic cases in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. She warned her fellow farmers to prioritize biosafety measures, noting significant losses among clients due to the sudden and lethal virus affecting pigs of all ages and types.

Another pig farmer in Henan shared on March 16 that out of their 200 mother pigs, unfortunately, they contracted African swine fever, costing them 50,000 yuan for treatment over two months, ultimately resulting in the devastation of the entire farm. Through a video, he conveyed the challenges faced by pig farmers.

On March 12, another pig farmer in Henan recorded a video detailing the seventh day of their farm’s encounter with African swine fever, still undergoing treatment and experiencing continuous casualties.

He emphasized, “As a person of conscience, I will not sell a pig infected with the virus. Because African swine fever spreads rapidly. What I can do now is bury deeply, disinfect, and prevent the virus from spreading to other farms.”

Chinese mainland media, since January, have been reporting the outbreak of African swine fever in neighboring countries, while remaining silent about domestic outbreaks. Citizens within China have taken the initiative to share videos online and reveal the outbreak, issuing warnings and reminders to one another.

Veterinarian Guo shared a video on March 13, addressing the heightened concerns surrounding African swine fever and its impact on the pig breeding industry. Global reports of the ASF epidemic have been surging, affecting neighboring countries such as Malaysia, South Korea, and Laos, with recent outbreaks.

He summarized that several regions in China have also been impacted. “As of February, nationwide culling reached 631,000 pigs. Although eight provinces lifted the blockade in the epidemic areas, sporadic cases persist in Xinjiang, Henan, and other regions. In January, an ASF outbreak in Hong Kong resulted in the emergency culling of over 5,800 pigs.”

Currently, African swine fever only affects pigs and has not transmitted to humans. Infected pigs experience acute fever and organ hemorrhaging, particularly spleen bleeding, resulting in high mortality rates and significant losses for pig breeders. Currently, there are no effective vaccines or treatments available on the market, only measures like isolation, disinfection, and humane disposal.

In recent times, the US government arrested two students who participated in Columbia University protests last year, and is moving to cancel one of their green cards, sparking widespread attention. On Sunday, March 16, US Secretary of State Rubio mentioned in an interview that visa revocations, including green cards, are being approved daily, and no one is exempted.

During an interview on a CBS news program, Rubio stated that not only student visas are being revoked, but more actions will be taken. Visa revocations are now a daily occurrence, and if someone manages to obtain a green card through a visa, the green card will undergo the same process.

Further explaining the reasons behind visa cancelations, he noted that when individuals apply to enter the US and obtain a visa, they are considered guests, entering the country as students, tourists, or under other designations. When applying for a visa, individuals are required to make certain statements. If it is indicated that they intend to engage in activities supporting Hamas, contradicting US foreign policy interests, visas will not be granted. However, if visa holders arrive in the US and act against their initial statements, misleading the US government, the consequence will be visa cancelation and deportation.

According to a provision in the 1952 “US Immigration and Nationality Act,” if the Secretary of State deems any immigrant’s presence in the US may be detrimental to US foreign policy, they might be subject to deportation.

An internal memo seen by Reuters revealed that the Trump administration is contemplating broad travel restrictions on citizens from several dozen countries. The memo lists a total of 41 countries divided into three groups. Measures for the listed countries range from total visa suspension to issuance suspensions, or restrictions. A US official told Reuters that the list could still change and requires approval from the US government, including Secretary of State Rubio’s approval.

The article concludes by noting the potential implications of these developments on international relations and internal dynamics within China and the US.