How US Allies are Getting Ready for the “Trump 2.0” Era

In the News:

“American allies are anxiously hoping for President Trump to be re-elected,” said a spokesperson for Trump’s 2024 campaign team.

“When President Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the world will be safer, and America will be more prosperous,” said another campaign adviser of Trump.

According to recent polls in seven swing states in the US, Trump (or Trump) is leading President Biden in six states, making Trump’s victory in this November’s election a real possibility.

Another sign is that America’s allies around the world are taking the risk of charming Trump and the Republican Party, preparing for Trump’s potential return to power after the November election.

On April 8, former British Prime Minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron made a surprising trip to Florida and had a private dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago estate, marking the beginning of the UK’s broad efforts to please the 2024 Republican presidential candidate.

Cameron later revealed in a press conference in Washington DC that he and Trump discussed the Russia-Ukraine war, the war in Afghanistan, and the future of NATO.

While building personal relationships, Britain also offered something concrete to make Trump happy – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced during his visit to Poland on Tuesday (April 23) that the UK will increase defense spending by £75 billion (approximately $93.8 billion) over the next six years to maintain its position as Europe’s largest military power.

Sunak stated at a press conference in Warsaw that it is essential to show the US that Europe understands “now is not the time for complacency.” This statement appears to be in line with what Trump has been saying.

Trump has been vocal about European NATO countries increasing their defense spending to at least meet their commitment of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense as well as providing more aid to Ukraine. He believes that Europe’s current military assistance to Ukraine does not match that provided by the US, and Ukraine holds greater significance for Europe.

His dissatisfaction with countries overly reliant on US military support or deceiving the US was evident. At a campaign rally in February, Trump said regarding NATO’s common defense clause (commonly known as “Article 5”) and many NATO members failing to meet their 2% of GDP defense spending commitment, “If you don’t pay your bills, you don’t get protection. It’s very simple.”

This has raised concerns among many European countries about the possibility of the US withdrawing from NATO under Trump’s leadership in such geopolitically unstable times.

In a bid to ease Europe’s worries, Trump stated weeks later that if he wins in November, he will not pull the US out of NATO. However, reports suggest that if Trump returns as US President, he would reform NATO so that member countries failing to meet the 2% target do not get the protection of NATO’s collective defense clause.

Sunak continued in Warsaw, saying, “If we are not willing to make sacrifices for our own security, we cannot continue to assume that the US will pay any price or bear any burden for us.”

During a one-hour press conference in Warsaw, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stood alongside Sunak, conveying his own message to Trump. Stoltenberg stated, “A strong NATO is good for Europe, and a strong NATO is good for America. Preserving NATO serves American interests, and therefore, I believe they (NATO and the US) will continue to be steadfast and loyal allies.”

Some UK government officials believe that the UK is in a unique position among European countries, especially considering Trump’s pro-UK inclination. Therefore, the UK can listen to Trump’s ideas.

The UK has a long-standing record of meeting NATO defense spending requirements and hopes to lead a coalition with Germany, France, and Poland to demonstrate to the US that Europe can and will play its role. Like several other Eastern European countries, Poland’s defense spending already exceeds the NATO 2% target.

The UK has started challenging other Western European NATO members in meeting its commitments. Sunak and his ministers are urging France, Germany, and other countries to fulfill the UK’s pledge to allocate 2.5% of GDP to defense by 2030, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the current 2%.

France has significantly increased defense spending since President Macron took office in 2017 – a period that coincided with Trump’s first term. The French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced in February that France would achieve the target of defense spending accounting for 2% of GDP this year, surpassing earlier projections.

Similarly, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany has adjusted its defense spending and is expected to meet the 2% target this year.

During a joint press briefing with Sunak in Berlin on Wednesday (April 24), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that although the US Congress approved a $60.8 billion aid package to Ukraine this week, Europe must take further action.

Scholz said, “The US decision does not ease our European mission to further expand support for Ukraine. All Europeans should make necessary decisions based on their economic capabilities.”

Sunak praised Scholz’s remarks and emphasized that all European countries need to “adjust” to adapt to the new reality.

He said, “I firmly believe that when we look back at this moment, we will realize this is a turning point. We need to make adjustments to fit the new paradigm.”

This summer, a NATO 75th anniversary summit will be held in Washington DC, where the UK is pushing for all NATO countries to adopt a 2.5% defense spending target.

A source within the UK Ministry of Defense, unwilling to disclose their identity, informed Politico that the UK will urge all member states at the NATO summit in Washington DC to agree on the “2.5% goal for the 75th” (2.5 for 75). The source also noted that Trump is “quite unpredictable,” and Europe must make every effort to prepare for his potential re-election.

Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director of the London-based Defense and Security think tank RUSI, expressed that the US wants Europe to take more responsibility for its defense so that the US can better address the confrontation with China.

He said, “I think the US debate is in the direction of the more that Europeans do for their defense, the less they feel the US must do. All Americans, especially Republicans, as well as many Democrats, are saying, ‘Look, Europeans must help us – our main struggle in the next period is with China.'”

The UK Labor Party is currently the opposition party, and if they win the upcoming UK general election at the end of the year, establishing a good relationship with a possible Trump 2.0 government may be more challenging than with the current UK Conservative government.

Labor’s Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy once criticized Trump as a “misogynistic, neo-Nazi sociopath” in Time magazine. However, a Labor official revealed to Reuters that Lammy is currently working to establish contacts with Republicans.

The Labor official stated that Lammy has met with Republican figures considered potential Cabinet members in a future Trump administration, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Although Lammy declined to be interviewed, he mentioned that regardless of who holds the White House, he will represent Britain’s interests as Foreign Secretary.

Victoria Coates, former Deputy National Security Advisor in the Trump administration, pointed out that the UK Labour Party’s “personal comments are sharp,” and if the US sees a Trump victory while the Labour Party wins in the UK, it could lead to difficulties in US-UK relations.

According to Reuters, Germany has been building bridges with Trump’s Republican base at the state level and reminding Republican officials of Germany’s significant investments in the US.

Considering Trump’s past threats to impose punitive tariffs on the German automotive industry during his previous term and his current proposal to levy a minimum 10% tariff on all imported products upon returning to the presidency, Germany has dispatched a transatlantic coordinator, Michael Link, to lobby in the US, preparing for Trump’s potential return to power.

Michael Link, the coordinator, is leading Germany’s “bypass diplomacy,” targeting influential individuals in the swing states where Germany has substantial investments. He emphasized the importance of preventing Trump from imposing punitive tariffs on EU goods if re-elected.

Link has met with Republican governors in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, and Indiana. At each stop, he explained why good trade relations support Germany’s presence in the US. BMW, a prominent German brand of cars manufactured in the US, directly and indirectly employs 860,000 Americans, according to Germany.

Link also met with Democratic officials, but his primary mission is to lobby those who can influence Trump.

According to Reuters, Japan is preparing to send Sunao Takao to strengthen diplomatic contacts with the Trump camp. Takao, a Harvard graduate, previously worked as a translator for interactions between former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Trump, notably during their personal relationship-building through golf.

Before Sunao Takao began his private diplomacy, another former Japanese Prime Minister, Taro Aso, held a private meeting with Trump at Trump Tower in New York on April 23. The two reportedly met for about an hour.

Aso, who studied at Stanford University in the US, served as Japan’s Prime Minister from 2008 to 2009. At 83 years old, he still holds a significant role in Japan’s political landscape and continues to be the Deputy President of Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party. He leads the Aso faction within the LDP.

Upon Aso’s entrance to Trump Tower, Trump expressed his fondness for Aso, stating that he knows Aso through their “common and cherished friend Shinzo Abe.”

It is believed Japan is concerned that if Trump returns to the presidency, he may revisit trade protectionism, increase tariffs, and require Japan to provide more funds to support the US military presence in Japan.

However, Aso’s recent visit to the US and meeting with Trump was referred to by Japan’s Foreign Minister as Aso’s “personal activity,” stating that the government was not involved.

Mexican government officials have been meeting with individuals close to Trump, discussing issues such as immigration along the US-Mexico border and the transportation of synthetic opioid drugs like fentanyl to the US. If Trump returns to office, Mexico may face increased pressure from the US on these issues.

During his campaign activities, Trump pledged to “properly use special forces” from the Pentagon to target the leadership and infrastructure of Latin American drug cartels known as “cartels.” However, this might not align well with the Mexican government’s stance.

Mexican officials are also discussing the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was last renegotiated during Trump’s presidency in 2020. A review of the agreement is due in 2026. Trump recently stated in public speeches that he would gladly re-sign the agreement.

The ruling party in Mexico is also considering appointing another candidate as the next Foreign Minister, depending on whether Trump or Biden is more likely to win the US election in November.

Mexico is set to hold a presidential election in June. If the ruling party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, wins as expected, she would take office in October, just a month before the US election.

Sources told Reuters that if the polls indicate Trump is likely to win, Sheinbaum may choose Marcelo Ebrard as the Foreign Minister.

Ebrard served as Mexico’s Foreign Minister during Trump’s previous presidency and is widely seen domestically as someone who can stand his ground when dealing with the Trump administration.

A senior European diplomat told Politico, “We are trying to contact Republicans and people around Trump as much as possible,” to win his support, although it is “very difficult.”

A source familiar with the matter informed Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince recently called Trump, while leaders of Hungary and Poland held personal meetings with Trump in recent weeks.

Trump’s 2024 campaign team stated that Trump discussed security issues with every European leader, including a proposal put forth by Polish President Andrzej Duda to have NATO member countries allocate at least 3% of GDP for defense, one percentage point higher than the current 2% target.

Brian Hughes, Trump’s adviser, said, “Meetings and calls from world leaders reflect our understanding of the known situation in the country. Joe Biden is weak, and when President Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the world will be safer, and America will be more prosperous.”

Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for Trump’s campaign team, stated, “America’s allies are anxiously hoping for President Trump to be re-elected.”