Homebound Tickets and Train Tickets Now at “Rock-Bottom Prices” – Analysis: Chinese Citizens Are Out of Money

During this year’s Spring Festival travel rush in mainland China, the prices of plane tickets and train tickets have shown a “reversed abnormality”, with promotional tickets as low as one-tenth of the regular price appearing before and after the Chinese New Year, contrasting sharply with the usual price hikes during the holiday period in previous years. Economic analysts attribute the drop in ticket prices during the travel rush to factors such as weak employment, further highlighting the reality of China’s economic downturn and a significant decrease in the spending power of the population.

The phenomenon of ticket prices for transportation during the Chinese Spring Festival travel rush, known as the “largest population movement on Earth,” has been garnering attention as discussions such as “plummeting air ticket prices” and “70% off airfare” continue to make headlines in the media.

According to a report by Voice of America, a test conducted on the Ctrip travel platform revealed that economy class airline tickets departing from Shanghai to destinations such as Qingdao, Shenyang, Wuhan, and Dalian within a week starting from January 29 were priced as low as 200 yuan, representing a discount of up to 90%.

The flight ticket price reduction list by Qunar.com shows that the tickets to Hainan and Sanya from January 26 to 29 had discounts of at least 50%, with the price from Shanghai to Sanya on January 28 dropping by 54%, a decrease of over 500 yuan.

According to a report by CCTV on January 28, the total inter-regional population flow in Chinese society reached 250 million by the 27th, with 39% of the population returning home and 37% going out for leisure. The Civil Aviation Administration of China previously estimated that during the 40-day period of the Spring Festival travel rush from January 14 to February 22 in 2025, the combined travel for family visits, work, study, and tourism is expected to hit a record high of 9 billion people.

Data from the Chinese travel platform “Flight Keeper” shows that as of January 23, the average pre-tax ticket price for domestic flights in China during the Spring Festival travel rush was around 882 yuan in the economy class, marking a 4.6% decrease compared to 925 yuan in 2024.

Train tickets have also witnessed a similar decrease in prices. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on January 24, there are train routes with ticket prices comparable to public buses, with the lowest being 2.5 yuan for a train ride from Kaiyuan to Shenyang, offering a discount rate of 1.6%.

Discussions on Weibo highlight the situation, with Jiangxi financial blogger “Hongshu West Bank” pointing out that airlines usually significantly increase capacity before the New Year, but this year despite the increased capacity, the number of passengers didn’t rise proportionally, leading to an oversupply of tickets and price reductions.

Sichuan financial blogger “Achao_HKMediaPerspective” mentioned in a post that the occurrence of “rock-bottom prices” for train and plane tickets is a measure taken by the railway and aviation sectors to cope with the peak period of the Spring Festival travel rush.

China Eastern Airlines Captain Lin, who flies routes to the Americas, stated to Voice of America that the surge in demand during the travel rush is a false proposition. If the transportation tickets were genuinely in high demand, prices would not have dropped; the price reduction is a strategy to expand market share in a limited market.

Captain Lin explained, “The main reason for the price drop is the actual shrinking demand. By lowering prices, we can attract more demand in the market. If people don’t have much money in their pockets, they are less likely to take flights. By decreasing prices, we might uncover some additional demand.”

He added that the overall trend towards cheaper prices is determined by the market because airline market departments cannot control how much money people have in their wallets.

Captain Lin described the current travel pattern as “all about saving money.” For the Chinese aviation industry, the main competitor in the domestic market is the railway sector, which, coupled with the rapid development of electric vehicles in recent years, has further segmented the market for inter-provincial travel.

Assistant Professor Lai Rongwei from Longhua University in Taiwan mentioned that people’s willingness and ability to spend have sharply decreased. Many individuals who are unemployed or have experienced a significant income decline may consider air tickets a luxury this year. Some may still be able to afford them but would prefer to save money. Consequently, many people are likely to opt for motorcycle rides or rent electric vehicles at a more affordable price to return home for the New Year.