As the year 2025 approaches, global technology companies and governments are busy rolling out more powerful AI, quantum computers, or other high-tech products, while also tightening up updates or strengthening past electronic encryption systems to prevent important data from being cracked and stolen when the “Q-day” arrives.
Current sensitive data such as online banking, encrypted communication platforms, and emails mainly use the Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) encryption method developed in the 1970s, which is complex enough to take thousands of years for a supercomputer (traditional computer) to crack.
One of the most likely candidates to crack PKI are the AI and quantum computers currently under development. Many scientists and researchers have proposed applying AI to the quantum field. For example, AI has been used in calibrating and reading quantum bits in quantum computers, showing its ability to reduce noise from multiple sources during operation, allowing quantum computers to perform “quantum error correction” and ultimately yield reliable results. Additionally, AI is also used to simplify quantum computer circuits to enhance the stability and practicality of quantum computers.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and OpenAI’s lead researcher Mark Chen announced in late December that their AI model o1 had been upgraded to o3. They specially invited Greg Kamradt, chairman of the non-profit organization Advancing Research in Computing (ARC), to endorse and introduce the capabilities of o3.
Kamradt stated that o3 not only surpasses the o1 model but also approaches the standard definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) set by the ARC organization. In terms of dynamic learning (without pre-learned data) and problem-solving abilities, o3 far exceeds other AI and general IT engineers, capable of solving complex problems.
Furthermore, Google introduced a new quantum chip called “Willow” in early December, gradually addressing issues within quantum computers and publishing the findings in the journal “Nature.”
According to Google, the Willow chip has 105 quantum bits (qubits) and can solve problems in just 5 minutes that would take a classical supercomputer 10^25 years to solve. They can also allow quantum computers to add more qubits without increasing error rates, mainly due to the internal logic qubits within the Willow chip that enable real-time error correction.
Although scientists are uncertain about when quantum computers will truly enter practical use, the Google research team hopes to completely resolve the issues preventing quantum computers from practical applications by developing quantum chips and reducing quantum computer error rates.
The operational methods of quantum computers are vastly different from traditional computers. Traditional computers need to convert information into combinations of 1s and 0s, then compute by recognizing the arrangement of 1s and 0s. Quantum computers, on the other hand, process information using “qubits,” which can be any number between 0 and 1 and can generate all possible answers in a very short time. Their processing speed can be billions of times faster than existing supercomputers.
Currently, quantum computers face challenges such as large size, inaccurate operations, lower stability compared to traditional computers, high energy consumption, and sensitivity to environmental factors like space events or other particle interference.
However, Dario Gil, Research Director at IBM, expressed in October that the company plans to offer fault-tolerant error-corrected systems before 2029. If quantum computers can self-correct errors and eliminate external disturbances (microwaves, temperature fluctuations, solar storms), they can solve certain complex problems that traditional computers cannot.
Carlos Perez-Delgado, a senior lecturer at the University of Kent, mentioned in late December that with a large-scale quantum computer, one could easily take control of bitcoins worldwide and even browse and control all email and computer accounts. He warned that when quantum computers can crack the current PKI system, all security, online security systems, cryptocurrencies, emails, and related content would face significant risks.
Prof. Lin Zongnan from the Department of Electrical Engineering and the Institute of Telecommunications Engineering at National Taiwan University stated, “Although there is currently no objective quantification or clearer definition for quantum computers, AGI, and ASI, theoretically, these entities can crack the encryption keys commonly used in today’s networks, communication networks, and online banking by brute force through vast computational capacity available in quantum computers.”
While it is still uncertain when quantum computers and AI may crack the PKI used to protect the world’s most sensitive data, businesses and governments are cautiously evaluating the potential risks and hoping to withstand the acquisition of confidential information by other governments or companies when the “Q-day” arrives.
Canadian cybersecurity company Quantum Defen5e once predicted that humanity will face the “Q-day” in 2025, rendering current encryption methods useless. Various nations are waiting for the “Q-day” to decrypt previously intercepted messages, posing a security risk to all content sent via public networks.
Currently, the most direct ways to prepare for the “Q-day” include changing or strengthening existing encryption systems, investing more in quantum technologies, obtaining advanced chips, and preventing hostile governments from acquiring higher-level chips.
The US government has chosen to adopt all of the above methods. The Biden administration has issued multiple technology bans on China in December this year, aiming to prevent China from exploiting AI and quantum technology for military and hacking purposes.
Additionally, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) of the United States released three post-quantum encryption algorithms in August to fend off future quantum computer attacks and prepare for the arrival of the “Q-day.” Previously, agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) and NIST have urged the public and private companies to adopt “Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)” to establish new PKI mechanisms for communication security.
IBM’s newly developed quantum encryption algorithms ML-KEM and ML-DSA have been incorporated into the NIST standards. These algorithms can assist existing enterprises or create entirely new enterprise applications. The company has also initiated the transition of its latest z16 mainframe to PQC algorithms, where the z16 mainframe stores the majority of global transaction data at present.
A report released by Finnish private quantum computer manufacturer IQM in 2024 revealed that over 30 governments worldwide have committed to providing over $40 billion in public funds for deploying quantum technologies within the next decade. Most of these funds come from Europe and the United States, with the amount of this funding doubling from 2022.
In February of this year, Apple announced that it would enhance the encryption of its iMessage communication software to post-quantum encryption protocol “PQ3.” This protocol is a Level 3 security messaging protocol that can extensively defend against highly complex quantum attacks, ensuring that quantum or hacker attacks cannot achieve “immediate harvesting, later decryption.”
Furthermore, messaging encryption platform Signal elevated the initial key of its application to the PQXDH protocol in September 2023, belonging to the post-quantum secure encryption method, which enhanced the overall application encryption security to an Apple-certified Level 2 (originally Level 1).
The World Economic Forum estimated in 2022 that in the next 20 years, around 20 billion devices globally would need upgrading or replacement to meet quantum security standards.